Ten days before the Rugby World Cup and nerves are jangling. All hat and no cattle?

We are about to find out if teams are all berets, flat caps, bucket, khaki goat or gaucho hats, tam o’ shanters, and akubras, or if they properly have the cows to make it home.

After all the team sheets have landed, Scott Barrett has been cleared to pound more hallways, here is the form ranking of power as the tournament begins.

1. France

How can anyone go past the hosts? French rugby has the most money, the best media deals, the finest defensive coach, the coolest headman with Bond villain glasses, and the most size.

Paul Willemse is the only lock comparable to Will Skelton, but even the French inside centre Jonathan Danty could play prop, Damian Penaud is as tall as a lock, Gael Fickou is the same reported height and weight as Donald Trump, and Uni Atonio is under consideration to be named the solar system’s newest planet.

But in all seriousness, every proper study shows a slight benefit to home teams. France is notoriously nationalistic, and their rugby team is maniacally popular with the nation at large, as it has looks, charisma, diversity, and flat-out cockiness. The moving billboards of Nice and Nantes show Antoine Dupont in suits, pajamas, and in his birthday suit. The skyline of Lyon has Charles Ollivon in lights; Greg Alldritt is modeling for Printemps.

It is all so auspicious. It seems to be going to plan. There is redundancy in most positions; and France is more in line with past champions in their willingness, indeed eagerness, to play without the ball.

Every team has injuries. But Romain Ntamack is not clearly superior to Matthieu Jalibert, and neither are the primary playmaker (Dupont steers this ship), nor goalkicker (the impeccable ball striker Thomas Ramos is).

Cyrille Baille’s absence at scrum was exploited by Wallaby strongman Angus Bell but that is one of the few holes in the host’s game.

The biggest hole is the trophy cabinet, and specifically, the Six Nations championship cup. Why were they unable to win it in 2023? The answer is: they played Ireland in Dublin.

2. Ireland

If this tournament were staged in Ireland, they would top this list along with World Rugby’s rankings. Andy Farrell’s team is unbeaten for more than a year.

Their structures are superb, but one wonders, when the heat is full blast on, and animal spirits are fully ignited, can that pretty architecture in the pass hold up? The Samoan Test suggested Ireland is still a wee bit susceptible to an old-fashioned bullying.

However, calm consistency has its own sort of lasting power, and no team is cleaning rucks as well, legally, and fast as Ireland, which gives them the two-second rucks Jamison Gibson-Park and Johnny Sexton need to keep their merry-go-round of Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, Mack Hansen, and James Lowe moving.

Until Dan Sheehan returns, Ireland has two options at hooker, all of whom help their loose forward compatriots. Nobody has a more well-oiled loose trio than the Irish, with the only question mark around a match where the referee swallows his whistle. Nobody builds more rucks than Ireland, which means they have more cleaning duties, and therefore dependency on the referee to rule the road. Luckily for them, the mood is quite whistle-happy.

Finally, the Irish have three top-class locks (a Pool B prerequisite) and a fully vetted backup flyhalf. Ireland will be favoured against South Africa in the pool match, as well as New Zealand if it falls that way, but one imagines the bookmakers will back France in a quarterfinal; thus, numbers one and two could be on a cruel collision course.

3. South Africa

A week ago, New Zealand’s 35 at Mount Smart would have had them at numbers 1-3 but a few days ago, South Africa’s 35 bashed them down to the bottom of the clearly top four.

So, whose 35 was more relevant to the World Cup? Which coaching team can make the case?

On the side of the Springbok case, the first 35 was scored against a makeshift Bok team with seven or eight players having their first run out, for some reason no All Black lineout was ever contested, and the Boks did score three tries during a long period of time they were in control. On the other hand, a unicorn solo try by Cam Roigard with nine minutes left was the All Blacks’ sole answer to the second 35, a run unlikely to come off in a knockout match.

The All Blacks can point to Scott Barrett’s cards as an alibi, but the Boks are known for causing teams to lose their shape and control, essentially forcing penalties. Also, the scrum was plainly dominant, and it is not clear how healthy Ethan de Groot was when he left, heavily strapped.

The carnivorous front rows of South Africa are ominous, the second row lost lineout caller Lood de Jager and added monster Munstermen Jean Kleyn and RG Snyman, Lukhanyo Am was replaced by ripped Jesse Kriel and rapt Canan Moodie, and Siya Kolisi returns to balance the back row perfectly with Pieter-Steph du Toit and a couple of super eights.

Manie Libbok stole Carter Gordon’s kicking tee and now it seems there are two choices for every position except his; albeit Handre Pollard attended every single practice and is just over in the Midlands, a train ride away with tea service.

Thus, a cohesive, trained, fit, and happily and legally violent Bok team seems to have taken the third spot just a tiny bit ahead of the All Blacks. And yet, one suspects Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus would slightly prefer to face France in a quarterfinal than the old foe, because it is so rare to win two in a row over the Kiwis.

4. New Zealand

The tight five improved out of sight since the Irish series and the South Africa and Argentina losses, until Twickenham. The midfield of Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane was imperious, until Twickenham. The double-headed monster playmaker schema of Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett was winning, until Twickenham. Jason Ryan’s maul tutoring was working, until Twickenham, where the All Blacks rushed to a card.

The All Blacks were the form team until Twickenham: old flaws returned. But it was worse than that: the scrum was on rollerblades. It was worse than ever: who has ever had New Zealand down 35-0 with ten minutes to go? Nobody.

The sense is this loss was perfectly timed for Ian Foster and Ryan to make corrections; a bit like England’s 36-0 loss to the Boks in 2007 in the first round, only to resurface in the final.

However, tight five personnel deficiencies are not simple to shore up. Did the All Blacks just get done by bad luck? Was their peak timed just a bit too early? Or is this like a climber up Everest, where you go up, then down, then up again, until you are ready to handle the air.

The main strength of the All Blacks was first their mystique. This has waned. But their second superpower was how easily and fast they could score in bunches.

This is still the case. On their day, they will put 30 or 40 points on any of the top four, win, and keep winning. Regardless of what happens on opening night, the All Blacks can cruise into the quarters, beat either one of the teams they have the most rigorous studies on in the past two seasons, then put away a lesser team, and be in the final where they would fear no one.

5. Scotland

If all we are measuring is how good a team they are, Scotland is fifth best.

They can score easier than the rest of the “next six” and are settled under a canny coach and talismanic game manager. They have a big Afrikaner Android, and a medium one, and a small one just for fun.

But they are not a lock to escape their group; indeed, in the very first weekend, they may be put on the hangman’s scaffold on the docks by South Africa in a steamy, heaving Marseille.

Nothing in their warmups suggested they can withstand a 6-2 or 7-1 punch by the Boks, nor that their inability to score at all at home in a rugged first half against the Lelos of Georgia is a fluke. The Boks have just a wee bit more line speed in their rush umbrella than the Georgians.

Also, Ireland has a perfect possession-heavy style to deny Scotland their platforms.

6. Argentina

Ranking Argentina, England and Australia is difficult because their defects almost cancel each other out. The reason I rank Michael Cheika’s outfit ahead of Eddie Jones’ and Steve Borthwick’s is purely that he has had more time to work out who his players are, what he wants them to do, how they handle real pressure, and develop a culture of winning away.

Argentina has beaten New Zealand in New Zealand, as well as Australia and England in their homes. The hookers and back five of the Pumas are brutal and know how to play old school Test rugby: Marcos Kremer, Juan Martin Gonzalez, Pablo Matera, Facundo Isa, Tomas Lavanini, Matias Alemanno, Guido Petti, Gus Creevy, and an inspiring leader Julian Montoya.

To balance that down, the Pumas’ scrum is as weak as the Argentine peso. No easy exits, no easy entries, and no easy points for their world class kicker Emiliano Boffelli.

Santiago Carreras at flyhalf is not a constant; but Cheika appears wedded to him as starter over Nico Sanchez.

With England looking like they swallowed a barrel of lemons, Argentina is a solid pick to win their opener, and also beat one of Wales, Australia, or Fiji in a quarterfinal, just barely.

7. Australia

The Wallabies could have been in at oranges in Paris 13-13 or down 13-16 with a kicker; and then won the first ten minutes of the second half.

That’s the good news. Also, they won 52 percent of the ball and held 61 percent of the field position, with more time in France’s 22 than vice versa. Plus, they finally got the run-pass-kick ratio right for the first time in 2023: 120 runs, 133 passes, and 28 kicks, developing 29 breaks or busts, and were 3 v 4 in tries.

But look at the scoreboard at the end and it was 17-41, five defeats from five, an average scoreline for the year of 17-36, a two-try negative margin, an average of 194 tackles attempted per match, which is ruinous to bodies, and an average of almost 13 penalties per Test.

No Test for the Wallabies seems to end without an Aussie in the naughty chair. Inaccuracy and impatience and frustration and panic and inexperience is a witch’s brew. This leads to a stressed defence becoming distressed and stretched and this undoes all the good that a growing power game built on Rob Valetini, Angus Bell, Taniela Tupou, Will Skelton, Marika Koroiebete, and Samu Kerevi creates.

Defence wins tournaments; Australia must find one, very quickly.

8. Fiji

The good news for Australia is Wales seems perfectly picked to give the Wallabies a win.

The bad news is Simon Raiwalui has the Fijians doing far more than just flying. It is not all offload and razzmatazz. This is a humble, hard-working team fully committed to winning.

With the Drua team giving his squad a skeleton, the set piece is not an easy beat, and the scrum is Test quality now.

Selestino Ravutaumada can go missing on defence, but more than makes up for it on attack. He beats defenders for fun (eight tackle busts at Twickenham).Waisea Nayacalevu is a beast of an outside centre, next to one of the best players in the world in Semi Radradra. Young Caleb Muntz does not look flustered.

One of the best forwards in the tournament could be Viliame Mata, an old school No. 8 who can put the team on his back. He is backed by tackle monster Lekima Tagitagivalu at flank.

Luke Tagi got the better of Ellis Genge and his hooker mate Sam Matavesi is a top operator.

A week earlier, Fiji did better against France than Australia did, but the working hypothesis is the Wallabies can lift more than Fiji, who may have played the game of their lives already.

9. England

England is dull, vapid, annoying, muddled, and bereft of original thought, at the moment. And yet, they have the makings of a pack that could bash their way into the semifinals. So, whilst they belong behind Samoa, who took Ireland to the brink in Bayonne, they still have Jamie George, Ellis Genge, Maro Itoje, Courtney Lawes, and ten lads who can bounce. Will they? No-one has seen it yet, but prior World Cup experience on the October stage is real.

Marcus Smith, Freddie Steward, George Ford and experienced halfbacks are not an awful start, but the midfield without Henry Slade is woeful.

What they must do to beat Argentina, or then run the tables in the pool is return to a no frills and deadly committed shape of hardness. At present it is just tea and crumpets and screaming.

10. Samoa

Nothing suggests Warren Gatland has a secret recipe to bring the best out of a Welsh side that is at the same time too young and too old.

Thus, we will embrace the effect of World Rugby’s eligibility rules to name hot Samoa, with Steven Luatua and Lima Sopoaga leading the way. When Samoa drove down to the Irish 5 metre line (twice) to try to give them their first loss in an age, it took a streetwise move by James Ryan (on another day, he would have been pinged) to foil them; this is a better loss to Ireland than Wales has managed in a while.

Michael Alaalatoa is Leinster-trained, Theo McFarland is at Saracens, and a core of Moana Pasifika plus French-based players is hungry for more.

Seilala Mapusua is a good coach who believes his team can make the quarters. They beat Japan and Tonga, and while they lag Fiji, it is not by much.