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Super Rugby: The super stats Round 3 wrap, Round 4 preview
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Rugby4Cast
Roar Rookie
6th March, 2019
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2439 Reads

We had a pretty poor weekend predictions wise, but it was bound to happen after we called the weekend to be ‘pretty one sided.’ There were some upsets and big wins so let’s break it down and see what happened.

Round 3 Debrief

Firstly let’s have a look at how our Algorithm’s predicted results stacked up against reality.

The Hurricanes bounced back and blew away the Brumbies after the Brumbies had a great Round 2. The Rebels held on against the men from the south, retaining their unbeaten run. The Sharks suffered their first defeat of the season and the Bulls harked back to the Bulls of old, defeating the Lions away from home.

Super Rugby: Predicted vs actual (Round 3)
Season accuracy: 13 from 21 (62%) Season margin error: 15.48
Weekend accuracy: 3 from 7 (43%) Weekend margin error: 17.71
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin error
Hurricanes 43 24 Yes 21
Brumbies 13 15
Rebels 24 21 No 14
Highlanders 19 30
Sharks 11 23 No 10
Stormers 16 18
Chiefs 15 38 No 38
Sunwolves 30 15
Reds 12 22 Yes 5
Crusaders 22 37
Jaguares 23 29 Yes 3
Blues 19 22
Lions 12 35 No 33
Bulls 30 20

Hurricanes v Brumbies
How can you predict this competition this year? The Brumbies won 54-17 last week and then a week later lose 43-13 to the ‘Canes in Palmerston North. Beauden Barrett was back, but it was local boy Ngani Laumape who was the star of the show dotting down for 3 tries.

Rebels v Highlanders
Who remembers when the Rebels nearly got the Axe! Thankfully they didn’t, as they are showing their worth, winning against the Highlanders 24-19. The men from Melbourne are now two and zero, and the only team along with the Crusaders undefeated.

Chiefs v Sunwolves
We always want to see the underdogs win games, but you probably wouldn’t have picked them to beat 2013 Super Rugby champions at home. The Sunwolves have been very close so far this season, only losing out against the Waratahs by a point. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are still waiting for their first win.

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Reds v Crusaders
Without being rude, the Reds were always going to struggle against the Crusader juggernaut. There are few teams who wouldn’t. The Crusaders are now on an 18 match win streak and don’t look like slowing down. There was only three points in it at halftime, but the Crusaders were too strong in the second half winning 22-12.

Lions v Bulls
The Bulls are the team of old after beating the Lions in Johannesburg 30-12. At no stage did the Lions look like they were going to win and it’s the first time since 2012 the Bulls have won at Ellis Park.

Sharks v Stormers
No doubt the Stormers squad got a real talking to after their abysmal Round 1 performance. Well, it’s certainly worked with them winning Round 2 and 3. The Sharks, however, are still top of the South African conference with 11 points and 2nd in the overall table to the Crusaders.

Jaguares v Blues
Leaps and strides is all I can say about the Jaguares winning at home 23-19. They’re living up to their expectation and we for one hope they continue their run. They see themselves sitting 3rd on 9 points only behind the Bulls (also on nine points) due to points difference.

Round 4 Matches and Predictions

Here are the Algorithms predictions for the fourth round of Super Rugby.

The Algorithm’s Predictions: Super Rugby Round 4
Season accuracy: 13 from 21 (62%) Season margin error: 15.48
Teams Predicted Score Chance of winning Prediction
Hurricanes 35 75.3% Hurricanes to win by 11
Highlanders 24 23.7%
Rebels 23 38.6% Brumbies to win by 5
Brumbies 28 59.9%
Crusaders 31 79.2% Crusaders to win by 14
Chiefs 17 18.5%
Blues 29 76.7% Blues to win by 14
Sunwolves 15 22.5%
Waratahs 32 78.7% Waratahs to win by 15
Reds 17 20.8%
Lions 45 77.8% Lions to win by 13
Jaguares 32 21.4%
Bulls 28 64.1% Bulls to win by 3
Sharks 25 33.8%
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Hurricanes vs Highlanders
The Hurricanes have another home game, this time back in Wellington, and hoping to build on a strong performance in Round 3. The Highlanders, however, are hoping to bounce back after their first loss. Both teams are on nine points with two wins and a loss.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Hurricanes 17 8 9 0 422 366 47% 24.8
Highlanders 17 9 8 0 366 422 53% 21.5
Date Home Score Away Score
6/1/2018 Highlanders 30 14 Hurricanes
3/24/2018 Hurricanes 29 12 Highlanders
3/18/2017 Hurricanes 41 15 Highlanders
5/27/2016 Hurricanes 27 20 Highlanders
3/5/2016 Highlanders 17 16 Hurricanes
7/4/2015 Hurricanes 14 21 Highlanders
6/5/2015 Hurricanes 56 20 Highlanders
3/20/2015 Highlanders 13 20 Hurricanes
5/16/2014 Hurricanes 16 18 Highlanders
3/21/2014 Highlanders 35 31 Hurricanes
7/6/2013 Hurricanes 44 49 Highlanders
3/15/2013 Highlanders 19 23 Hurricanes
5/12/2012 Highlanders 20 26 Hurricanes
3/17/2012 Hurricanes 17 19 Highlanders
5/13/2011 Highlanders 13 6 Hurricanes
2/18/2011 Hurricanes 9 14 Highlanders
4/24/2010 Highlanders 31 33 Hurricanes

The algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by 11. With six of the last seven games being won by the home team, we hope this one goes to form – for the numbers sake.

Rebels vs Brumbies
The Rebels will be excited to have a strong test against the Brumbies and will be looking to keep their unbeaten record intact. The Brumbies will be looking for a return to their Round 1 form, rather than Round 2, and put down a statement that they are a force to be reckoned with.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Rebels 16 7 9 0 305 418 44% 19.1
Brumbies 16 9 7 0 418 305 56% 26.1
Date Home Score Away Score
2/15/2019 Brumbies 27 34 Rebels
5/12/2018 Brumbies 24 27 Rebels
3/9/2018 Rebels 33 10 Brumbies
6/3/2017 Brumbies 32 3 Rebels
4/15/2017 Rebels 19 17 Brumbies
5/13/2016 Rebels 22 30 Brumbies
4/18/2015 Brumbies 8 13 Rebels
2/28/2015 Rebels 15 20 Brumbies
5/31/2014 Brumbies 37 10 Rebels
3/28/2014 Rebels 32 24 Brumbies
6/7/2013 Brumbies 39 17 Rebels
2/22/2013 Rebels 13 30 Brumbies
6/1/2012 Rebels 19 27 Brumbies
4/14/2012 Brumbies 37 6 Rebels
6/10/2011 Brumbies 32 17 Rebels
2/25/2011 Rebels 25 24 Brumbies
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The algorithm has the Brumbies to win by six points at home. With the Rebels taking the three last games (home and away). the Brumbies will feel they are due a win.

Crusaders vs Chiefs
Who can stop the Crusaders on their record streak? Will the Chiefs get their first win of the season? What a win it would be! We’ve have had a look at the last ten encounters between these two teams and interestingly both are on five wins apiece.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Crusaders 10 5 5 0 224 231 50% 22.4
Chiefs 10 5 5 0 231 224 50% 23.1
Date Home Score Away Score
6/2/2018 Chiefs 20 34 Crusaders
2/24/2018 Crusaders 45 23 Chiefs
7/29/2017 Crusaders 27 13 Chiefs
5/19/2017 Chiefs 24 31 Crusaders
7/1/2016 Chiefs 23 13 Crusaders
2/27/2016 Crusaders 21 27 Chiefs
4/17/2015 Crusaders 9 26 Chiefs
2/28/2015 Chiefs 40 16 Crusaders
4/19/2014 Chiefs 17 18 Crusaders
2/21/2014 Crusaders 10 18 Chiefs

However, on home soil the algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 13 and break the deadlock. I’ll even go out on a whim and say it could be more the way they are playing. (Based on last week’s predictions this now means a thumping Chiefs win.)

Blues vs Sunwolves
This could be the game of the round. Although it’s not really a make or break game for the Auckland outfit, it is a game when they saw the fixture calendar that they would have targeted to win.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Blues 2 1 1 0 45 58 50% 22.5
Sunwolves 2 1 1 0 58 45 50% 29
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Date Home Score Away Score
4/14/2018 Sunwolves 10 24 Blues
7/15/2017 Sunwolves 48 21 Blues

The Sunwolves have been strong, and could have had more than their one win. Although it is still early doors, the Blues have been looking like the same team in previous seasons, aside from their strong Round 1 performance.

The algorithm has the Blues to win by 15 which is exactly what the Blues fans will want to hear. However with a win apiece in their history, the Sunwolves ‘in form’ and the Blues with zero wins … well, it could easily go to the Sunwolves.

Waratahs vs Reds
The Waratahs are coming off a bye week so will be rested and raring to go. They are sitting on one win and one loss, with only one point in both of their matches, so will be hoping for a more confident victory this time around. The Reds will look to pick up their first win of the season in this match, with losses to NZ sides Highlanders and Crusaders in their first matches.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Waratahs 10 9 1 0 295 138 90% 29.5
Reds 10 1 9 0 138 295 10% 13.8
Date Home Score Away Score
6/2/2018 Reds 41 52 Waratahs
4/14/2018 Waratahs 37 16 Reds
4/29/2017 Reds 26 29 Waratahs
3/27/2016 Reds 13 15 Waratahs
2/27/2016 Waratahs 30 10 Reds
6/13/2015 Waratahs 31 5 Reds
3/7/2015 Reds 5 23 Waratahs
7/12/2014 Reds 3 34 Waratahs
3/1/2014 Waratahs 32 5 Reds
7/13/2013 Waratahs 12 14 Reds

The algorithm has the ‘Tahs to win by 15 and judging by the last ten results between these two teams, the computer is bang on with the last Reds win coming in 2013.

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Lions vs Jaguares
Who would have thought that the Lions (2018 finalists) would be last in the South African conference? The Lions are at home against an in-form Jaguares outfit and will be looking to draw the strength of the previous seasons to grab that second win of the season and get back on track.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Lions 8 5 3 0 269 230 63% 33.625
Jaguares 8 3 5 0 230 269 38% 28.75
Date Home Score Away Score
2/16/2019 Jaguares 16 25 Lions
7/21/2018 Lions 40 23 Jaguares
3/24/2018 Jaguares 49 35 Lions
2/24/2018 Lions 47 27 Jaguares
4/21/2017 Lions 24 21 Jaguares
3/11/2017 Jaguares 36 24 Lions
7/16/2016 Jaguares 34 22 Lions
5/21/2016 Lions 52 24 Jaguares

The algorithm has the Lions to win by 14 at home this time, so perhaps they can get over their recent blips and get back to form. Only time will tell.

Bulls vs Sharks
Big game! A ‘top of the South African conference clash’ (it rolls right off the tongue doesn’t it?). 1st vs 2nd. In such a tight match we are going to let The algorithm do the talking – and it has the Bulls to win by just two points! A game that really could go either way.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Bulls 10 8 1 1 262 206 80% 26.2
Sharks 10 1 8 1 206 262 10% 20.6
Date Home Score Away Score
5/12/2018 Bulls 39 33 Sharks
4/14/2018 Sharks 10 40 Bulls
6/30/2017 Sharks 17 30 Bulls
3/18/2016 Bulls 16 16 Sharks
4/18/2015 Sharks 10 17 Bulls
2/28/2015 Bulls 43 35 Sharks
3/22/2014 Bulls 23 19 Sharks
2/15/2014 Sharks 31 16 Bulls
7/6/2013 Bulls 20 19 Sharks
5/25/2013 Sharks 16 18 Bulls
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We have also looked at previous results between these two sides which is heavily stacked in the Bulls favour.

What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts. Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast.com to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and much else besides.

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Rugby4Cast
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Rugby4Cast aims to provide a stats-based approach to rugby previews and look closely at the histories, rankings and form heading into matches.

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