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Where to now for Geelong, given their humbling at the hands of Fremantle down at their home fortress?
The reigning premiers have won nine and lost nine, thrown in a draw for good measure, and sit ninth on the ladder. In fact, ninth, tenth and eleventh on the ladder are occupied by Geelong, Sydney and Richmond – three clubs that have tried to orchestrate a way to stay ever competitive in the face of equalisation.
Some pundits and even Cats fans may have thought that they could contend again this year, if only they could build momentum and do some damage in September. It’s not going to happen.
Every season, it seems there’s a fading powerhouse that appears as if they could make a run at the flag. It’s a nice narrative, but it’s never actually happened.
The middle of the ladder is jam-packed at the moment. Sydney are on the rise again. Richmond are desperate to make finals in order to justify their investment in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper. Adelaide and Essendon have reasons to cling to hope, and a run home that gives them a chance. These teams are going to keep giving it all they’ve got.
Patrick Dangerfield. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Geelong, meanwhile, have Port, Collingwood and finals-bound St Kilda and Western Bulldogs. Do they put the cue in the rack, slide to 13th, and hit 2024 with a great draft pick and a full rest for the first time in eight years?
It’s not even slightly in Chris Scott’s DNA of course, even though it would be for the best. They don’t fear any of the teams above them either, but have just never really got going this year.
Injuries have been a factor, with the engine room impacted most of all.
2022 co-best and fairest Cam Guthrie has played only six games. Patrick Dangerfield missed a couple of months. Rhys Stanley was out for 10 weeks. Mitch Duncan hasn’t been free of injuries since Doug Wade was playing full-forward. Isaac Smith has run out of steam as the season has gone on, and looked perilously close to falling off a cliff.
Max Holmes is exceptionally talented but still so young, and has started to have a few down games after shouldering more of a burden than he can rightfully carry. Tom Atkins has been thrust into the midfield, and he’s magnificently valiant, but is in a role that’s too big for his ability and athleticism. Tanner Bruhn isn’t there yet.
The upshot is that the Cats have been consistently destroyed in the midfield.
The backline is the only reason this team is still some chance of making finals, and even then it’s as much about Tom Stewart as it is the back six. The forward line still has the experience and knowhow of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, Gryan Miers is having a career year, and Ollie Henry is making down payments on an exciting future every week.
(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The thing with Geelong is that they’ve always relied largely on specific personnel, which makes sense given they’ve mostly been selected and hand-picked, either from other clubs or mature age, being brought in to cover a weakness or fill a hole. This wasn’t a dynasty that has been raised together. As such, they have struggled to cover the weight of losses.
Zach Tuohy will surely hang up the boots at year’s end. Duncan perhaps should, with Jack Bowes being groomed as a poor man’s version. Smith should make way for the Mitch Knevitt/Oliver Dempsey types, but will he?
The path of a premiership team is always followed closely. Geelong being the oldest team to win on grand final day meant their follow-up was in danger of being something exactly like this.
What they look like in Round 1 next year will be intriguing, and what sort of season they can put together, doubly so.