The Wallabies’ clash with the All Blacks in Dunedin is the final match before the World Cup squad is selected, meaning it’s anything but a dead rubber for the players on both sides who are yet to book a ticket to Paris.

For Eddie Jones, the importance of this final week of training and game is huge, he will name his Rugby World Cup squad on August 10th.

The wider Wallabies coaching staff are the ones in the hotseat after the performance in Melbourne at the weekend. It is they who must show the rugby public the culmination of their collective nous and time together with the players. For the players themselves it’s about being smart and playing without fear.

Jones says if you can’t turn a team around in a week then as a coach you’re not worth your salt; his staff must turn the hot ’n’ cold performance in Melbourne into a complete one in Dunedin.

Eyes up rugby

Jones has consistently spoken about ‘decision making,’ and good decision making can be shown in a myriad of ways, but usually it’s about being coached to see a certain ‘picture’ or series of events take place and then have a reflex reaction to that ‘picture’.

As seen here Andrew Kellaway gets up for a high-ball, the clash with Will Jordan ends up a stalemate and the ball spills into midfield.

Eight Wallabies can be seen in shot who are all closer to the ball than the chasing All Blacks, yet it’s Scott Barrett who wins the race to the ball.

Where is the communication? Who is surveying the chase line, telling Tate McDermott or Allan Alaalatoa to dive on that ball and make it theirs?

It’s a lethargic reaction to a situation, an error, which results in Shannon Frizell scoring a try the very next phase.

It’s a series of mistakes from several players, that’s what pressure does to a player, it clouds their judgement. The players believe they must find an alternative solution to a problem they’ve solved countless times before.

A prime example of players succumbing to pressure and moving away from process and reason is when Mark Nawaqanitawase can be heard talking to and screaming at Angus Bell to stay with him on the blindside in the 19th minute.

“Come, come” Nawaqanitawase says to Bell.

“Yeah, I got ya, I got ya, I got ya” Bell replies.

However, Bell proceeds not to hold, but rather to fold around to the openside, leaving Nawaqanitawase and McDermott to cover seven All Blacks in a 10m channel.

“Belly hold, Belly hold, Belly!” Nawaqanitawase screams, with slight desperation on the last ‘Belly’.

Nawaqanitawase in the next three minutes can be heard telling Rob Valetini to do the same and tells Tom Hooper “Eyes up,” all three fail to react to the picture in front of them.

For someone whom Jones has described as having “scant” rugby knowledge (said after after Nawaqanitawase’s stellar performance against the Pumas in Sydney) he seems to be the only one with his eyes wide open.

The blindside was something Ian Foster and co had identified as a potential soft spot for the Wallabies before the game and Aaron Smith being one of the best halfbacks in the world didn’t need a second invitation, he went there as early as the first minute.

It is a deficiency in the Wallabies’ defensive structure which has been identified quickly by an opposition and they have failed to fix it in three games. The lack of problem solving on the run is also worry.

Defence and winning the collisions

Brett Hodgson’s defensive system seems to be functioning better for every game it’s deployed and the many tackles that are being made seemingly have more sting in them, but a quote from former defence coach Laurie Fisher on the Roar’s podcast cannot be shaken.

“Is he (Brett Hodgson) also talking about what is our contest policy between the 15s, what do you do in our own 22?… I didn’t see a designated policy of how we’re going to get some pressure on their ball,” Fisher said on the Roar’s podcast with Harry Jones and Brett McKay.

The system is improving, players are making their tackles and a few individual misreads are occurring but yet certain ‘pictures’ aren’t flicking a switch in the player’s minds as evidenced by the Nawaqanitawase and Bell clip above.

Counter-rucking

Ruck percentage is still a problem for the Wallabies and it’s something forwards coach Neal Hatley and co must address.

Under Dave Rennie the Wallabies employed the counter-ruck masterfully in their first two years (especially in 2021) and they got pay out of it once again at the MCG at the weekend.

Counter rucking is a safer option regarding discipline and energy efficiency, especially if you are not an on-ball specialist. Counter-rucking keeps you on your feet and as an active member of the ruck as opposed to a stagnant target for a cleaner to smash.

If Jones wants to pick and stick with taller and bigger bodies, Hatley and co must use that advantage, instructing the players to maintain a height where they can be competitive.

Tackle technique, truck & trailer

While Brett Hodgon’s system is improving each game, elements like tackle policy and how that changes throughout the field must be addressed.

The two arbitrary ways to categorise tackling is the low chop tackle, getting your man to ground as quickly as possible or the ball-and-all tackle to try to hold-up and prolong the formation of a ruck, and therefore the next phase.

The ball-and-all tackle seems to be Hodgson’s school of thought, coming from a league background it is not surprising.

Watching the game back for a fourth time it showed how often Wallabies were staying high in the tackles and when they failed to hold-up the player, they threw the ball carrier to the ground and went for the pilfer. Whilst they kept their feet often, they were also conceding at least half a metre in each tackle.

The Wallabies are getting off the line so the yardage conceded doesn’t prove catastrophic, but it means as the ruck is forming, surrounding Wallaby players must retreat half a yard before going forward into the breakdown or for the pilfer.

Without a worldclass on-baller the task of pilfering in this set-up is close to impossible. You can only pilfer once a player is on the ground and Hodgson’s ball-and-all system is to delay the formation of the ruck and that gives the opposition ample time to arrive and clean-out.

These videos highlight two contrasting things, firstly; how low and connected the All Blacks players are. Secondly, the ball-and-all tackle approach by the Wallabies, where in every tackle the Wallabies player is higher than their opposite.

The supporting All Blacks time their entry perfectly, you can see them charging-up and accelerating into the breakdown. Meanwhile the carrier always keeps their feet until support is close enough to clear, and keeping their feet until the opportunity is right is not an issue against the Wallabies defensive policy.

Contrast this with the Wallabies in the two videos below; the body height of the ball carrier and the supporting players are too high, and the timing is off from the cleaners.

In the Bell carry, the support players are too high and so that ruck takes several seconds to clear.

In the Nick Frost video, he gets isolated because the All Blacks policy of chop-tackling brings Frost down quickly and his support is slow to react to his change of angle. Frost, like the All Blacks players must communicate and keep his feet, however his support must also communicate.

The video also shows that the All Blacks’ policy is to go low, every tackle regardless of whether you’re two-meter tall Brodie Retallick or Aaron Smith at just over 5.7ft, you hit the legs. It’s an efficient and clear mandate.

Part of this Wallabies strategy is under Hodgson’s remit, but some is down to Hatley.

It would be remiss to not acknowledge how simple All Blacks’ forward coach Jason Ryan has made it for his men; leave no daylight between the carrier and support players, flood that breakdown.

Similarly, Hatley must be clear about what he expects of his pods and how they attack the ruck.

Meanwhile, Hodgson should go full league with it and mandate a two-man tackle: first one high to wrap the ball, second man low and driving the player back whilst keeping their feet. Again, it appears the plan is missing a few pieces or still getting up-to-speed, however overall, it’s improving.

These are small but significant differences between the detail and clarity within the two sides.

Attacking off nine or 10

The Wallabies must manipulate the defence and it’s not happening when they’re playing off the halfback. This falls on attack coach Brad Davis, to instruct his players to see the picture in front of them and play accordingly, as well as playing to the teams strengths.

In Melbourne the Wallabies’ attack flowed the best it has all year. Carriers were getting over the gain-line, cleaners were more efficient, and Carter Gordon was getting plenty of touches.

The issues started when McDermott began darting around the ruck and giving the ball to one-off runners. In the 12th minute McDermott distributed the ball to isolated dummy runners on several occasions. He does so again in the 29th minute and 47th minute.

This is not to attack McDermott but merely to highlight how decision making and a perhaps a lack of clear instructions creates confusion for players under pressure.

Whether it’s Nawaqanitwase, Samu Kerevi or Will Skelton, the speed at which McDermott distributes and its effect is nullified by picking lone runners.

His decision making put the Wallabies on the backfoot. It forced them to break shape to save their isolated teammates and gave the All Blacks an easy defensive picture.

Playing off 10 is the Wallabies’ biggest attacking work on. Unless you’re Aaron Smith, playing off nine doesn’t give you enough width and the defensive line can advance and remain intact.

Playing flat off 10 invites individual error from defences and provides chinks in their armour. Once the hunter tackler (A.K.A the tacklers following on the inside close to the ruck) begin to fall into a false sense of safety that’s when inside balls from a darting halfback or a one out runner from the ruck coming around the corner (as seen above) can be effective.

A final note, without Will Skelton in the starting side the Wallabies maul looks to be without teeth. Maul consultant Pierre-Henry Broncan has had his work cut-out for him this week, trying to turn around the disaster from the MCG. The Wallabies’ maul was blunted and splintered when they had the ball and ineffective when defending the oncoming black horde.

Whether it’s the rookie defence coach, the English forward coach or the French maul consultant, or even attack coach Brad Davis this coaching group must start proving themselves to Wallabies supporters. Jones is catching grenades for a teething player group and newly formed coaching cohort.

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The Wallabies have the team and skill to challenge this All Blacks team, it’s just whether they can flick the switch and keep it on for the full 80.

Players are fighting for plane tickets and the hearts of Australian fans, perhaps Forsyth Barr can be the place where Jones’ “one thing” to change the Wallabies finally happens.