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Well, well, fellow Roarers, it appears that the Land Down Under may need a bit of a chin-up after our fresh-faced, rosy-cheeked youthful band of rugby heroes appear to have bowed out a wee bit earlier than anticipated.
But frette not, dear hommes et femmes, for I have devised a list of secondary activities to keep our spirits high during the remainder of this joyeux tournament.
Before proceeding, let’s acknowledge that the Wallabies still hold the record for the largest winning margin in a final – 23 pts against England in 1999. They were also part of the highest-scoring final in Cup history – the 17-34 loss to New Zealand in 2015. Australia, if they do miss the knock-out phase this year, will retain its solid 63 per cent post-pool winning record, currently only behind South Africa and New Zealand.
So it’s not all doom and gloom, mate!
All events and achievements listed below are based on previous ‘knock-out’ phase results from previous years.
Since 1987, only five countries have actually made a World Cup final.
Along with South Africa, New Zealand, Australia and England, the French have made it to the final previously – but they have the dubious honour of making it three times and always leaving with a soured baguette.
On the flip side, France has also had the most total losses (nine) in the knock-out phases of previous World Cups and has been involved in the equal lowest-scoring knockout game (8-7 against New Zealand in the 2011 final – matched only by the dour 9-6 win by England over Scotland in 1991).
France, oh la la! Let’s get behind the hosts this year as they strive to finally get the chocolats.
As a country that has always embraced the underdog, let’s not forget the lowest-ranked team to ever grace the knock-out phase: Canada in 1987.
This year we have the Samoans and the Japanese still in the mix.
And of course the flying Fijians, who are making a genuine run for a semi-final berth.
From there? Who knows!
Josua Tuisova of Fiji scores against the Wallabies. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
In an area that Australia under Eddie Jones appears determined to improve, let us tip our Akubras to the teams that have managed to best diversify in World Cups past and lose to multiple different countries.
Specifically, we have Ireland and Wales, along with England and France who have all managed to lose to five different nations during previous campaigns. Look at this as a game within the game of “how many countries can we lose to?!”
Keep a keen eye out for historical oddities, much like Italy’s astounding achievement.
They hold the prestigious title of being the team with the highest average world rugby rankings since 2003 to never manage to graduate from their pool and reach the knock-out phase. Magnifico!
When your team departs – all is not lost! Jump onto a proven winner!’
Only eight countries have made it to the semi-finals in the past: South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, England, France, Argentina, Scotland, and Wales. They’re all at it again in 2023, though the Aussies are effectively out, and the Argies and Scots appear less likely to make it to the pointy end this year.
Only four countries have actually won the World Cup since its inception in 1987 – South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and England. Of these, only England has failed to do so more than once.
New Zealand boasts the most total wins in the knock-out phases (15) but South Africa have the best winning percentage at 73 per cent.
New Zealand hold the record for the biggest winning margin in the knockout stage – 49 points against… you guessed it, France in 2015. They also won the highest-scoring game to date, beating Scotland 48-30 in 1995.
This year’s number one ranked side Ireland have never won a knock-out match and historically should avoid France and Australia (no worries there mate!).
Our friends the French love and hate the Kiwis (they’re French) and should also avoid England.
South Africa historically pick on England a lot but can struggle against New Zealand and Australia.
New Zealand like losing most to Australia and France while they love beating Scotland and… France. Go figure.
Whoever you choose, switching to any of the proven achievers – other than Australia – will greatly improve your enjoyment of the latter stages of the tournament.
So, who’s most likely to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand will be ensuring that only two of their number survive the quarter-finals to stagger into the semis this year.
On the other side of the draw, England, Fiji and maybe now the Welsh appear strong contenders.
Mix into this the rapidly burgeoning injury tolls and it might be wise to expect the unexpected. Historically in the semi-finals, upsets are less likely; though nobody told the French in ’87 or again in ’99, or Stirling Mortlock in 2003.
After all, in the current world of rugby union with ample assistance from our comprehensive rulebook and the ever-increasing scrutiny of both on-field and off-field officials, anything can happen!
And it increasingly often does, often with a lovely touch of absurdity.
My prediction for 2023?
France. They’ve earned it.
Sentimental pick? Ireland.
My dream? Fiji.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.