I had a drink today with a London stockbroker who works for one of the big firms in the city. He’s about forty, very well groomed, and was wearing a top of the line Hugo Boss.
He also follows rugby, as well as the market, and he had this to say about the games coming up on the weekend.
“I’m a contrarian. I tend to buy certain companies that are being rubbished in the financial press, and sell certain companies that are being praised.
“I’ve always gone against the herd because the herd is too often swept up by market momentum, and they too seldom examine the fundamentals.
“It’s the same with rugby internationals. A lot of people overlook the fundamentals and allow themselves to be swayed by patriotic feelings.
“They want their team to win, therefore they think it will win. That’s a little like thinking an investment is going to do well because you want it to do well.
“So for the weekend’s rugby I’ve factored all the info I could gather into the mix – who’s injured, who isn’t, who’s playing in which position, how they did last time out, strengths and weaknesses of their opponents, it’s a long list – then I checked the popular forecasts and found, not to my surprise, that I don’t agree with them.”
“Okay, so let’s hear your contrary predictions.”
“The Wallabies will beat Ireland. France will beat South Africa. Fiji will beat Scotland, and the All Blacks will score three tries and Italy none.”
“That’s four results. How many do you need to be correct to call it a good weekend?”
“Three.”
“How about the Pumas and England?”
“I can’t be a contrarian on that one, and it’s not because I’m English. It’s because England have Wilko and Argentina doesn’t.”
We had another round then he said goodbye, got into his chauffeured Merc, and zoomed away. So he clearly knows his financial onions.
But is he as smart about rugby as he is about finance? I can’t wait to find out.
Incidentally, when I got back to the office, I went with the herd and bought 50 shares of Apple.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Chiefs coach Clayton McMillan says it’s “purely coincidental” that Semipeni Finau has put on a massive, late hit on a fourth fly-half in nine…
He was born 1905, 1904 or 1908 according to various reports, in Wairoa, Hawkes Bay, and is remembered as one of the great Māori players.
I don’t really get the comparisons between Joey Manu and Sonny Bill Williams. I realise they have the Roosters in common, along with a…
All Blacks star Jordie Barrett has announced a sabbatical to play with Irish club Leinster at year's end, while committing his future to New…
There are those who will forever play the man - and not the ball - where TJ Perenara is concerned. The All Blacks and…
I well remember the day a New Zealand Rugby staffer put their hands on me. It seems I’d made them angry.The Wellington Sevens was…
