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It’s crunch time, with eight left and two set to depart this weekend. This is, as anyone familiar with NRL cliche will know, a whole different competition.
That is, of course, nonsense. The finals are the end part of the same competition and thus we can read plenty into what might happen based on what has happened. Stats, baby.
One sense in which it is different, at least to a lot of regular season games, is that everyone is good and thus the games tend to be tighter.
This didn’t actually manifest last year, where Penrith whacked everyone and only two of the nine games were actually close, but given the logjam seen to get into this edition, we should expect some good contests.
The closest games are often decided by individuals, so with that in mind, it’s worth going through the numbers to work out where each game can be won and lost.
Remember Draftstars is the place to put your money where your mouth is on match-ups – and here’s everything you need to know ahead of the first weekend of the finals.
There’s some real blockbusters in this one, but it might just come down to the five eighths as the difference.
Much as the Broncos attack is geared around Adam Reynolds (and how he finds Reece Walsh), the Storm know that move and will see it coming. It’s Mam who is the potential point of difference, especially if they can get him on the ball on the left edge.
The element of surprise won’t be there for Melbourne in terms of Cam Munster being a threat – he’s always their biggest – but he’s a walking element of surprise, one of the best off-the-cuff players in the world.
The end product numbers actually shade towards Mam over the course of the year, with more line break assists and tries, but Munster just does so much in general, even when it doesn’t come off, that he can’t be kept out of a game easily.
The end of his season has been less than stellar, and he himself would admit that his post-Origin form has not been great.
But even so, he puts up stats that most five eighths couldn’t dream of: 130m per game running, for example, would have him as a pretty decent fullback or winger, yet he’s doing it in the six jumper.
His willingness to do the yardage work puts his pure runs numbers similar to Walsh or Latrell Mitchell, without fielding a single kick.
In a tighter game, it’s this kind of bulk work that could make the difference. And though Mam shades it on tries scored, Munster has it in try assists, because he gets far more licence to kick than his Broncos counterpart.
Watch for the possession, though. Melbourne run a split halves system, with Munster and Jahrome Hughes essentially playing both 6 and 7, so the Storm five eighth gets a lot more touches than the average for his position.
If you think the Broncos will have more ball in general, then that might limit Munster – and bring Mam in.
These are fundamentally two teams that like to look after the ball and play the long game.
Much as we think of the Warriors scoring spectacular tries with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak at the corner, they rarely put the moves on until well into position, while Penrith are all about patience and strangling their opponents. This is first v third in completion rates, which shows where the emphasis lies.
That’s why the fullbacks are going to be so vital. Dylan Edwards and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad have long been among the cleanest custodians around, and this year is no different: they make errors so infrequently and start sets so well.
One might think it pretty futile getting into a stats debate with Edwards, but if anyone can, it’s CNK.
He certainly has him for errors, with only James Tedesco and Will Kennedy making fewer among regular fullbacks, and is also slightly better under the high ball – though in the context that both are incredibly good. In attack, too, Charze is a little better in line break assists.
But everywhere else: good luck. Edwards is the league’s leading metre maker, particularly from kick returns, worth 10% more per match than CNK off the same number of runs. He scores more tries, makes more breaks and, when not going himself, engages the line more.
The question will be who gets to do more of what. If Charnze is defending the entire time, it’ll be good for him personally but bad for the Wahs in general.
If the Panthers get their way, their fullback be doing as much as he can of the fun stuff – and, because it’s Dylan Edwards, he’ll probably do all the other bits too.
Nicho Hynes. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
This is not first v third in completion rates – indeed, it’s last v second last. Duly, the emphasis lies elsewhere.
The Sharks run almost everything through their halfback, Nicho Hynes, who averages the most touches per game of any non-dummy half in the comp – shared with Daly Cherry-Evans – and thus has his hands all over the entire attack.
He touches the ball nearly twice as frequently as whoever plays five eighth, which has been split between Matt Moylan and, latterly, Braydon Trindall.
The Roosters don’t run theirs the same way, with Luke Keary and Sam Walker taking a more even-handed role across their halves, but what they have done superbly is to deliver the ball to Walker in the best possible position.
Hynes is always a smart choice for volume work, but with the Sharks, that has often been running up the score against bad teams. Walker tends to do the opposite, saving his best for the big occasion.
Despite Walker’s smaller sample size due to missing bulk games, the stats make interesting reading.
The Chooks’ number 7 scores more himself and makes more breaks, but is well behind on creative metrics, a result of Hynes simply having a lot more opportunity given how central he is to Cronulla’s plan.
It’s an important consideration when comparing the two ahead of a finals match.
Hynes is likely to get less ball and the game is likely to have fewer points than the average regular season game, and the Roosters have the best goalline defence in comp. Walker is more likely to hold his form, and has scored in his last two games since returning.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
The final game of the first week of the finals sees the Raiders travel to Newcastle, and given their differing form levels on the run-in, they’re going there more in hope than expectations.
It would be an almighty puncturing of the Hunter balloon if Ricky Stuart’s men could pull off the upset, but should they do it, you can guarantee Matt Timoko will be at the heart of it.
Canberra have chopped and changed almost everything over the season, debuting a new edge with two games to play, but the most consistent part of their good moments this year have come through Matt Timoko.
He’s be crucial to how they operate on Sunday afternoon – not least because the Knights’ left edge is red hot, with Bradman Best turning a surprise Origin pick into career-best form.
Despite the differing fortunes and supply lines, however, Timoko is more than a match on an individual level.
In attacking output, the pair can barely be split. Best has two more tries across the season, but in a team that scored more in general, but Timoko actually makes more breaks, suggesting that those around him are slightly worse at finishing off what he creates. Just ask Greg Marzhew.
In yardage, there’s nothing in it either, with the Kiwi on top by dint of slightly more work, though on a per-carry basis, it’s another dead heat.
Tackle breaks are a decisive win for the Canberra centre, who sits second only to Dane Gagai in the whole comp, but in terms of helping out the winger with assists, it’s Best. Again, just ask Marzhew.
As ever, factoring in team strength is vital. Newcastle are on a tear and will hope to have the bulk of the ball, but this is Canberra, the team that logic (and stats) forgot.
Nothing would be more like Ricky’s Raiders than to turn up and ruin everyone’s day. If they do, Timoko won’t be far away.