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The British rugby establishment is awaiting the annual Southern Hemisphere rugby invasion of the Northern Hemisphere nations with a similar awe and puffed up defiance as the Romans adopted when they tried – unsuccessfully – to confront the barbarian hordes.
There will be the usual accusations of too much overtly brutal play, intimidation and of foul cheating tactics from the British rugby establishment after the Southern Hemisphere wins.
The occasional Northern Hemisphere victory will be acclaimed as an indicator that the rugby culture of the Northern Hemisphere, and its determination to keep the laws of the game as constipated as possible, has been triumphantly and perhaps even majestically (if one of these victories is by more than ten points) justified.
After the Hong Kong Bledisloe Cup Test, The Sunday Telegraph’s (UK) Paul Ackford, a rugby writer I admire, felt impelled to put the boot in by claiming, rather bizarrely, that the unpopularity of local Bledisloe Cup Tests was the reason why the series was moved offshore.
Sorry Paul, the exact opposite is the case.
The popularity of the series was the reason why another Test was added to the series and played in Hong Kong, to a full house, too.
The Usual Suspect insisted that the Wallabies and the All Blacks showed “nothing to terrify the European teams … although there was enough to show any victory will be hard-won.”
Brian Moore in his Daily Telegraph (UK) column reckoned that if England win two out of the four Tests, it will play against Southern Hemisphere teams that “will be an acceptable target, any more will be a real bonus.”
As England are playing the Pacific Islanders, Australia, South Africa and New Zealand, with the Pacific Islanders game generally accepted as an England win, Moore expects the home side to win only one Test against the three top Southern Hemisphere teams.
This is hardly a ringing endorsement of the strength and virtues of the English approach to playing rugby.
Lawrence Dallaglio, again in the Daily Telegraph, has indicated that he doesn’t believe England players are fit enough to really feel confident in knocking over all, or some, of their Southern Hemisphere opponents. He also made the point that since the 2003 RWC, the Six Nations sides had played the SANZAR nations 76 times, and won a paltry 13 of these contests (France winning 5, England 4, Ireland 3, Wales 1).
The Six Nations establishment likes to think that their ideas about how rugby should be played (the laws and so on, including refereeing interpretations) and the structure of the game (the various tournaments and world season) should be run entirely according to their dictates. This sort of arrogance would be, almost acceptable, if it were matched by successful practice on and off the field.
How many European coaches, for instance, are being chased to coach in Southern Hemisphere nations?
Another indication of the alarming lack of rugby intellectual and playing property comes from some statistics produced by Shaun Edwards, the rugby league great, who is the defence coach for Wales.
Since professionalism in 1996, Wales has played the Southern Hemisphere super-powers 31 times. Wales is the reigning Six Nations champions, but in that thirteen year period they have recorded just two victories against the Southern Hemisphere powers: against South Africa in 1999 (when Graham Henry was coach) and against the Wallabies in 2006 (when Scott Johnson was involved in the coaching staff).
Wales plays the Springboks at the start of the Southern Hemisphere invasion. The Springboks are coming off a stunning 53 – 8 massacre of the Wallabies.
They have an outstanding side, except for the five-eighth position, and a coach who seems to be rather unfocused. Earl Rose, a slight, flighty and occasionally brilliant player, and Rian Pienaar are being groomed to solve the five-eighths problem.
If this works, you’d have to fancy the Springboks going through their three Test tour undefeated.
This presumes that their long-time inability to win away from home has been resolved after their 2007 RWC victory and the win this year against the All Blacks at Dunedin.
The All Blacks have an incredibly hard tour involving (if one includes the Hong Kong Test) five Tests and a mid-week match against Munster in 28 days.
They start their Grand Slam quest against Scotland, a side they often have difficulty running over.
Scotland has not won a Test against New Zealand ever. But they are the masters of dirty tricks to unsettle opponents. Against the Wallabies a few years ago, they played on the narrowest field possible. Against the All Blacks in the 2007 RWC, they lied to the IRB about their jerseys and the All Blacks found themselves playing in an away kit that was virtually the same as Scotland’s.
And last year, too, they presented a forward pack that was incredibly bulked up. The recent accusation of illegal drug-taking by a Scottish forward has raised some eyebrows.
The Wallabies have, seemingly, the easiest opening match of the Southern Hemisphere invasion with a Test against Italy at Padova. I say seemingly because the last time the teams played, the Italian pack monstered the Wallabies and it was a close-run victory for the Australians.
After Hong Kong, I am not terribly confident about the quality of the Wallaby pack, especially the front row. Italy are coached by Nick Mallett, a sophisticated rugby thinker who took the Springboks to a record sequence of seventeen Test wins.
If the Wallabies can get enough ball and move it around using the width of the field, they should be able to record a strong victory.
If the Southern Hemisphere nations win their matches, I would not expect any praise from the British rugby establishment. There will be the usual accusations and recriminations.
If there are losses by the Southern Hemisphere teams, the boot will be put in about how airy-fairy Super 14 rugby is, how the Southern Hemisphere teams are chokers, and so on.
Unfortunately, the bleatings of the British rugby establishment are as predictable and as boring as the play of their major teams, with the exception of Wales.