Its fist time I have commented one of your articles for sure. Maybe stick your video analysis comfort zone if you don’t like the push back.

Nick you didn’t need to say it. It is very clearly implied by your article. At least I have the guts to put a number on it because that all your talking about. Lack of depth. It would great if you came out and provide some detail about specific positions where we are short and provided a range of strategies to address the issue. Instead all you saying lets cut team so we can raise to greatness. In the real world business don’t just trash their assets because it gets too hard.

I make not apologies for the characterization of your analysis.

Mate I worked in corporate restructuring for a number of years. I know what failure looks like. I now work in corporate transformation so also I know that with the right leadership, vision and strategy a lot can be achieved, even when everything looks dire.

He’s the numb of our differences IMO. Your still looking at this all thought the SANZARR Super rugby lens and I am not. I see a 10 team comp with a lot of white space to be filled in and anyone who has ever worked in the transformation game know that this is very exciting.

Start filling in the white space Nick.

Show it to me. 3 each teams equated to what, 20 extra games broadcast per season at $500k per game and NZRU get 1/3 of this. I bet they argued with all the strength they could muster.

Hey Jacko. Thanks for taking the time to register as guest to make this comment.

I am going to rebut some of your comments

Firstly there is not 75 players of Sr quality that dont already have rugby contracts somewhere and are earning pretty good cash for doing so.

So the way most employment works is that employees contract with employers. Employees can choose and so can employers. That’s the basics. Rugby contracting works exactly the same way. Please don’t come back and say ‘but they are playing overseas and making so much money they won’t come back’. I work overseas and make good money. I can’t wait to get home.

Do you really believe NZ has these extra 75 guys sitting around playing club or M10 rugby and if they are any good NZ has them contracted anyway as any decent players are the injury covers and backups for the NZ SR sides…

Well NZRU seem to think so. I mean anyone who thinks that pacificka team they want in Auckland is going to filled with people actual live in the pacific island is very very naive. So I will concede somewhat on this point but I would say there is at least 40 players that NZRU think are ready. Ok so now we need to find another 35 players. Well the rest are playing overseas somewhere. Refer to my first point.

Secondly if Aus franchises decided to buy OS talent it would come an a huge financial cost…And who in Aus has that sort of money?

This is very fair comment but this is where imagination comes in. You see, I think you looking at this from the past performance = past context point of view. This is brand new competition with brand new sponsors and broadcast agreements. Its hard for me argue against you logic but I can image a world where this competition is seen as the premier rugby competition in the world that attracts a commensurate level of commercial interest. So may be what is affordable and not affordable still needs to play out but we can still image what is possible.

Andrew Forrest is in the legacy business. Enough said.

Yeah Fred I had that ad ringing in my ears as I wrote my comment. Its was a rugby comment though just to be clear.

Nick
Firstly, lets be honest here. RA didn’t decide to expand its footprint in isolation. NZRU were as much incentivised to expand the comp as Australia was and as reported the NZRU pushed for it without having to bare much of the pain apart from – “why do we have play all these inferior teams”.
This why I think RA more assertive approach in this current context is to be commended, at least we only thinking about our interests first.
Second, what are those interests? Well obviously at the top of list is no further disenfranchisement of hard won fans in the expansion zones. A late pull out from Melbourne will have more long term consequences than if done by a virgin on prom night.
In the period leading up the GFC there were literally armies of analyst out there making perfectly rational assessments and predictions about all those toxic financial products. I see that same happening with respect to a 5 Australian team TT model.
If your thesis is that Australian does not have 75 quality players to form the foundation of 5 squads in Super Rugby then I say you are correct. I infer that your solution to this problem is that we cut 2 teams.
Well all I can say to that is what a shallow and unimaginative solution you are offering.
I mean there must be some country in the world that has a surplus of 75 players to bulk up the squads. Can you think of one, close by maybe?
Regarding the finances. You’re right again, RA is skint but lets not kid ourselves into thinking the NZRU is bastion of financial management. That surplus diminishes each and every year by millions of dollars and they are long way from their next world cup (unless we share ours). Also Twiggy Forrest’s net worth is probably bigger than NZ GDP (jokes) but seriously his annual dividend stream is multiples of RA & NZRU combined revenues.
In summary I think yourself and select other group of analyst are doing what you’re trained to do. Use past performance as predictor of future performance. However, IMO there is one underlying weakness that you need to correct for which is past performance = past context. When things aren’t changing that is fine. In this context its just lazy analysis.

Brett, your prediction rest on one key factor IMO. NZRU ability to do a deal. History does not bode well for this. Here are some highlights;
– 2003 World Cup
– 2015 expansion of SR to 18 team pushed by NZRU

Your interpretation that NZRU can do what every they want with their reviews etc…is entirely correct and that may well be problem here. See NZRU appear to see themselves – in the southern hemisphere context – as the BCCI of rugby, basically what they say goes. Unfortunately they appear to completely misinterpret where the BCCI gets their power from. Hint:Its not because the Indian’s love cricket and are really good at it.

So we could very well end up with the maligned domestic option next year even if its done just to show the NZRU that we can do it without them. Unfortunately for NZRU I can’t say they will be able generate same level value from the strategic independence they believe they have.

What’s the punishment mechanism? In my profession if you are knowingly dishonest you lose your credentials and get fired.

Thanks Geoff. The reporting from the news cop hack squad has been disgraceful. Halloran is by far the worst of the bunch as well. Has she ever written an honest article about rugby? Not in 2020 that is for sure.
I don’t know if there is some code amongst journos whereby you don’t call each other out. If there is then I I hope your breaking of that code causes some of these people to take stock before publishing in future. Based on my interaction with The Australian sports editor about this very topic I doubt much will happen.
Ps. I thought Brett Harris retired at the same time as Rocky Elsom.

Yeah man. I was right. Enough said.

I dunno man MK and DHP are pretty good and Matt T. The Brumbies don’t win games because of their backline. They are a very good backline unit but individually not as dominate I would say.

This is going to be interesting game. Probably the best measure of Tah’s backs progress will come out it. They haven’t played against a back-line of that caliber yet. So the man on man match ups will be interesting to watch. If the Tah’s forwards play the way they did last week they will win.
Note. That will require Rob Simmons to play two extraordinary games in a row.

My statement was tautological. I happy to stop here. We obviously agree on the core benefits of NRC (player development) which is enough for me. This thread started with someone saying that basically the NRC achieved nothing blah blah blah. That statement is a fallacy. Hope whatever come next is as good at player development because what we had before the NRC obviously wasn’t very good at all.

I’ll bet I can name more players who made it via NRC in last five years than you can find exceptions to the norm.

Petaia played for Qld Country. Make of that what you will sir.

I stopped reading after And it failed miserably here – by every single possible measure..

So your someone who never saw an NRC game. I remember the first one I went to. A little fella called Samu Kerevi was playing in the centres. Said to my mate, that kid is going play Wallabies next year and he did. I watched the SS game on the weekend. It was great but what also struck me was the poor conditioning and shape a lot of the key players were in. Dudes playing were walking around with full on beer guts. That’s fine, in fact its commendable in most case but not if you’re trying to be high performance competition. Shute Shield trying to be Australia’s national rugby standard is like NZ telling us we can only have 2 teams in their little competition. Taking the piss.

There are two measures that it didn’t fail at Champ. You gotten anything else to say.

Club rugby is great and it is certainty a far cheaper experience. That is because players don’t get paid much if at all. Also everyone you see wearing a club shirt running around to make the day work don’t get paid either. These are the people what keep your beer cold and stake burgers hot. In part 4 you proposed a bulked up club comp which leads into provisional team. I really like this model.

If it is going to be successful then club players will have to paid some regular stipend at a minimum. The Pillar to Post podcast who covered this topic extensively this week. Their guest was premier rugby player (UQ). His main point was that for players who want to go to next steps and who aren’t on full professional contract there is no real incentive for them. Not even petrol money to help with cost of travel. They’re been asked to train like semi-pros but are not given any financial reward.

Until club rugby can really commercialize its product then it is fantasy to say the current amateur model can transform into semi-professional model without some significant capital investment and the painful realization for some of the current premier club teams that they don’t have the foundations to continue at that level nationally. I am speaking from Qld perspective but from what I read about the shut shield (despite what they say) they’ll puff and no pastry as well.

Hey mate, really appreciate the effort and intellect that you’re putting into this series. There’s always holes to be picked but honestly I have had this entire conversation at 4am 3 bags deep so many times. “How can we save rugby!”. This is the best manifestation of this chat I have ever seen. The club to representative model is exactly the approach RA needs to take if NZ out of the mix.

I’ll just leave this here.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/twiggy-warms-to-australian-rugby-as-force-exile-ends-20200710-p55aus.html

I hear what your saying. RA was able to extract $9m from Fox for shorted rugby season. So I guess that means there is some money out there. At the end of day I think the main point is that RA aren’t kowtowing to NZRU. We may be weak but we definitely don’t want to appear desperate and killing 3 teams just to have the privilege to play with NZ provincial teams just doesn’t seem worth it to me. Maybe we can’t bring any internal players but so what. I know one that thing well never change, Australia is 5x bigger than NZ. If we get out act together we can become a dominate rugby market in the Southern Hemisphere.

Sure. One other point to consider is that if there is money to made someone will figure out how to do it. I think McLennan’s Big Bash reference is telling. He knows what it is required to take a sporting comp from irrelevance to the back page. This all part of the game that is been played right now.

This is all getting very intriguing. I like that McLennan came out quickly and said “No way. We’ll do our own thing. Good luck”. I hope it calls their bluff. Aus is 5x larger than NZ and right next door.

He certainly has been the form player at the Tah’s. I don’t know about your analogy to the nags. If he is that far ahead at Flemington then it is only because they are making their way into the first turn and still have about 2km to run. a.ka. The Melbourne Cup. There are some other very good chances in this field, not just roughies, So lets see where they all line up when the race is finished.

Yeah but Kernsy was pulled out randwick to play for the Wallabies. So why can’t we do more of that.

Regards
Alan Jones.

Great article. Good read.

I am massive Harry Wilson and Fraser McRight fan and also a Reds fan.

Spot on about Swinton. The above-mentioned are more talented players by far but I have been watching that kid play for 18 months now and I reckon he might be something special. That mongrel in him is raw and real. Not only does he look like someone that bash you outside a 7-11 at 4am, I also believe he would actually do this if he wasn’t playing rugby. He stopped the Reds from bullying the Tahs last night.

This is the type of mongrel that Australian rugby has been missing for too long. Put all three of these special talents together and you have one hell of a back row.

Caveat. Swinton needs to refine some of his rough edges. This should be a priority project for Dave Rennie.