Football_Wunderkind's Roar Profile

How do you think the bean counters at FFA would weigh it all up if the boss came to them and said “do a mathematical analysis to figure out our most profitable path of qualifying”

It would be an interesting process and answer.

E.G. * Qualifying automatically by beating Iraq = 100% chance of $8 million, 50% chance of $9million.

* Finish 3rd and chance 2 play off’s = 100% chance of $5M, 75% chance of $10M, 45% chance of $18M

I am sure mathematicians could come up with some sort of formula that would show the most profitable course in terms of risk weighed against profit.
*

This Uruguay situation is even uglier when you consider that Brazil is not playing. They would be hovering around 6th and 7th.

If we went down that path of playing Iran and then Uruguay then that would be white hot tension. I am secretly cheering for it even though ultimately I want WCQ. If I knew in advance Australia would play Iran and then Uruguay for a WC berth and that they won through, I would take that in an instant over automatic qualifying through Iraq.

Imagine the papers, the story, the drama. Play Iran at the MCG to exorcise the demons. Uruguay at Stadium Australia.

But in the end it wouldn’t be so bad if we got to the play Uruguay again but lost. Purely on gate takings Australia would be in front financially of qualifying for the World Cup group stages.

$8 Million USD for making the group stage. I think a full house at Stadium Australia rakes in at least $6-7 million USD in profit. Times that by 2 and you got a tidy profit.

I suppose a bird in the hand is always better than 2 in the bush but it would make for an interesting risk assessment exercise just for financial purposes.

Play off’s and beating Iran = $14 million minimum (more if a match is hosted at MCG)
World cup group stage = $8 million
World Cup Round of 16 = $9 million
World Cup 1/4 Final = $14 million

The ultimate financial combination would be Play offs and qualifying = $14 million + $8 Million

The question is… are the Socceroos more likely to beat Iran or make a 1/4 final at the World Cup.

Read above… It is rotated around the confederations. Last time around the Americas played off. Costa Rica v Uruguay. There is no politics here… they quite fairly rotate the play-off fixtures around.

If they wanted to rig it then they would have had NZ v Uruguay last time around and NZ would have been spanked. Costa Rica would probably have beaten Bahrain also.

Asia didn’t play South America for the 2006 World Cup. It was Australia (still in Oceania) v Uruguay

Stop clutching at straws and just check a few facts.

They rotate it around the confederations.

2006 = OFC v CONMEBOL = Australia v Uruquay
AFC v CONCACAF = Bahrain v Trinidad & Tobago

2010 = OFC v AFC = NZ v Bahrain
CONCACAF v CONMEBOL = Costa Rica v Uruguay

2014 = AFC v CONMEBOL = ??? v ???
= OFC v CONCACAF = NZ v ???

The conversation so far, seems to lend itself to the idea that if you take the over 30’s then they are automatically going to start and play every minute.

If Schwarzer gets picked up by a decent club then he is first picked.
If you take Lucas Neill and Sasa Og then you know they are going to start. Why would you take a 30+ defender and have him sit on the bench. (Sasa Og has stood up the last 2 games and I think his ticket is stamped either way)

Luke Wilkshire goes.

Mark Bresciano has shown his hand and how valuable he is in CM however he may not start every game. For example, against the top 8 nation that we will inevitably be matched against, you could play Jedinak and Milligan/Valeri and bring on Bresciano as a pinch hitter.

Cahill definitely goes and I can’t see a valid argument for not taking him.

Kewell and Thompson are the tricky ones and the argument can be mounted to take them as super subs. The situation might come up where we need to score a goal. Thompson came on against Jordan and you could see the immediate impact. Kewell has the technique to change a game.

Emerton is gonski, we have a perfectly capable RB in Wilkshire and our right side of attack is turning on the style with Kruse firing. Which is funny because out of all the veterans, you would have chosen Brett Emerton to be still firing considering he was once confirmed as Australia’s fittest athlete.

So when you argue against taking the 30+ guys, have a think about the way they may be utilized before discounting them.

Which of the ageing Socceroos would you take to Brazil?

Wikipedia is showing Egypt as having replaced Japan but I can’t find anything absolutely official.

Copa America is so fan friendly as well.

The fans have heaps more access to the players.
Compared to the sterile WC and Euro Champs

Definitely a must for any discerning fan who wants the lot

I actually wrote a comment piece about that very idea.

My bad…

I firmly believed that the 1 tournament a year was a rule…
Upon further research… I have discovered it is just the European clubs firing up and trying to ‘protect’ their players/interests.

In that case

SEND A FULL STRENGTH SOCCEROOS SQUAD TO THE COPA AMERICA

P.S. I have booked my annual leave and am spending 4 weeks in Argentina around say July 1 to July 24 to watch a few football matches called the COPA AMERICA.

Anyone else got similar plans?

It wasn’t going to be the same Japanese squad that played in the Asian Cup.

That rule about only playing in one FIFA sanctioned tournament has come out in the wash regarding the whole Great Britain Olympic team.

If Theo Walcott plays in the Olympics…then he can be denied the right to go play in the Euro Champs and vice versa.
The players club… in this case Arsenal can deny him playing in the second tournament.

Through Asia, Australia have a fairer route, not an easier route to the World Cup.

What better way to develop Canadian football than exposing their teams and public to a high quality Brazil or Argentina in high intensity World Cup qualifier? ….. Every year.

Canadian kids might see Leo Messi at his best and change their favorite player from Wayne Gretsky to him?
The Canadian FA will get ticket revenue from a sold out stadium. The price of Canadian football TV rights would increase.
Now the Canadian FA has money to implement a solid youth set up with the appropriate infrastructure.

Pretty soon … Canadians are technical and tactical enough to consistently qualify for the FIFA World Cup.

I am seeing a lot of comments from people that go along the lines of “why would CONCACAF give up 3+1/2 quaranteed spots”

This is such a superficial response. Think about it long term. If the status quo remains in CONCACAF… pretty soon… Countries like Honduras, Jamaica, El Salvador, Trinidad, Cuba and Canada will get tired of trying to jag a spot in a World Cup.

The fact is that at the moment and for the next 50 years. It isn’t 3 and 1/2 spots that is “sewn up” for CONCACAF. The only thing that is sewn up is that the USA and Mexico get a free ride to the World Cup and 38 other nations are left to fight it out for 1 and half spots.

Merge the Americas and have 3 groups of 8 teams trying to finish top 3. or 4 groups of 7 trying to finish top 2. Expose the also rans to a higher standard of football.

My article wasn’t about World Cup spots and petty things like this.,.. It was about maximizing the potential of football in a region which could be doing things so much better.

Why would the South lose a lot of income?

New revenue streams are opened through competitive games involving the USA, Mexico and Canada.

The question/problem that needs an answer is the current stagnation that this the CONCACAF region.

The GOLD cup is played in the USA every rotation nowadays. U/23 teams are often fielded. All the games are double headers even in the knockout stages. It is a bit of joke.

The WCQ is also repetitive and tiresome. In the 2010 qualifiers, the USA played Trinidad & Tobago 4 times!! Twice in 2 different group stages. Ditto with Honduras and Mexico … Count Costa Rica and El Salvador into this ridiculous situation.

I am betting the fans of these countries are dying for change, for re-invigoration.

Other than saying “it will never happen”… People tell me some better solutions than the status quo that is CONCACAF ???

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