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Teams are heading into the midway block of the Super Rugby season and for many sides it will be crucial to shaping their final fortunes.
For the next three rounds there will be bye weeks for four teams each week, and in a 15 round regular season where each team actually only plays 14 games, it highlights just how vital each game can be.
The teams are fortunate to be afforded a generous eight team finals make-up with the lowest ranked finalists able to scrape through with just a handful of wins.
So, without further ado, let’s take a look at where the Australian teams are ranked and how their next three games could make or break their season.
ACT Brumbies, table position 3rd, power ranking 2nd, win/loss 5-1
The Brumbies, despite looking at a healthy win-loss ledger, have only played one of the current top four sides and they were comprehensively beaten.
However, the men from the capital have been consistently improving, something which can’t be said for the other four Australian sides.
The building cohesion and strength of their set piece will be nicely complemented by the calibre of players who are expected to return from injury over the coming four weeks.
Most notably are Wallabies outside centre Len Ikitau and Australia’s premier tighthead prop Allan Alaalatoa.
Allan Alaalatoa. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The duo will add experience, class and leadership to a side that’s starting to find their rhythm.
Next three games:
The fact that most of their wins have come against teams in the lower half of the table with a tackling average of 80.5 per cent has them on shaky ground so high up on the ladder, especially as they aim up against harder opposition.
First up, the Brumbies play the 10th-ranked Waratahs in Canberra in round 7 before having their bye week.
Their first game back is against the Blues in Auckland in round 9 and then the table topping and undefeated Hurricanes at GIO stadium in round 10.
That two-game stretch is the most difficult successive games of their season, so if they can walk away with one win from that pair of games, it’ll set up their run home nicely and would likely secure a home quarter-final.
Queensland Reds, table position 5th, power ranking 3rd, win/loss 3-3
The Reds have already exceeded expectations, with an upset win over the Chiefs who were competition favourites ahead of the season under new coach Les Kiss.
The impressive win came off the back of a golden point loss against current pole position side the Hurricanes.
Their other two wins were resounding victories, thumping both the Rebels and the Waratahs.
The win against the Chiefs shows promise while the narrow losses against the Canes and Brumbies show they still have work to do in closing-out the tighter games.
Veteran James O’Connor is set to return to the fold soon and although he has his work cut out for him to return to the matchday squad behind some exciting young playmakers, his maturity and calm could be the missing one percent to help the Reds’ kick-on this season.
James O’Connor. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
The next three games:
The Reds have their bye week during round 7, and it’s come at a great time for the Queenslanders.
Kiss has been running key game drivers like the two co-captains Liam Wright and Tate McDermott very hard, both have played most of the minutes this season.
The same goes for locks Ryan Smith and Seru Uru as well as prop Peni Ravai.
The Reds come off the bye and travel straight to Whangarei to take on Moana Pasifika.
Then they’ll make camp in Brisbane for back-to-back home games against the Highlanders in round 9, and Blues in round 10.
The Reds by all accounts can come away with three wins, and by doing so they too could set their sights on a top four finish and a home quarter final, but Kiss will need to freshen up his squad before finals time.
NSW Waratahs, table position 10, power ranking 9th, win/loss 1-5
The Waratahs have been there or there abouts so far this season.
But what appeared to be a huge upset win against the Crusaders in Super Round now looks more to be an ordinary victory.
The win was followed by three consecutive losses by three points or less to the Highlanders, Blues and the Drua in Fiji.
Each defeat showed character, but it was all undone by a six-point loss to the Rebels in Sydney that has painted a very grim picture of their affairs.
Defensively the Waratahs are better than their table position suggests, but with the ball in-hand they’re not greater than the sum of their parts.
The finesse and icing on top are missing; the last pass not going to hand, or a kickable penalty being missed is hurting this side more than any big loss would.
The next three games:
The Waratahs play the snowballing Brumbies in round 7 in Canberra before they welcome the Crusaders to Allianz stadium in round 8.
Round 9 provides the Waratahs with sweet relief and an opportunity to nurse the wounded, because the injury list is long at Daceyville.
Coach Darren Coleman has been leaning heavily on key players Jake Gordon, Jed Holloway, and Langi Gleeson, who have all played big minutes when perhaps they haven’t needed to.
After their bye the Tahs will play the Chiefs in Sydney in round 10.
No travel, a long fortnight of rest and a moment to recalibrate is just what the Tahs need, because if they can win just one of these games, it will go a way to flip the script of their season.
Melbourne Rebels, table position 6th, power ranking 10th, win/loss 3-3
The Rebels are a Jekyll and Hyde side that leak points in big chunks only to score them in similar fashion moments later.
It’s this sort of unbridled power and inconsistency which prevents them from looking a sure top eight finalist team come round 15.
Their three wins have come against the Force, Moana Pasifika and most recently an underperforming Waratahs team.
On the other side of the ledger are three large defeats against the Brumbies, Reds, and Hurricanes, all of whom outscored them by at least 26 points.
The men of Burn City have one of the most powerful scrums in the competition and should key signing Taniela Tupou find his form, it will be a real weapon come the backend of the season.
Taniela Tupou. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)
A leaky defence, misfiring lineout and low goal kicking percentage are all factors which hold them back.
The next three games:
The Rebels have a generous run into their bye week with the Drua in round 7 followed by the Highlanders in round 8, both of which are home games for the Melbournians.
If the Rebels can clinch these two back-to-back homes games, they can take the bye week to plan for the onslaught of tough games that follows it.
The slog starts off with an away clash against the Crusaders in round 10, a fixture which may pose as a banana skin game for the seven-time title holders.
If the Rebels tie up the loose ends, they are a team who can score big points against any side in the comp.
Western Force, table position 12th, power ranking 11th, win/loss 1-5
The Force have been the Australian side hardest hit by injuries prior to the season’s start and the effects of those blows are still being felt now heading into week seven.
The propping stocks have been the hardest hit with Angus Wagner and new signing Harry Hoopert both ruled out until at least mid-April.
Former All Blacks prop Atu Moli is yet to be sighted, despite being a marquee signing in the offseason.
Young gun Marley Pearce added insult to injury when he broke his nose in a high tackle on Jordie Barrett in round 1 and is only now looking to return off the bench in the front row.
The second row stocks have also been hammered by injuries with young captain Jeremy Williams and Wallaby Izack Rodda being plagued by a run of injuries.
The extensive injury list and plethora of in season injury cover signings from outside the extended squad indicates it’s a side with little cohesion, a factor many analysists consider to be crucial for success.
Next three games:
The Force head to Auckland to take on the Blues in round 7, which will be followed by their bye week.
Then they’ll welcome the Crusaders to Perth in round 9, followed by a trip to the deep south to take on the Highlanders at Forsyth Barr in round-10.
Both these games are winnable and could go a long way to reinvigorate the Force’s season, because the run of games that follows only get harder.
Super Rugby Power Rankings after six rounds
1. Hurricanes
2. ACT Brumbies
3. Queensland Reds
4. Chiefs
5. Blues
6. Crusaders
7. Fijian Drua
8. Highlanders
9. NSW Waratahs
10. Melbourne Rebels
11. Western Force
12. Moana Pasifika
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.