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Pack strength in sufficient depth is a prerequisite to get to a semifinal in the Rugby World Cup. Then, magic and nerve is needed in the backline to win the whole bloody thing.
We set power rankings for the top eight packs; now the backs. Who can score best from entries into an opposing red zone? Who is most accurate at the poles? Which midfield is least leaky? Who has the finishing class on the wings?
Whilst Aussie fans should not be too tied to pack parity or supremacy, there is good news out back: Samu Kerevi and Marika Koroibete can break anyone’s tackles.
The top team in the world has a superb pack, but it is in the backline where runners pick precise lines, a kick is just a pass by another name, and they are patiently confident, led by a future coach at flyhalf.
If Ireland can put nippy Jamison Gibson-Park, wily Jonathan Sexton, rhythmic Robbie Henshaw, greedy Garry Ringrose, manic Mack Hansen, jumpy James Lowe and smooth Hugo Keenan on the pitch for an hour, they will find a way to score tries, and old lion Conor Murray is no slouch off the bench.
Mack Hansen of Ireland, centre, celebrates with teammates Jimmy O’Brien, behind, and Hugo Keenan. (Photo By Seb Daly/Sportsfile via Getty Image
Are they that good in the individual or is it the collective good of coaching and system? The success of Gibson-Park, Hansen and Lowe suggests the latter; how much better would players like Will Jordan, Andrew Kellaway or Ryan Lonergan be in the Irish system?
But regardless, they are that good now. Cohesive, smart, and happy to win. They do not fear a loss and do the small things well. Shifting the ball quickly, going for gaps, and finding support.
Just a bit behind Ireland in the backs are the All Blacks.
But just on the one core skill that happens most: passing on a rope from the deck to the ten on time and target, Smith is supreme.
He now feeds the First of all the Five Eighths in Kiwiland, Richie Mo’unga who looks calmer than before and ready for the rough stuff.
An unusually large midfield of Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane are strange bedfellows who are better on attack than defence, but this seems to be the plan by Uncle Joe Schmidt: get on the front foot rather than soak up pressure. The nightmare of the Irish series win after the Japanese semifinal tragedy forced innovation.
At the back, there are wings hard to tackle, to choose from, but in classic All Black style, two fullback-wings in Will Jordan, he who cannot stop scoring, and foolishly written off Beauden Barrett.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
No team can score more tries in a smaller spurt than them.
But what of Twickenham? We will go with the theory that this was an anamoly.
Unlike Ireland and New Zealand, who attack from their own half at times, France is committed to a Cartesian design of measured defence which transforms into safe points on attack.
The exceptions are well known: but with the missing Romain Ntamack involved or authoring most of those deep attacks, one would expect a Dupont and Thomas Ramos-driven long kick plan to be reinforced.
No matter who is flyhalf, France will play off nine and fullback.
The creative destruction of flanker-centre Jonathan Danty, who is reminiscent of Levani Botia in build, is crucial to this style.
Gael Fickou at 13 feeds off Danty’s collisions.
Opportunist Damian Penaud drifts in and out of games, but when he does click on, he is a rare breed; Kirwanesque.
But it is Ramos who may be the key to all of it. Penalties form a larger percentage of points in knockout games than in pool or normal Tests.
Nobody is kicking better than Ramos: for goal, for territory, for placement, and for real.
Finn Russell could manufacture tries in a tyre factory. He is the mason of meat pies, the ass in assist, the dummies guide to flyhalf, and the alter ego of Gregor Townsend. He cashes the cheques Toonie bounced.
If rugby was as simple as best pack wins, Scotland would lose almost all the time. When they win, it is because they can play off the back foot better than most.
If Australia is to get to a semi and win it, they may have to out-Finn Finn, overcome their hog deficits, koroibete their duhan, and Samu Kerevi must demonstrate to Sione Tuipulotu that there is a gulf between being the third or fourth best Aussie 12 and being the best in a generation.
Scotland can score from nothing. Duhan van der Merwe has shown that many times: any normal exit kick that does not go out can be taken and put under your sticks and you will just wave.
Stuart Hogg’s wise retirement gave Scotland more speed and height at the back with Blair Kinghorn a surprisingly good athlete and not as erratic as the auld bionic hair-and-teeth model.
Huw Jones and Tuipulotu seem to unlock any sort of defence, even Franco-Saffa.
Darcy Graham and Kyle Steyn are danger men, as well.
By the way, Russell is a very fine goal kicker who does better than his peers when the match is on the line; check the stats.
Four and five would be switched if Quade Cooper was in the mix, not due to his playmaking (Carter Gordon is a Russell starter kit) but because his goal kicking has been stress tested and proved in big matches.
Every golfer loses it for a bit, and the best correct it during the round. We cannot know what happens to Gordon or his backup Ben Donaldson when the yips strike, and Nic White is not an 80 minute man.
Still, this backline is lethal if they get a sniff. Even with no possession to speak of, Marika Koroibete scored in the left corner early in two matches this year based on one good pass. He and Kerevi can fracture a defence both ways: creating illusions or winning collisions.
As is often the case for an Aussie team, the nine will be the lynchpin.
Carter Gordon. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Tate has the snipe Nic wishes he had; White has the pass McDermott is still trying to find. Both will be working with a rookie pivot.
In The Rugby Championship this year, none of it worked for long. But when it did work, in tiny patches, it looked lethal.
How can a backline featuring Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse be sixth in the world? Well, it is not even clear if they will be the wings. Makazole Mapimpi and Canan Moodie lurk.
Also, the Bok brain trust has decided Willie le Roux and Damian Willemse are not complementary, but rather interchangeable.
Thus, with magic man Lukhanyo Am out, only three game breakers outside the 9-10-12 axis can be on the pitch at the same time. Shredded speedster Jesse Kriel is an experienced backup for Am, but does not have his hands or feet.
Damian de Allende or Andre Esterhuizen can set a ruck target off first-phase like nobody else except Kerevi.
The wings can all finish, and know le Roux’s passes come out of nowhere. Willemse is now a seasoned utility finisher.
But the 9-10 duo is the issue.
Faf de Klerk seems stuck in 2019. Cobus Reinach and Grant Williams are best in a wide open match unlikely to appear in a World Cup knockout. Jaden Hendrickse is the best of the lot but has almost no game time with Manie Libbok.
And here is the rub: before Twickenham, Libbok was making two or three of five kicks instead of four or all. That is not Bok rugby. That is a problem.
Yes, he can score or create tries against Australia or Argentina in South Africa, or against the All Blacks in a home-away-from-home game in London, but can he control a game in France against the French?
Do we know how he handles a kick for all the big boy marbles when the URC is now the RWC?
The final plot twist in Handre Pollard’s quest to be the Bok starting flyhalf in three straight Cups is yet to be told, but if he comes back in, and plays with Hendrickse or Faf, this Bok backline shoots back up to fourth, which might be just enough to win it all, or third, and then, it is.
Or, Libbok continues to slot his goals at a Bok-rate; then the plot thickens. This group could be holding the trophy at the end, with all reputations enhanced.
Ange Capuozzo did not vanish. He is here. He is ready to rumble in a place very familiar. The Garbisis, Paolo and Allessandro, are also very familiar to each other. Paolo is a fine ten, with an instinctive footballer’s acumen for lines.
Monte Ioane and Paolo Odogwu can find space out wide of veterans like Luca Morisi and Juan Brex.
The Pacific Island nations have gamebreakers (take a look at the Samoa team sheet) but Italy has a shape which fits a Northern cup.
These three teams have very good fullbacks. Big tall strong Freddie Steward, wiry pub brawler Liam Williams, and Mr. Do-it-All Emiliano Boffelli are proper ballers.
All three have two or three other stalwarts: Josh Adams, George North and Dan Biggar from Wales; Pumas halfbacks Gonzalo Bertranou and Tomas Cubelli; and Owen Farrell or George Ford for England.
The issue is they are not scoring tries against top teams from actual backline moves or phases.
Until that happens, despite having more proven and reliable goalkickers than Australia and South Africa, these teams simply do not ask defences enough questions.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.