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Three rounds to go before finals – and surely the eight has never looked shakier this deep into a season!
The top four are just about locked in, but from Carlton in fifth all the way down to Gold Coast in 14th, ten teams are a live chance of squeezing their way into finals should they clean sweep their last trio of games: or, if you’re after realistic chances to make the eight, there are still probably eight fighting for four spots.
As for those top teams, Collingwood have had more doomsday predictions about their season than most minor premiers in recent memory, and they get first crack to silence the doubters when they take on Geelong to start the round. With Port Adelaide also looking to bounce back from a poor recent run and Brisbane and Melbourne hoping the good times just keep on rolling, only one match for the weekend doesn’t have major finals permutations – and that’s the Western Derby, which is big in its own right.
We’re all set for another mouth-watering weekend of sport (you might have heard the Matildas are playing midway through it as well?) – so let’s find out who our experts have backed to come out of it smiling!
Last week: 7
Geelong, Essendon, Sydney, Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Port Adelaide
Not that my season could get any worse, but I’m seven behind Liam Salter and there are three weeks to go. It’s time to go rogue.
That’s where I’m starting the round, at least – Collingwood are favourites and deservedly so, but can’t help feeling like they’ll need a week to adjust to the Nick Daicos-sized hole in their team. Geelong have issues of their own, with Tom Hawkins, Cam Guthrie, Mark Blicavs and now Jack Henry on the sidelines, but I give them enough of a chance for them to be my tip if you’re like me and are desperate to try and gain a few points in the run home.
I’m not mad enough to tip North Melbourne to knock over Essendon, even in Ben Cunnington’s farewell game; nor Gold Coast to make it three consecutive wins at the SCG against Sydney. The Swans are in good form, and the Bombers just have too much to lose to drop these games.
Adelaide, despite a casualty ward now starting to resemble the 1980s Transformers movie (I guess in this analogy Tom Doedee is Optimus Prime?) have fought manfully to still be in the finals hunt with three weeks to go, but they’re one loss from oblivion and I reckon Brisbane in Brisbane will provide them with one. Not that anyone will be watching, what with the Matildas kicking off midway through.
As for Saturday night, there’s one game that could get seriously ugly – the Western Derby, which Freo should win or have hell to pay – and one that has the makings of a classic. Melbourne and Carlton, of course, played one of the games of the season last year, and sitting second and fifth on the ladder as arguably the two form teams of the competition, it’s a mouth-watering affair.
The Blues have so many outs, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that right now, they’re the best team in the competition. Especially if you’re like me and think the Dees aren’t going as well as the win column indicates: they were ghastly in the first quarter and a half against North Melbourne last week, and have a suspicion Clayton Oliver might be a tad rusty in his first game since May.
Like with the Cats, that’s enough for me to jump on an upset – can’t wait for the Blues to let me down again.
As for Sunday, St Kilda, for all their problems, really should be taking care of a flatlining Richmond whose season is shot and whose record at Marvel Stadium is approaching the dreaded ‘Bulldogs in Geelong’ level of misery. This should be a tense game, though, as will Port Adelaide hosting GWS to finish the weekend: that Port don’t have a whole host of outs despite rumoured illness is enough to have me back them in, despite having the suspicion the Giants are playing better footy right now.
Oh, and the Bulldogs head to Tasmania to play Hawthorn. I’m tipping them, but I’ll be honest: I wasn’t kidding last week when I said you should be terrified about your team facing the Hawks. I definitely am.
Darcy Moore. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 7
Collingwood, Essendon, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Melbourne, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Port Adelaide
If Freo could have just held on, I’d have got a 9. Round 21 would have made up for my diabolical previous week and made a few of the comments look a little silly.
Still, we’re at the business end of the season and everything is up in the air – what a glorious time to watch footy. Plus, they’ve scheduled the Tillies during the Saturday twilight game, so only two screens needed!
Geelong’s season is on the line and they’ve caught a Magpies team in a little lull period in their impressive campaign. The table-toppers don’t need to win again this home-and-away season really, but the Cats were far from convincing against a more impressive Port. I’m leaning Collingwood.
North put in an improved performance as expected, while the Bombers were anything but impressive. Still, you’d think they’ll keep their finals chances open. At the same time, there are few teams as proficient at playing at an away venue as Gold Coast are at the SCG. Truthfully, Buddy’s retirement came at the right time for Sydney, who look far better structured offensively, but this isn’t an easy match-up for them.
In fact, upset alert: this could end up costing the Swans a finals spot.
Brisbane will win at home against the Crows, but I’m glad their true colours have started to show. The thing is, despite all the confusion and volatility, we’ll still see the current top four teams as the preliminary finalists – we just know which of these teams are legit, and which are the Lions.
Anyone else pumped for the Blues-Demons clash? Clayton Oliver’s return is extremely handy and puts the game firmly in Melbourne’s favour. Carlton is really somewhere between the outlandishly positive current opinions of them and the outrageously negative thoughts from two months ago. They can drop this game.
The Dockers too, are firmly in favour of winning their fifth straight Derby over West Coast.
Sunday’s fixtures though, are tough. My thoughts on Hawthorn are no secret and some will think this Tassie game is in their favour, but I think they’ve shown enough and will shut up shop a bit now. 2024 is their year. This game will help cement the Bulldogs’ finals spot, and with so much to play for I think they’ll do enough.
You’d normally never pick Richmond at Marvel Stadium, but Trent Cotchin just announced his retirement, you say? The Saints are generally a bogey team for the Tigers… but they watched the Steph Curry documentary?
My tip is more throws called in this game than any other this season, including a behind the back clearance, and Richmond to win.
Finally, at time of writing, 10 Port players missed training with illness. I can’t see them losing four in a row and they’re actually playing well, but the caveat here will be if they have mass changes again – with half a side out GWS are good enough to capitalise at a venue where they’ve had plenty of success..
Kysaiah Pickett of the Demons kicks a goal to defeat Carlton. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Last week: 7
Geelong, Essendon, Sydney, Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Port Adelaide.
Sticking with mostly favourites has worked pretty well for me in recent times, but I’m changing that up for Round 22. Why? Let’s just say I’ve got a funny feeling about this run home.
Let’s speed run through the easy games first. Essendon might be pushed like North Melbourne, but while they got out of jail against West Coast last week, it’s hard to see them being so complacent yet again. Fremantle, too, should comfortably account for the Eagles to make it dual Western Derby wins in an otherwise miserable season.
Home ground advantage should get Sydney and Brisbane over the line in clashes with Gold Coast and Adelaide that would be supremely tricky on the road; the Western Bulldogs have a stronger midfield than Collingwood’s and should hold firm against a Hawthorn team I suspect played their grand final last week; and St Kilda will beat Richmond because the Tigers don’t really do Marvel Stadium.
That leaves three tricky games to make or break the round. Collingwood, for all the tales of their demise during the week, are on top and have the depth to cover Nick Daicos’ absence, especially given the Cats have plenty of absences of their own. However, I’ve got an inkling the Pies might just be running out of puff, and with Geelong a tricky proposition at the best of times, they seem primed to wrap up the finals berth that has been in jeopardy for virtually the whole season.
Port Adelaide are supremely vulnerable against GWS in the last game of the round; it’s mostly the fact they’ve been excellent all year at Adelaide Oval against interstate teams that has me leaning in their favour here. This could sneakily be the best game of the round, and a good test to see if the Giants are just going to be elimination final cannon fodder this year or could make a deeper September run like in 2019.
But it’s Saturday night where the biggest blockbuster of the weekend lies: the two most in-form teams in the game, Melbourne and Carlton, at a sold-out MCG fresh off the Matildas game. I love the Blues’ resurgence, and if they had even one of Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra and Matt Kennedy available, I’d certainly be tipping them with confidence. But a Demons team with Clayton Oliver back is going to be all but impossible to bully around the ball as the Blues have done for the last seven weeks.
Screw it, though – Carlton to win, and the lid to officially blow off.
Trent Cotchin celebrates. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 6
Collingwood, Essendon, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, GWS
We’re into the final three rounds of the season, and we’re into a stretch of games that can make or break the top eight. How delightfully frustrating for us, your humble expert tipsters.
The Magpies are fallible, as it turns out. Last week’s surprise loss to the Hawks was their second in succession (but only fourth of the season) and laid out a blueprint for beating them. Step one, Cats: tag Nick Daicos. Step two: scratch that, he’s out for a while.
In all seriousness, the Cats got themselves back into something of a grove with a strong win last weekend and know the Pies will be somewhat vulnerable here. I’m much more convinced with Collingwood’s fortitude to bounce back, and think the Cats are leaving it a little too late to fully resuscitate their season.
Saturday’s early game won’t break any quality records, but is nevertheless vital for Essendon’s chances of making finals. The Dons flew frighteningly close to the edge last week – prevailing by a solidary point over the Eagles is more or less a loss – but should be good enough over North, while I’m also going the Swans over the Suns. The visitors have, however won the last two clashes at the SCG, though Sydney have their eyes on a large prize – finals.
On to a stretch of games – all of which have the potential to be very good, in different ways – that nobody is going to watch. The perils of sharing a timeslot with the incredible Matildas, eh?
The Crows are essentially riding a streak of elimination finals from here on out, and a tough clash with Brisbane is this week’s adventure. The Lions are splendid at the Gabba, which makes this daunting for the visitors, and while it’ll be closely run, I’m much more comfortable backing in the hosts.
The Western Derby, too, should be morbidly intriguing – if only for the fact that the Eagles could have pinched March’s encounter while being truly crap, and they’re slightly better now. The Dockers have revived their own form enough for this the Eagles to not be a problem, but I’m inherently nervous.
Carlton are, annoyingly, very good at the moment, and this is a significant clash with another very good side in Melbourne. It’s genuinely very hard to pick this one – the Blues have proven they can beat the best, but the Dees gaining Clayton Oliver back may be irresistible. I’ll flip a coin and go them.
Speedrunning through Sunday, the Dogs will have intently watched the Hawks’ win over Collingwood and uttered a few prayers. The fact they’re in Tassie must make Luke Beveridge nervous, though if the Dogs are a genuine finals side, they’ll be winning this.
The Saints are a finals side courtesy only of the ‘7’ next to their name, but I’m backing them here purely because I can’t get a read on the Tigers. while I’m brave enough to pick the Giants in an upset but cowardly enough to not explain why.
Just the vibe – and Port’s LLLL form on the ladder.
Andrew Gaff. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
| Round 22 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL vs GEE | GEE | COL | GEE | COL | COL |
| NM vs ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS |
| SYD vs GCS | SYD | GCS | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| BL vs ADE | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| CAR vs MEL | CAR | MEL | CAR | MEL | MEL |
| WCE vs FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| HAW vs WB | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| STK vs RCH | STK | RCH | STK | STK | STK |
| PA vs GWS | PA | PA | PA | GWS | PA |
| LAST WEEK | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 111 | 122 | 120 | 118 | 128 |
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