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Opinion
Travis Head’s broken hand is a huge headache for Australia’s World Cup campaign but it also presents them with the possibility of not being so rigid with their batting line-up.
While the good news is Head doesn’t need an operation, the selectors need to decide whether they carry their first-choice opener in their squad for the opening half of the tournament with the hope that he will be right for the closing stages.
His form since returning to the side last year has been phenomenal – 791 runs at 60.85 with a strike rate a tick under 120 before a thunderbolt from Proteas seamer Gerald Coetzee brought his run to a shuddering halt.
As far as a new opening partner for David Warner, the answer is obvious after Mitchell Marsh has excelled in his four knocks at the top of the order this year to tally 265 at 88.33, striking at 130.
Although there has been plenty of hype about his move up the order to No.3, he actually appears better suited to opening as he averages much lower at first drop (22.25) compared to when he was previously used as a finisher (34.13).
David Warner celebrates his century. (Photo by Charle Lombard/Gallo Images/Getty Images)
Replacing him at three is a no-brainer with Steve Smith rising a spot – he prefers to come in after the first wicket and his record backs that up. Smith averages 54.56 with 11 of his 12 ODI centuries coming in that position while that rate sinks to below 35 when he bats at four or lower.
From four to seven is where the Australians should adopt a fluid approach.
If Head is ruled out of the entire tournament, Marnus Labuschagne will replace him in the 15-man squad but despite his recent purple patch in South Africa, the jury is still out on whether he should come straight into the full-strength side.
The knock on Labuschagne is that he is too similar to Smith (not just in their off-field cricket nuffiness) in that he plays a steady role rather than the explosive hitter style that is favoured in modern-day ODIs and is usually needed in Indian conditions.
Glenn Maxwell and Alex Carey are Australia’s best players of spin while Cameron Green is crying out (not literally) for a more substantial role with the bat in the ODI arena.
Green has been not out in seven of his 14 trips to the crease in his 17 ODIs, which has inflated his average to 45.71 even though he’s only hit one half-century, an unbeaten 89 against New Zealand in the not-so-memorable Cairns series 12 months ago.
This suggests he has done his apprenticeship down the order and is ready for a more senior role.
Green has shown in the T20 and Test arenas that he can shine in Indian conditions although he went cheaply in his one 50-over match there in March.
Apart from Labuschagne, the only other realistic option for the four slot is Marcus Stoinis but he’s had more than enough opportunities to cement a spot higher up the order but his best returns have been at six or seven when big-hitting cameos are needed in the final overs.
Back-up keeper Josh Inglis is just six games into his ODI career and after modest returns so far it is highly unlikely the selectors would consider throwing him into the furnace of a World Cup in such a crucial role.
Even in recent times when the T20 influence has inflated scores in ODI cricket even further, roles in the batting line-up are still important but teams like Australia don’t need to be wedded to specific slots for their batters.
If the top order fires to put on a big total inside the first 40 overs, Maxwell and Stoinis are the ideal power hitters to come in at four to convert a sizeable score into a massive one.
But if the first couple of wickets fall quickly, Green and Carey are probably better suited to steady the ship through the middle overs before stepping on the accelerator later in the innings.
The proliferation of all-rounders in the mix for Australia will also give them the ability to have as many as seven or eight bowling options with Maxwell complementing frontline spinners Ashton Agar and Adam Zampa.
Agar’s clean striking means he could be used as high as seven in the line-up, opening the door for the world-class pace trio of captain Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood to all play if there’s enough life in the wickets.
But if the pitches favour spin, the selectors could be forced to leave one of their established pace triumvirate out.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
There has been conjecture that Cummins should be the odd one out even though he’s the skipper if only two quicks are needed.
He’s only played six ODIs in the past two years but with 13 wickets at 17.61 and an economy rate of 4.78, he’s still an elite option in this format.
His record in Asian conditions (31 wickets at 24.7) stacks up well against Starc (37 at 23.1) while Hazlewood (six wickets at 61) has been surprisingly mortal on those wickets in his eight appearances.
Although if you go by the ICC rankings, Hazlewood is rated the best in the world ahead of Starc, who is tied for second spot with evergreen Black Caps left-armer Trent Boult, with Cummins slipping to 20th after peaking at third in 2019.
If recent history is any guide, the selectors will go with all three and either play one specialist spinner with Maxwell as the back-up or drop a seaming all-rounder like Stoinis rather than breaking up the prolific pace trio.