With my belief that luck plays a role in any competitive sport, including the AFL where 18 hungry club organisations compete with the same premiership goal, I take up the 2013 statement by the AFL legend and four-time premiership coach (1978, 1981-1982 and 1995) David Parkin.
“I don’t think I was a very good coach. Seriously, all bar the last premiership, they were given to me really, they were great players,” Parkin said.
Of course, Parkin was a very good leader with considerable playing experience, a professional educator ahead of his time, and a talented passionate footy insider who was able to deliver for Hawthorn and Carlton as the head coach.
However, given that many of the coaches who quickly won premierships from 1978 inherited good teams, Parkin’s emphasis upon being fortunate is indeed correct.
As the following table highlights when assessing the 25 premiership coaches since 1978, of the 12 coaches who won a premiership within two seasons of taking charge, six took over teams that had two top-four finishes in the previous three home-and-away seasons.
Of the 21 coaches who coached a flag within four years, 13 took over clubs that had finished in the top four at least once during the previous three seasons prior to the coach’s tenure, while 18 coaches took over a club that had played finals during the previous three years.
The number of finals teams increases from five to six in 1991 and to eight in 1994 as the number of AFL clubs increase.
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Coach
Club
Flag
First year
Position
Position
Position
David Parkin
Haw
1978
1977
1974 (3)
1975 (1)
1976 (2)
Alex Jesaulenko
Carl
1979
1978
1975 (2)
1976 (1)
1977 (6)
David Parkin
Carl
1981, 1982
1981
1978 (4)
1979 (1)
1980 (2)
Allan Jeans
Haw
1983, 1986, 1989
1981
1978 (2)
1979 (7)
1980 (8)
Alan Joyce
Haw
1988, 1991
1988
1985 (3)
1986 (1)
1987 (2)
Robert Walls
Carl
1987
1986
1983 (5)
1984 (3)
1985 (4)
Tony Jewell
Rich
1980
1979
1976 (7)
1977 (4)
1978 (7)
Kevin Sheedy
Ess
1984, 1985, 1993, 2000
1981
1978 (10)
1979 (5)
1980 (7)
Leigh Matthews
Coll
1990
1986
1983 (6)
1984 (4)
1985 (7)
Mick Malthouse
WC
1992, 1994
1990
1987 (8)
1988 (4)
1989 (11)
David Parkin
Carl
1995
1991
1988 (3)
1989 (8)
1990 (8)
Denis Pagan
NM
1996, 1999
1993
1990 (6)
1991 (8)
1992 (12)
Malcolm Blight
Ade
1997, 1998
1997
1994 (11)
1995 (11)
1996 (12)
Leigh Matthews
Bris
2001-2003
1999
1996 (3)
1997 (8)
1998 (16)
Mark Williams
PA
2004
1999
N/A
1997 (9)
1998 (10)
Paul Roos
Syd
2005
2002
1999 (8)
2000 (10)
2001 (7)
John Worsfold
WC
2006
2002
1999 (5)
2000 (13)
2001 (14)
Mark Thompson
Geel
2007, 2009
2000
1997 (2)
1998 (12)
1999 (11)
Alastair Clarkson
Haw
2008, 2013, 2014, 2015
2005
2003 (9)
2002 (10)
2004 (15)
Mick Malthouse
Coll
2010
2000
1997 (10)
1998 (14)
1999 (16)
Chris Scott
Geel
2011
2011
2008 (1)
2009 (2)
2010 (2)
John Longmire
Syd
2012
2011
2008 (6)
2009 (12)
2010 (5)
Luke Beveridge
WB
2016
2015
2012 (15)
2013 (15)
2014 (14)
Damien Hardwick
Rich
2017, 2019, 2020
2010
2007 (16)
2008 (9)
2009 (15)
Adam Simpson
WC
2018
2014
2011 (4)
2012 (5)
2013 (13)
Of the 25 premiership coaches since 1978, only seven of 25 (28 per cent) won a premiership with a team with no finals experience during the previous three years prior to the coach’s arrival.
While the importance of recent club success for a premiership coach does dissipate somewhat from 1990 in terms of taking over clubs with less top-four finishes during the previous three home-and-away seasons, only Malcolm Blight (Adelaide), Alastair Clarkson (Hawthorn), Mick Malthouse (Collingwood), Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs) and Damien Hardwick (Richmond) have been successful at clubs with no previous finals experience.
Given the reality that it is much harder for new coaches of a club with a recent poor record, it is simply amazing that Luke Beveridge coached the 2016 premiership team in his second year as coach after the Western Bulldogs finished 15th, 15th and 14th from 2012 to 2014.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The same is true with Malcolm Blight who had immediate success with Adelaide in 1997 and 1998 after that club finished 11, 11 and 12 from 1994 to 1996, although Blight had previous coaching experience with North Melbourne (1981) and Geelong (1989-1994) with the latter losing three grand finals (1989, 1992 and 1994).
While Mick Malthouse had already coached premiership teams at West Coast (1992 and 1994) after earlier coaching Footscray (1984 to 1989), his Collingwood premiership (2010) occurred in his 11th season, albeit the latter became a force under his leadership making the grand final in 2002 and 2003.
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Damien Hardwick also took eight seasons to win his first premiership with Richmond in 2017 before further success in 2019 and 2020.
Given how long it took Hardwick to succeed, four seasons before making the finals and eight years before winning its first finals match (and premiership) in 2017, it is quite unrealistic to criticise new coaches for not delivering success within a few years when they take over clubs with recent poor records.
(Photo by Graham Denholm/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Fans should give new coaches reasonable time to succeed rather than expect immediate short-term success as the latter is hardly likely for most clubs.
As an Essendon supporter, I also see good potential in a young Bombers side but recognise that the new coach Ben Rutten takes over a struggling club that finished 11th, eighth and 13th from 2018 to 2020.
Is three years enough? I doubt it.
Calls for Carlton’s coach David Teague to resign or be replaced ignore the reality he has only coached since 2019 after that club finished 14th, 16th and 18th from 2016 to 2018.
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While Carlton and Essendon are famous Melbourne clubs with a large supporter base who expect regular success as both have 16 premiership wins, they are just two of 18 competitive clubs who must address salary caps and have some luck with the selection of players from the AFL draft and trade system.
The odds are indeed harder for new coaches in struggling clubs to overcome when compared to those who take the reins of clubs with recent finals experience, albeit there will be the occasional exception as experienced by Luke Beveridge and the Western Bulldogs in 2016.