You and I are very much on the same page; both with the only “pencil em in”/secure bets and AUS prospects.

Larkin (200bk) & Seebohm (100bk) both deserve favouritism at this point but the competition in either event is such that neither qualify as sure things. Likewise, the presence of Sjostrom for the Campbells in 100fs. However, all look secure medal bets.

A Campbell could win 50fs but its more open than the 100 so it could well be that only one collects any medal in that event. Larkin could win 100bk but probably more secure bet would be medal. Similar scenario for Seebohm in 200bk.

Wilson clearly in medal picture in W100bk. McEvoy very much in the medal mix in M100fs but this is likely to be harder in Rio so not necessarily a secure bet. Should she replicate Kazan form in Rio, Ashwood may be in medal picture for 400/800 but 400 esp likely to require faster times for minors.

M4X200 probably flattered by their bronze; a lot of Euro teams especially are likely to have their act together in Rio so I rate them an outside chance at best. The return of Elmslie and/or Palmer would strengthen W4X200 and probably see them well in medal contention but some of the Rio outfit have major question marks.

As long as AUS lacks a competent 100flyer, medals in M4XMED will be precarious bet. The clear dominance of either Campbell on anchor means, at worst, a minor medal can be rescued in W4XMED but the instability of BRS particularly & fly make anything more than a place/medal bet a rather brave proposition.

Magnussen back to fitness = M4X100 a medal chance. Magnussen absent – don’t bother. Hopefully the lessons of Kazan will fully percolate through Horton’s brain & that of this coach but a massive rise in professionalism will be required for him to be seen as a realistic medal shot in either 400 or 1500.

I agree that 6 golds are possible but my realistic “top side of expectations” would be 4 with 1-3 probably more likely. Total medals 10-12 with 6-8 the lower end of expectations.

Hard to know at this point whether the “non-tourist” McKeon will develop into a legitimately world class 100 flyer or not. Her 4th in individual race in Kazan cannot really be taken as a guarantee of a finals berth in Rio as, apart from Sjostrom’s WR, the minor medals were slow times. You’ll probably need sub57 to be sure of finals next year. Not many alternatives around. Coutts returning to her peak is far from a certainty & Groves has yet to prove she can replicate domestic times when it counts in international waters.

McKeown started off well in Kazan with a sub 1.07PB in 100BRS then her swims got steadily worse as the meet progressed …. and she seemed to get more tense. Tonks, for all her admirable tenacity, is not going to get any better than she is and that is short of world class. Georgia Bohl & Jessica Hansen are two youngers swimmers currently going 1.07mid-low at the moment; whether they can make sufficient progress before Trials remains to be seen.

Very much agree that both Larkin & Seebohm can be seen as favourites in the events you’ve stated; however they’re not quite as “secure” a bet as the W4X100. Franklin faces an uphill battle in the 100 with Seebohm, Wilson, Nielsen & Hosszu in her path but I agree the 200BK is her strongest event.

Either C1 (Cate) or C2 (Bronte) could win the 100free and both have to be seen as very strong medal bets but Sjostrom is still very much a factor. The 50 is more open & will probably be much faster in Rio; both should be around the medals but you also have Sjostrom, Kromowidjojo & potentially Halsall (if she returns to 2014 form) ‘complicating things”.

Tend to discount M4X100; its competitiveness and even it’s qualification for Rio (due to Kazan debacle) is wholly contingent on Magnussen’s return to full fitness & form which is far from certain. Whilst the front end of M4XMED performed admirably, their “medalling” was essentially due to an out of this world anchor leg from McEvoy which saw him overtake 2-3 teams. Unless they can uncover a half-way competitive 100flyer by Rio, this relay will struggle to collect anything. D’Orsogna & Hadler are serial non-performers, Morgan ( a 200 man) swam heats & was faster than Hadler but that’s probably not going to be enough.

Roberts reportedly has back issues. He swam at 2014 Trials & didn’t make the team; not sighted in 2015. Not sure he’s any answer given his international track record. His record in individual events & 4×100 was NOT good. Out in semis 2011 Worlds & cut from finals line-up 4×100; poor relay swim in London & out in semis individual, mediocre relay 2013 Worlds. Probably fair to say his sub48 at 2014 was an “outlier”/anomaly largely due to surfing Magnussen’s wake.

Chalmers is interesting. Given his AFL background, it will be interesting which way he may go. Those relay splits are promising but need to be seen as just that; relay splits off flying start which equate to 48mid off blocks. He probably should’ve been given Magnussen’s individual swims but D’Orosgna finished ahead of him at Trials. Hopefully, D’Orsogna will be one who’s “papers are marked” after Kazan given his serial run of inadequate performances in international competition.

Horton paid the price for being dozy in heats in the 400; just survived heats in the non-Olympic 800 & picked up bronze in the final …… then was unable to go with the pace in 1500 heats. He HAS had previous international experience (Youth Olympics, last year’s “ToyTown Games” & Pan Pacs) but this was his first “major”. Hopefully the lessons of Kazan WILL be fully digested by both he and his coach. You can get away with coasting in heats at Nationals; do it in “the big time” and you’re out on your rear end.

M4X100 will only be competitive IF Magnussen is able to return to full fitness & form which is no certainty. As a result of the heats debacle in Kazan, they failed to direct qualify this relay for Rio & to do so, they will now have to post one of the 4 fastest time of nations who have not already qualified between now & end of QF period. IF Magnussen fails to make a return; their chances of qualification shrink enormously as once you go past McEvoy, Abood & Chalmers there’s no one else either quick enough or sufficiently reliable in intl competition.

Small fact check; the worst AUS swim performance in recent times was not 1972 (Munich , which was successful) but 1976 (Montreal) where the only medal was Steve Holland’s bronze in M1500.

Whilst there were many dysfunctional issues in the London team; result’s wise it was far a less a disaster than a “return to normal programming” after Sydney/post Sydney years of plenty. The average medal hauls for LA, Barcelona & Atlanta were 10-12 medals with only one gold at both LA & Barcelona & two in Atlanta; and in each case there was a wait until the final day of swimming competition for these golds to eventuate.

Al, Brazil has produced some useful swimmers over the past decade including some Olympic medallists & champions; regrettably some of these may be on the decline by Rio. In Kazan, they picked up 2 medals in Olympic events.

GBR went to school somewhat on the AUS model over the past decade & has been producing some quality swimmers, particularly on the male side & picked up 6 medals (incl 3 gold) in Olympic events in Kazan. Not the depth or “spread” of talent of USA or AUS but their best WILL be “around the money”

Are the seven golds from Kazan likely to be replicated in Rio ?? Doubtful. There is probably only one (W4XMED) where they are a clear level above the competition & only poor form next year/illness-injuries decimating squad or “mucking things up” is likely to deprive them. Seebohm, Campbell MkII & Larkin COULD all win individual golds & may well go in as favourites in their events (if in good form/health next year) but can in no way be seen as sure things. You could probably put them down as likely medallists; “colour to be determined”.

Most of the other Kazan medals look reasonably strong chances for Rio; the only possible exceptions may be Ashwood (W400); M4X200 & both 4XMED relays (all having major weaknesses/weak legs).

What WILL be interesting is whether Jaco Verhaeren will “call time” on some of the “serial tourists” who, as per their international form-lines, failed to swim anywhere near their Trials times in Kazan. These swimmers are on their 4th/5th year on the team with Olympics & multiple World Championships on their passports but “blank CVs”. Maybe the AUS selection process of Trials only is NOT best serving its purpose ?

As per usual, European countries like FRA, NED, ITA, SWE & DEN produce a champion or two & sometimes some depth in specific events. JAP looks on the improve with regards to both men’s & women’s teams.

Concur 100%. I really don’t think TJVG can win a GT unless perhaps a Vuelta against a sub-standard field. What he HAS proven is that he can at least ride the full 3 weeks and manage a top 5 and maybe even a podium. WT points ARE important for a team’s survival and these kind of finishes bring in significant points hauls.

For better or worse, Porte has not to date been able demonstrate THAT level of performance. Granted many of his GT rides have been as a super-domestique but when given the chance, he’s yet to “measure up”. Can he climb with the main contenders TO THE FINISH on a daily basis ? Yes, he won an AUS National TT title but is he really a top bracket TTer on both lumpy and flat courses ? Is his TTing even on a par with the main GT contenders ? Whilst he can most certainly win 1 week tours, as yet there are no firm affirmative answers to the above questions which do define who are the “real deal” in GTs.

Whilst I understand his desire to get out from UK Postal; OGE would be smart not to go there. Richie is unproven as a GT contender and whilst he can win the 1 week races they already have riders on their books who can bring in similar results. He’s probably wanting good $$$ and OGE cannot offer the same scale as the likes of BMC and I’m not sure he’d deliver the “bang for bucks” to warrant it. They have a couple of young AUS climbers joining in 2016 (Power & Haig). Better to develop them and potentially keep the Yates twins for as long as possible ….. and look for incremental development re GT GC rather than look for instant fixes.

Maybe WT rules need to be altered at least for GTs and tour organisers perhaps given some right of veto where those who have been zero contributors do not receive an invite or are not obligated to enter. It used to be the case with some Spanish/Italian teams with le Tour & similarly with French teams with the Giro or Vuelta.

Can you provide me with any positive rationale for Orica GreenEdge’s continued involvement in this year’s race barring, perhaps, allowing Adam Yates a little more GT experience ?

Should the tour director have the power to remove teams from the race for matters other than infractions of the rules; ie doping ? Perhaps they should have the power at each rest day of looking at what teams are just “making up the numbers” and having absolutely zero impact on the race ? I’m not just referring to stage or overall standings but also involvement in breaks or any sort of animating the race.

Porte to OGE ? Not sure, he’s the value for $$ they’d be after as he’s unproven as a GT contender and whilst he can win/place high in 3 week races they already have riders who fit that bill. I’m not sure that OGE has the budget to match the offers he may field from the likes of BMC and I’m not certain he’d accept the pay reduction.

OGE has 3 AUS youngsters signed for 2016 of which 2 (Haig and Power) are climbers. They would do best developing them and hopefully retaining the Yates’ twins for as long as possible. I don’t think Dennis’ climbing ability is likely to be of sufficient standard to be a GT contender however he does have the potential to be one of the elite TTers. He seems at home at BMC but how the future plays out, both $$wise and team chemistry, if Porte lands there remains open to speculation. Dennis was part of the AUS track enduro program but not sure what the harmony was like with others who are currently at OGE. His better half (Mel Hoskins) rides for Orica-AIS so who knows ?

With the TTT out of the way, and little likelihood of viable opportunities OR recuperating to the extent of being able to take advantage of them; I can see little purpose in Matthews remaining in the race. Better to give him a break for proper rest and recuperation as there ARE still races remaining on the calendar where he can bring in significant results.

I do completely concur that the placement of a TTT this far into a GT renders it more likely than not to be an unfair contest. I like the discipline, and as a test of a team’s cohesion believe it should be part of a GT but I feel the Giro & Vuelta have it right by making it the opening stage ….. with squads equal in manpower.

I’d beg differ with your picking Gerrans for the stage ending on the Mur De Huy (traditional finish of Fleche Wallone). Gerrans has openly stated that this finish doesn’t suit him and in the past 2-3 seasons has chosen to skip Fleche to given himself a weeks break between the two Ardennes races he targets (Amstel & LBL).

The Orica rider most likely to be given protected status for this stage is Albasini who has a history of high finishes at Fleche including 2nd in 2012 & 3rd this year.

They’ve made the quarter finals at the last two Women’s World Cups (2007 & 2011) but they were 16 team competitions and this is their first win in the knock-out stage. JAP or NED will be their QF opponents, both tough but both sides they are capable of beating if they’ve got it all together.

Like both Yates twins, Chaves is a very promising climbing talent but is still someway short of GT GC contender status. Common issues remain:

– their capacity to last the 3 week distance
– TT ability. Both Yates have shown some positive TT signs so far this years albeit over short distances and involving a climb. Long flat TT’s still look an issue.
– capacity to “hold position” in the GT peleton once “the hammer is dropped” especially in echelon conditions.

OGE has openly stated they are NOT looking at GC considerations for Chaves at the Giro but rather targeting specific stages.

Re the opening TTT; it looks like it will be a close run contest between the “usual faces” (EQS, OGE, BMC, SKY). This is not OGE’s “optimum” TTT lineup with Tuft ruled out and the likes of Meyer & Impey absent but there certainly is a strong engine room of Lancaster, Durbo, Hepburn & Bewley …. and the likes of Matthews, Clarke & Weening aren’t likely to be liabilities. The only potential strugglers would be Chaves & maybe a less than fully fit/healthy Gerrans.

Whilst Ewan MAY have some greater “staying power” going uphill than Chav or Robbie; that doesn’t necessarily indicate that he’s necessarily going to be competive in classics possessing key climbs near the finish. Ewan himself commented after last year’s Tour de L’Avenir that whilst he’d been competitive in hills at “age level”; he was being “shelled” very early in that race (looked upon as an U/23 Tour de France. Whilst it would be nice if he CAN develop into someone who can mix it with the big boys, on his evidence from last season he certainly has to mature physically as well as gain the tactical nous. Maybe he can pick up a result or two in non WT races during the year but it wouldn’t surprise if the “learning curve” includes a few HD (failed to make time cuts).

He actually had a stage win in both the 2014 and 2013 Tours de Suisse which are counted as WT wins. His best GC finishes in one week tours during his OGE stint have been 10th at 2013 Tour de Suisse and 5th at both 2013 Tour of California and Tour of Turkey. The latter are NOT WT events but can still see some strong fields and involve some significant climbing. Illness DID make some major inroads into his 2014 race season.

In all honesty, Meyer is not going to be a GT GC contender, not is he likely to ever be a mega-star. Could he win individual stages at GTs – quite likely, he’s already had a close run or two. One week races – he’s shown that he can win stages; high finishes and some decent WT points.

One suspects he’s already re-calibrated his own expectations with regards to his future roles. He’s shown an ability and willingness to do the “grunt work” for others in key races. He is also a key component in TTTs which are a part in at least 2 of the 3 years GTs and the World TTT Championship also brings large WT points for win/podiums. One suspects that he would find a home at other WT teams.

Might we be saying the same or similar in a couple of years with Rohan Dennis ? He’s shown himself to be potentially an elite level ITTer but as yet t’s unproven whether he can climb with the elite/GT contenders over a 3 week GT. That remains to be established. The Yates twins look to be potentially top level climbers but, to date, their TT skills remain a significant deficit.

You can look at OGE’s relatively lean pickings over this AUS racing season I a number of ways. An indication of greater strength in AUS pro ranks outside their ranks ? The view expressed that their approach to these races has been overly Gerrans-centric (understandable given his palmares of 2014) ?

Perhaps a wider view can be taken that they DIDN’T overreact to Gerrans’ absence by disrupting the intended programs of other key riders on the squad by drafting them in to these Australian races. Whilst having a major pay-day at Nationals is certainly nice, the ever-growing depth of these fields mean this can never be a given. Likewise with TdU, whilst it’s great to start the World Tour with a massive swag of points and have a major showing in front of home fans; it is still only one race on the calendar. They actually went away from the 2013 TdU with a far lesser points haul (Gerrans 1 stage win).

Maybe after the “banner year” of 2014, they MAY be in for a lean one … who knows ? Those expecting any real results out of Ewan in his first season in the big boys are likely to be disappointed. Will there be 2nd season syndrome with the Yates twins ? Are some of those riders nudging mid 30’s due to hit the ‘downward slope’ with regards to performance/results (Gerrans/Albasini) ?

One positive I will remark on are their recent signings. In Jack Haig and Robert Power, they’ve certainly picked he most promising local “climbing talent” if their 2014 Avenir perfomances are anything to go by …… and certainly a pre-emptive strike before other WT teams jumped in. Edmondson is track endurance and is still likely to be a part of Rio teams pursuit so that may be his prime focus until then.

Riders race schedules, especially for key riders that are looked upon to deliver major results, are set by the end of the previous season and their preparation/start of the season set accordingly. Bling is being set for certain spring races and will make his start in Europe. The AUS races, therefore, were not part of this schedule for 2015, and he has been preparing overseas with some of the Euro based riders.

The team obviously made the call that he is of sufficient importance to the team NOT to re-jig his schedule to cover for Gerrans; ditto for the Yates’ twins. The other similar rider to Gerrans, Albasini, also had a nasty spill and time off the bike at a similar time which precluded drafting him in to fill the gap.

Re Meyer; last season was a relatively poor one with illness having a major impact. On his showings over his past 3 WT seasons, his climbing is not at a level to realistically become a GT GC rider. GT stages – plausible. As for one week tours, he has delivered top 10 finishes at Tour de Suisse, Tour of California and Tour of Turkey and stage wins in each of the last 2 Tour de Suisse. Somehow, I think he has recalibrated his expectations as have OGE. Whilst he’s never likely to become a mega-star, I would suspect he would still get a ride at a number of other WT teams.

Am struggling to see WHERE he’s likely to pick up wins outside of AUS. Whilst he has good top end pace, his lack of physical maturity counts against him. His rides at Comm Games, Ride London & some Tour of Beijing sprints showed his physical limitations. Hopefully OGE are sensible in bringing him on steadily this year and DON’T send him out to get “beaten up” by major sprint fields.

Frankly, I’d keep him away from WT races as much as possible and send him to one week races such as Tour of Cali, Turkey, Slovenia and 2nd level one dayers. There he’ll come up against some top liners or 2nd tier sprinters but not be mugged by “full fields”; there he’ll also have to contend with some tough conditions and learn how to battle his way to the finish inside time cuts. Given his lack of legs, a few HDs would not surprise during the year

Ah, but WHEN are you going to be able to get your squad of riders together to mould them into a cohesive unit ? You can have a collection of outstanding ITT riders but due to their differing methods of racing they may not come together as a workable unit. Some great TTers DO make outstanding TTT riders but that is due to them understanding the capabilities of their team mates whereas others tend to “blow up” their team mates by impossible pacing.

Whilst I see the attraction of national TTT squads at Worlds, the only way I’d see it “getting up” is if there was a corresponding push to re-introduce it to the Olympics. What mitigates against this is just how many nations would realistically be able to field competitive squads of say 6 riders ? Yes, AUS would have to rate very highly, ditto GBR but then it thins out a little. USA probable, GER perhaps, NED & RUS maybe. Hard to cobble together a field of say 10-12 competitive teams

You then have to factor in a corresponding women’s race and it’s even thinner. USA & GBR would be powerful as most likely NED & GER but then it gets really thin. AUS would be struggling to put together a viable team.

To be brutally honest, I feel Ewan is “over hyped” and those expecting wins against “the big boys” or even the second tier sprinters during the main season are likely to come up disappointed.

He has some speed and clearly high potential but his outings at Comm Games and even Tour of Beijing showed up that he is a long way from being strong enough or having a big enough “engine”. It would not surprise to see him have a few HD/failures to make time cut if he is sent to some one week tours due to this deficiency.

Hopefully OGE will be sensible with his preparation and race program for 2015. If he comes up with any early season results in AUS, then that’s nice but not really meaningful in the wider context.

Tour of Beijing failed because it was a “manufactured product” immediately promoted to/imposed on the World Team. Other events such as TdU served an “apprenticeship” rising “through the grades” where riders/teams/UCI got a clear read on the race itself/the capacity of it’s organisation/financial support and support from the public and relevant levels of government.

Qinghai Lake probably has the biggest profile and at least has “a track record”. There could at least be a case for it’s promotion but perhaps distance from major centres is a drawback. One could put up cases for Langkawi or Tour of Turkey. IF Alberta were to be promoted, it would be at the expense of one or both the Laurentian one-day races. Is there a case for promoting Tour de San Luis (ARG) at some point in the future ?

Why aren’t any of the US races World Tour ?? The Americans themselves are the issue. The bulk of their existing domestic teams aren’t willing to “pony up” to Pro Conti level and sign on to the Bio Passport and the organisers of TOC/Utah/Colorado go “oh no, we can’t leave out our American domestic teams ….. the fans wouldn’t stand for it and it’ll break the poor little All-American hearts of the riders”.

I fully agree with the need to balance tradition with (sensible) international expansion. The major counter issue is the financial health of the economies of some of the traditional nations. Sponsor dollars are harder to come by, both for teams and races and the resources of regional authorities (especially in Spain) have less to throw at promoting cycling races. A number of existing SPA races are, apparently, on life support and it may be a case of die or drop to a lower level (as some FRA/ITA races have) to survive at all.

Disagree with you on both counts. Howson was riding quite well early season but has tapered off considerably. He, Durbridge & Hepburn probably had one big effort left in them for the year ….. and it was more sensible they ride the TTT rather than enter in the TT just to make up the numbers.

Outside WT ?? A few years ago there was a reasonable number of AUS riders on the US circuit including some good TTers but they’ve either retired or moved on. Drapac ?? Sorry …. no takers. Apart from TdU & Langkawi, what other high profile race starts have they had ?

The choice re U/23 IS puzzling but I can go with the decision re the Elite race. IF there WAS a top-level TTer, other than Dennis, with clearly good recent form then I think they’d have been called up. Sadly, I’m not seeing any others. They’ve given TT rides in the previous 2 Worlds to “worn out” riders (2012 – Durb/Meyer, 2013 – Porte) and the results have told the story.

Durbridge has basically “ran out of gas” after the Giro then going full distance at the Tour. He was caught by Dowsett at Comm Games and finished well off the podium. This is Hepburn’s first full year on the road after 2012 & 2013 were split by track commitments. He, too, was off the pace at Comm Games which suggests his best form for 2014 is behind him. Maybe THIS hints as to why no1 & no2 at National TT didn’t ride at Worlds. The timing of AUS Nats is unrealistic with regards to making it a selection criteria for Worlds given the near full major season time gap and the vagaries of form that are likely to intrude over that period.

Rogers made himself unavailable for Worlds selection as did Porte. Rogers’ best TT days are, by his own admission, behind him and Porte is probably not elite class as a TTer in any case. The other AUS TTer of any pedigree, Meyer, was ill at the Vuelta which ruled him out.

He made himself unavailable for selection.

Gerrans, Matthews & Evans would appear to be the ‘protected riders’. Dennis almost certainly one of the 2 TT spots; Durbridge would be the regular pick for the other spot but hasn’t had the greatest of seasons so maybe Hepburn or Sutherland. Porte is NOT an elite level TTer on the flat. If Hansen and Clarke have recovered OK from the Vuelta; I’d select them as both workers with Hansen perhaps given license for a breakaway. Clarke seems to have gelled well for final kms with Matthews. If Hepburn gets the TT nod, he and Meyer would be the guys for the long stints on the front. Last spot is somewhat of a lottery; you’d love to have Rogers present as “road captain”. Hayman has the experience but this is not ideal topography.