The mighty Penrith Panthers juggernaut is rolling again and on the cusp of history if they can win three straight NRL premierships – an idea thought almost impossible in what we believe is the tightest sporting competition on the planet.
It is easy for us to sit back and get behind a fairytale story like the New Zealand Warriors or Newcastle Knights, or pump up the tyres of the very impressive Brisbane Broncos, but perhaps that’s more wishful thinking than anything else.
Maybe the Panthers do get knocked off? We may have a new champion in 2023. But there’s so much more to the Panthers than we sometimes give them credit for.
On Saturday at BlueBet Stadium, Shaun Johnson and his merry Māori men fly into town on a wave of momentum and their own private jet.
Some might fear the Warriors, but the Panthers are so comfortable in their own skins and their own system that they should be confident of banishing the Warriors to week two of the finals.
The Warriors have the attack to match the Panthers if they can get their share of possession and field position, but the Panthers are a different beast.
Nathan Cleary. (Photo by Matt Blyth/Getty Images)
This game won’t come down to flashy moments – although, no doubt, there will be some.
Andrew Webster’s team must play the defensive game of their lives. Not only when Nathan Cleary and the Panthers squeeze them for repeat sets of six and kicks into the in-goal on the try line.
The Panthers, like a giant boa constrictor, can get you long before you know you’re gone. Just when you think you have them where you want them, when you think you can relax, they go bang and you’re left in the in-goal shaking your head wondering what the hell just happened.
Brian To’o is one of the premier wingers on the planet and is devastatingly good at getting over the chalk when others would be shut down or thrown over the sideline.
He’s the Panthers biggest bullet in a huge gun and the Panthers know it.
To the point that many of To’o’s tries are set up by his team minutes earlier and sometimes fifty metres back down field.
Analysis of previous Panthers games this year shows the back-to-back premiers slowly but surely building to positions on the field in preparation to release To’o down the right-hand flank.
It’s so genius that you don’t notice it at first. Pure footy from an outfit absolutely in sync with everything they do.
In round 23, the Panthers played the Melbourne Storm, a side coached by one of the greatest of all-time in Craig Bellamy, with To’o scoring in the 23rd and 50th minutes as the home side ran away 26-6 winners.
With the Storm up 6-0, the Panthers wanted to get To’o the footy but were happy to be patient and bide their time.
Brian To’o, scoring in the corner. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The play starts in front of the posts with a hit-up to James Fisher-Harris before going left to Jarome Luai, then to Stephen Crichton under pressure and takes the tackle. Back to the right with Cleary, who drops a pass off and a tackle made at the left post. At this point, it’s all pretty straight forward and the Storm appear to have it all under control.
But what you don’t see, is because of the activity around the footy and the Panthers around it, the Storm are tightening up and decreasing their line, inch by inch.
More short passing and interchange of play between Cleary, Luai and co and it’s all within a very small piece of the field.
One man not used and hasn’t even touched the ball yet, purposely, is their superstar fullback Dylan Edwards who is now back on the open right side where the intensity and ball speed goes up and the Storm are short out wide and no chance of stopping To’o who scores easily in the corner.
It’s beautiful and all of it planned.
Later in the same match Penrith want to get To’o space close to the line again but it starts back on the fifty with Cleary kicking for touch.
It doesn’t appear there’s much actually happening.
This time, Isaah Yeo takes charge of the set and has several touches as it appears the Panthers aren’t doing anything at all but again, it’s all within one corridor of the field and it’s what’s happening within that small channel that will gift To’o a try at the end of it.
Liam Martin. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The Storm look like they are OK but they are being juiced. Short balls, players in motion, leg speed. Cleary drops a short pass to Liam Martin.
Luai goes to the front runner which entices six – yes six – Storm defenders. When some teams are thinking kick on the last tackle at all costs, the Panthers have the Storm right where they want them and use the final play to run the ball.
Long story short – To’o scores in the corner.
It’s not about getting him one-on-one a metre from the line.
The Panthers do the work to give To’o half a chance, further away from the line, because they know he will do whatever he has to do to get the Steeden over.
Other sides in the NRL get the ball on halfway and are only thinking about getting to the last for a kick and a “see what happens” – the Panthers have set attacking plays that last more than a minute!
Proof of how good they are and their conviction to their art came in their round 24 clash against Manly – even with ‘six agains’ and the Sea Eagles trying to smother their offense, it still ended with To’o grabbing a meat pie.
With a scrum 30 from the Eagles line, the Panthers appear to just trudge the footy into the Manly danger zone but it’s what they do next that drains the poor Eagles into submission.
Play after play, the ball is shifted between Panthers attackers but again, all within a small portion of what they are allowed to use.
Penrith celebrate after winning the minor premiership. (Photo by Izhar Khan/Getty Images)
Cleary charges back into the ruck. On the next play, Yeo gets pressured but he keeps his cool and dumps it Fisher-Harris who resets, another offload. More work for Manly. There’s no thought of going early. They keep the ball tight, more offloads. It’s structured, calm, clinical ad-lib football. They take their time. Scott Sorenson and Jack Cogger are there. There’s the threat at one point of the shift play and a sweep wider but they take it short again.
The Eagles players would be burning by this point. It’s all about the end goal for the Panthers.
The play might be on with Edwards up as an extra playmaker but Zac Hosking is smashed by the covering Manly defender. Ball knocked down by the Sea Eagles – more football for the Panthers.
They’ve seen enough, Manly are beat, completely battered and it’s time for To’o to feed.
Try.
Just last round against North Queensland, they did it again.
Up 16-0, the Panthers took their time. From halfway they toyed with the Cowboys.
Over and over again they hit their opponents with short bursts. Cleary didn’t touch the ball until the final play of the set, surrounded by three black jerseys thirsty for blood, and by then, his looping pass to To’o gave the Cowboys absolutely no chance.
A minute before, North Queensland didn’t think there was a problem.
The Warriors need to remember this weekend that no matter how good they think they are playing, the Panthers are sets ahead of them.
Beware.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
The season is heading into its middle third and there is a clear separation between seven teams who all look playoff bound and the…
Nicho Hynes has not quite made an undeniable case to be Nathan Cleary’s halves partner for NSW but he should be the first five-eighth…
The Sharks halfback backed it up with a try from a few seconds later, through some more tired Canberra defenders.
There is only one Kalyn Ponga but Newcastle have shown they won’t be shot ducks while their Dally M Medal winner is out with…
The Sharks were scoring plenty of points, but equally impressive was their defence - stopping this near certainty!
After the Raiders hooker bombed a near-certain try, Sione Katoa scored at the other end of the field in a 12-point turnaround.
