Opinion
The countdown to Round 1, 2023 has officially begun – so throughout January, I’ll be looking at all 18 AFL clubs and doing my best to put together an optimum team for the new year.
I’ll take injuries and suspensions into account, but this won’t be a predicted team for Round 1 – think of it more as a guide to what your team’s best 23 (the 22 starting players plus the new unrestricted substitute) could look like as the year unfolds.
So far this week, I’ve pored over the Adelaide Crows and the Brisbane Lions; today, it’s Carlton’s turn.
>> Goalsneaks galore, but who holds the fort down back for the Crows this year?
>> More new guns than they know what to do with, how do the Lions fit everyone in?
The Blues did a lot right in Michael Voss’ first year in charge: a power-packed midfield was assembled that regularly blew quality sides apart, they added a new defensive steel that saw them rank in the bottom six for points against, and Charlie Curnow’s return to spearhead a damaging forward line saw him claim a shock Coleman Medal.
But for a series of injuries to key players, particularly in said midfield – George Hewett and Matthew Kennedy missed their disastrous home stretch – the Blues would have broken their now decade-long finals drought, and done so as a team with all the attributes of a team capable of challenging for the flag.
Injuries are a lottery in many ways, but Carlton fans will already be dreading a repeat with Sam Walsh undergoing back surgery to start the new year and already look unlikely for the first month of the season. Certainly getting Walsh and Hewett right when the whips are cracking will be crucial, because their absence for their heartbreaking Round 23 loss to Collingwood was a game-changer.
The Blues will be many punters’ tip to be the side from outside the eight last year that breaks in in 2023: but there are still a few things Voss and co. need to work out before they can be spoken of as a bona fide premiership contender.
Considering how leaky they were under David Teague, Voss did a remarkable job adding a new defensive stiffness to the Blues in 2022. They finished mid-table for average inside 50s conceded, but sixth for total scores against in the home-and-away season – a sizeable uptick from 2021, when they were fifth-worst and second-worst in those states respectively.
The fulcrum at the centre of it all is Jacob Weitering, but the Blues proved during his four-game absence with a shoulder injury mid-season that he isn’t the be all and end all down there. The Blues went 2-2 in that stretch, but of those losses, they kept Richmond to 11 goals from 76 inside 50s and just nine marks inside there, while St Kilda were restricted to eight marks inside 50 and it was more their opponents’ uncharacteristic accuracy that cruelled them there.
The Blues did give up more contested marks than anyone bar the Western Bulldogs last year, but were able to avoid giving up all that many when the ball was inside their defensive 50. I’d say they did an exceptional job with a very limited supply of key talls.
Lewis Young had a quietly exceptional first season at Ikon Park, and by the end of the year there was no dispute about him being the second banana down in defence behind Weitering. An exceptional reader of the ball in the air, he often kick-starts the Blues’ surges from half-back and into attack, with Adam Saad and Nic Newman the next links in the chain. With Saad nothing short of outstanding this season and Newman an accomplished small defender with his own offensive capabilities as well, it’s hard to see either of them losing their places in this team anytime soon.
More interesting is the role of Sam Docherty. His Hail Mary move into the midfield when the first-choice guys were falling like Tesla’s stock price ended up proving a shrewd one, with the former co-captain getting his hands dirty for six clearances in each of the final two rounds – behind only Cripps among Blues.
I’d be surprised if that move became permanent, though, simply because of the volume of pure mids clamouring for spots in the starting group. He played a lot on the wing in 2021 under Teague, which might be an option if Voss wants to keep him around the ball; but a return to his 2022 position as a cool head in defence is probably most likely.
I can’t see Zac Williams playing anywhere other than defence: he didn’t attend a single centre bounce last year after being largely disappointing in the midfield role he was recruited for in 2021. But equally, the fact Voss rated him enough to bring him back sight unseen from a long-term injury for their do-or-die Round 23 match last year makes me think, despite having plenty of other options in similar roles in their backline group, Williams will be squeezed in one way or another.
As for the third tall, Mitch McGovern‘s capabilities as an intercept marker, which he showed off very nicely indeed in the final five rounds of the season, give him the nod for mine over Caleb Marchbank and Lachie Plowman, who are more lockdown-oriented.
McGovern is an interesting one: he took 11 and 10 marks respectively in Rounds 20 and 21, showcasing his aerial prowess; but then became more of a genuine ground-ball rebounding defender in the final two weeks of the season.
He’s a good mid-size to play either role, and the Blues were particularly bullish about him to start the year before injury struck. If Weitering and Young have their hands full with opposition talls, it will be handy to have a third intercepting option at hand to do things like this.
I wrote glowingly midway through last year that the Blues’ midfield was powerful enough to challenge Melbourne’s for supremacy as the best in the league.
That didn’t work out too well for either party, but when they’re on, the Blues are a force to be reckoned with out of the centre. Their performance against a very good Fremantle at Docklands, smashing them 44-30 in clearances to pave the way for a 64-40 inside 50 domination, was spectacular to behold.
The issue for the Blues has been making that domination a regular thing: they ranked ninth in 2022 for average clearances per game, even though they won the clearance count 16 times out of 22. Given they finished second in the comp behind the Demons for average contested possessions, perhaps it’s a balance issue, exacerbated by their injury woes, that stopped the Blues translating winning the hard ball into escaping from stoppages.
Equally, it could be the ruck issue: Marc Pittonet‘s knee injury that wiped out the majority of his season put a lot of responsibility on Tom De Koning‘s shoulders, and it was no surprise to see the Blues mostly struggle to have the same clearance dominance with him in the side as opposed to Pittonet.
Bizarrely, the Blues’ highest clearance counts of the season came in the final two rounds: 47-33 against the Magpies, and 47-44 on the Demons. Pittonet was back, but it wasn’t like controlling it out of the centre was an instant victory-ensurer for them.
Playing them both didn’t work, and Jack Silvagni is an energetic if undersized backup; De Koning has a bright future, but if the Blues are serious about a premiership run in 2023 then Pittonet’s presence is a must.
Most other teams would have the loss of Sam Walsh for around the first month of the season be a hammer blow, but the Blues have depth to cover. Reigning Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps is good enough to fill the void on his own, just like he did against the Pies with Walsh a late scratching.
A monster in close, fully fit and becoming more damaging offensively, Cripps works exceptionally well with Pittonet, which is another mark in the big man’s favour.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
I’d also be giving Adam Cerra first look at the centre bounces, too: it’s notable the games in 2022 the Blues tried him in other roles, most obviously on a wing against St Kilda, it didn’t work for either club or player. The game-turner against the Magpies and the firestarter for their remarkable third quarter in that game, Cerra might just be on the verge of a breakout season.
As for backup, George Hewett and Matt Kennedy are exceptional rotation options. Hewett’s loss was a big reason the Blues’ clearance numbers deteriorated later in the season, as despite missing seven games with back problems only Cripps beat him in that stat at the club. He’s a lock to be in the guts at least until Walsh is out, and it’s not inconceivable that even after he returns Voss elects to use Walsh in an outside role, as he did at times during the middle rounds of 2022.
Kennedy has earned his spot as a fully fledged inside midfielder in the last two years, but I can’t help but wondering if he could be used as a floating winger. I remember a game against West Coast in 2020 when he honestly marked like Wayne Carey: given the abundance of inside players the Blues have at their disposal, players like Kennedy with other traits may be more useful for the team addressing areas they lack in.
Speaking of wingers, Blake Acres was recruited for one thing and one thing alone: run that offensive wing just like he did at Fremantle. The best pure winger of 2022, the former Docker runs all day, is good overhead, consistently gets involved in link play from defensive 50 – I lost count of how many times Luke Ryan or Hayden Young found him as a wide bail-out option when rebounding – and he kicks goals.
He’s a sizeable upgrade on the smaller Lochie O’Brien – lock him on that wing and throw away the key.
As for the other wing, Voss experimented with Matthew Cottrell at times as well as O’Brien in 2022, as well as, even less successfully, the now-departed Will Setterfield; but I’d love to see Zac Fisher lock it down in 2023. One area the Blues can get exposed in at times is genuine line-breaking pace in midfield: Walsh is quick, but Hewett, Kennedy and Cripps are more bulls than stallions.
Fisher is quicker by far, and by starting on a wing and pushing in to become part of the roaming midfield instead of holding his space – in the vein of a Seb Ross at St Kilda – he could be a different kind of weapon to attack teams with. A scimitar in a team full of blunt force instruments.
He was used in bursts on the ball last year, and it’s no surprise that the game he had his biggest midfield role in was that game against the Dockers. Fisher only had three clearances that day, but he did get the ball 29 times and finish with five inside 50s.
Expect to see plenty of Oliver Hollands this year, too: in years to come, that wing role will be his. With Acres’ arrival, and the Blues rarely using two wingers wide of the contest in 2022 – though that could be more personnel than a style choice – it’s hard to fit him in to a first-choice 22 – but given his aerobic capacity, using him as the designated substitute to ease him into AFL life could be the way the Blues go.
For the next decade, the Blues will build their forward line around Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.
It’s a perfect pairing – one a colossus who clunks pack marks and seldom fails to at least bring the ball to ground; the other a fearsomely athletic hit-up target who is too quick for the key defenders and too strong for the smalls.
The problem is what happens at their feet. Curnow and McKay combined for 109 goals last season, with McKay even missing three games; Cripps was next-best at the Blues with 20 majors, and no one who played more than 12 games so much as averaged a goal per outing.
That’s why, despite having two of the game’s most fearsome pillars, the Blues finished eighth for total points. It’s why, in their oh so crucial loss to Adelaide in Round 20, the Crows restricting Curnow and McKay to just three goals and 15 touches between them left them without a reliable avenue to goal.
Corey Durdin and Matthew Owies are there for their pressure rather than to hit the scoreboard, which is all well and good: but to truly take the next step, the Blues need a bona fide crumber at ground level who can make the most of ground-ball opportunities, giving the Blues another option from ‘tackle hard, force a ball up, get numbers around the ball and see what happens’.
That’s where Jesse Motlop comes in: his two goals in the third quarter of their final-round clash with Collingwood was exactly what the Blues had been missing for most of the year. He had some other exceptional moments during the year, but those two, for obvious reasons, stand out.
That role is also where Jack Martin might need to reinvent himself. Injuries have just about put paid to any chance he has of becoming the fully fledged super-midfielder he was touted as when Gold Coast picked him up in the 2015 mini-draft: but he’s quick, nimble, dangerous at his best and honestly a better footballer than the 10-possession, one goal a game, injured every other week player he was in 2022.
Perhaps a move closer to goal, where he can nip at the heels of Curnow and McKay and seldom leave the attacking 50, is how to get the best out of his prodigious talent.
Backs: Mitch McGovern, Jacob Weitering, Adam Saad
Half-backs: Nic Newman, Lewis Young, Sam Docherty
Centres: Blake Acres, Patrick Cripps (c), Zac Fisher
Followers: Marc Pittonet, Sam Walsh*, Adam Cerra
Half-forwards: Jack Martin, Charlie Curnow, Jesse Motlop
Forwards: Corey Durdin, Harry McKay, Matthew Owies
Interchange: George Hewett, Matthew Kennedy, Jack Silvagni, Zac Williams
Substitute: Oliver Hollands
Emergencies: Matthew Cottrell, Tom De Koning, Lachie Plowman
* will miss start of season
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