Gold Coast expansion may be too much, too soon

Columnist

By Adrian Musolino, 1 Apr 2009 Adrian Musolino is a Roar Expert

Tagged:: AFL, football, Gold Coast Football Club

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Gold Coast Football Club has booked its place in the AFL for 2011, provisionally at least. It’s boom time for the Coast: A-League, AFL, NRL, NBL (or whatever it’ll be called) franchises and one of Australia’s most popular motorsport festivals. Everyone’s on board, but is it a road to nowhere?

A decade ago, none of these franchises existed and the Gold Coast had no representation in a national code.

Why now the mad rush to Coolangatta airport for the leading codes’ powers that be?

Sure the Gold Coast is booming, but can it sustain all these franchises, all still in their infancy, all in a region with a questionable sporting heritage, supporter base and franchise record?

The recent Queensland election was crucial to the next step in this sporting proliferation with Anna Bligh’s victory ensuring over $60 million into the redevelopment of an AFL stadium and crucial support for the GCFC.

Interesting footnote, too, that Gold Coast United (A-League) billionaire owner, Clive Palmer, was reported to be one of the biggest financial supporters of the rival Liberal National Party, while Gold Coast Titans (NRL) officials have already publicly derided the long term sustainability of the AFL franchise.

At the GCFC announcement, AFL boss Andrew Demetriou went out of his way to avoid comparisons with the struggles of the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Bears in establishing themselves and growing their supporter base in a non-AFL state.

But the difference is going to be the financial assistance from government and code, helped by having their own stadium, according to Demetriou.

This doesn’t answer, however, how it is going to generate a significant crowd in a city that is now so overpopulated by various codes and yet under-populated at present to support these franchises.

Despite all the talk of a booming region with its economic might and being a haven for migrants from the southern ‘cold’ states, the population of the Gold Coast is still approximately one eighth of Sydney’s, over three million shy of Melbourne’s, and about half of Adelaide’s.

It is Australia’s fastest growing area, but it still has a way to go.

According to the Gold Coast City Council, the population projected for 2021 will still only be 683,568.

What’s odd here too is that the biggest contributor to the region’s economy is tourism, believed to account for one in every four jobs: whether it’s the hotels, timeshare apartments, resorts, theme parks and so on. So primarily it’s a city that sees people coming and going regularly.

The competition, therefore, from non-sporting entities such as theme parks, beaches and nightclubs is a lot more intense than, say, in Adelaide.

It isn’t in a position population wise or economically to sustain these franchises at present, hence the over-reliance on government support and the philanthropic actions of billionaires.

Seeing its growth potential, the major codes have all rushed into the Gold Coast, following each other so as not to miss out on the possible dividends.

But this is all speculative.

What if the region’s growth stagnates? What if the tourism industry dries up? And, more importantly, what if football and the AFL can’t establish enough of a supporter base to detract fans from the rugby codes?

Remember, this is Queensland!

As these franchises fight over such a small area, expect to see a real battle between the codes for supremacy.

In the space of only a few years, the Gold Coast has become one of the most densely populated sporting capitals within Australia.

Whether it can sustain that remains to be seen.

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The Crowd Says (25) | Page 1 of Comments

Redb said | April 1st 2009 @ 7:23am | Report comment

Adrian,

GC17 will have a stadium with a capacity of only 25,000 for probably 15-20 years. In AFL terms that is small with usual capacities around the 40,000+ mark. It is right sized for the market. If the intention was to build a Telstra Dome on the Gold Coast I would be far more concerned that expectations were exceeding reality.

Code war rhetoric and action is more likely to come from code administrators not fans as already evidenced by the Titans stance and Palmers objections. They’re trying to protect their turf – they failed.

The Titans are the biggest team on the GC with very good support, can’t see that changing.

GC17 have good grass roots support, the Bris Lions up the road and fans of Melb clubs who will jump at a chance of a short break up to the GC for 3-4 days whilst taking in a game. Plus an AFL administration with a future vision and deep enough pockets to see it through.

GC Palmer has plenty of big bucks to sustain the team through the lean times as well.

Basketball remains the weakest link.

Each sport has it’s core support, the Titans the biggest, the others will depend on grass roots and eventual success to build more core support.

I’m not so pessimistic and reckon all 3 will just fine.

Redb

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Michael C said | April 1st 2009 @ 7:54am | Report comment

A decade ago, none of these franchises existed and the Gold Coast had no representation in a national code.

not entirely accurate -

Gold Coast Chargers were a rugby league team which played in the New South Wales Rugby League premiership from 1988 to 1994, the Australian Rugby League premiership from 1995 to 1997, and the National Rugby League premiership in 1998.

Also, the Brisbane Bears began their life on the Gold Coast, and only by the early/mid 1990s did they make the full transition to Brisbane (aptly given the name).

So, in this regard, BOTH the NRL and AFL are restoring previous arrangements more or less.

The KEY to South Queensland is that Brisbane is not so dominated by one code (i.e. number of ‘franchises’ if you like) as is Melbourne or Sydney. Brisbane/Gold Coast is far far more like an AMerican model, where the city will have it’s NFL team, NHL, NBA and MLB and now MLS. 5 franchises in different national sports is fine. The fact that only the NRL and AFL overlap, but, each offers different levels of exposure into different markets – means for now, they provide a bit of a complimentary service!!!! And the HAL, in a different way, and non-overlapping across summer, and via the potential of ACL and a potential Asian/international exposure offers another value proposition.

Brisbane/Gold Coast SHOULD be fine.

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Michael C said | April 1st 2009 @ 7:57am | Report comment

what if football and the AFL can’t establish enough of a supporter base to detract fans from the rugby codes?

How much of it is the AFL needing to ‘poach’ rugby fans, and how much is it to service expat AFL state people as well as those already genuinely interested and involved in the code within QLD and northern NSW.

The ‘attracted from Rugby’ segment might just be the cream on the top.

Aust Footy is well established in southern QLD, and presently there are about 50 QLD players running around in the AFL. With GC17 now about to launch a whole new batch of local talent into the system. These kids aren’t all late age rugby converts. The system is well established, and footy DOES have a heritage dating back to the mid/late 1800s. It’s just that some rugby appologists like to pretend not to recognise that.

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Jets said | April 1st 2009 @ 8:03am | Report comment

It will be very interesting to see how things play out with these teams over the next 5 or so years. I was shocked when JON mentioned that the new Super 15 team could be based on the GC. I am sure he just said that to let local fans know that the ARU cared about them and to let the rival codes think it might be an option, not that they would be worried. Rugby has to go to Melbourne.

The Titans have done a great job and I am sure that if done properly that the other sports can do the same.

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Redb said | April 1st 2009 @ 8:17am | Report comment

Jets,

I agree, Ii think it’s very unlikely the new Super rugby licence will go to the Gold Coast, Melbourne seems the obvious choice.

Redb

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Sensible Kurt said | April 1st 2009 @ 8:47am | Report comment

There’s no doubt the GC is listed as a ‘buy’ in the minds of Australia’s sporting administrators. Adrian makes an interesting point re. the fact that the region will still only have a population of 600K or so in 2021 – such is the hype about the growth rate of this region that I must admit I imagined it bigger than that already.

I was listening to a radio interview with QLD Premier Anna Bligh yesterday and she made the interesting point (admittedly in characteristic pollie speak) that the GC is the place Australians come on holiday and that she expected plenty of AFL fans from Melbourne to make the trip up to watch their teams and then stay on for a break to enjoy the winter sun. Which was a pretty good point I thought and explains at least in part the enthusiasm of the govt to fund various sporting facilities and assist in the establishment of A-League, NRL, AFL teams etc.

As for whether or not the region can support all these teams I must admit I was impressed by the sporting diversity on display on the GC during a recent visit. Of course being QLD league still rules the roost, but there were plenty of kids about in AFL jumpers kicking sherrins in the parks, which is more than you can say for Western Sydney. As for soccer I assume there are enough Brits around to provide the bedrock of support for an A-League team as is the case in Melbourne and Sydney. It will be definitely be interesting to see how it plays out over the next few years.

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Cpaaa said | April 1st 2009 @ 9:00am | Report comment

michael c you forgot to mention the Gold Coast Giants, another failed RL side.

now, let me tell all you afl folk something…..congratulations. the Gold Coast Football Club.
after all the talk ,media debate, asking the fans for a name, stingrays, sharks etc.
the afl has chosen the most beautiful name it could for a club. as a football fan, i am jealous.
i hate fancy americanized niknames in a clubs title, this should be decided by fans.

on the other hand i dont want to hear anymore propaganda from afl folk that afl does not recieve any government funding.
60million of government support to one small city, funding for one sport/city in compared to 40million for a world cup bid that would involve the wholle nation/ world through sport and economics.

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Pippinu said | April 1st 2009 @ 9:00am | Report comment

It also has to be remembered that the GC A-League club will play predominantly over the Summer, and only needs a crowd of about 10,000 in the early years to sustain it (with some top ups from Palmer of course!)

I would think the AFL would be happy with getting crowds of 15,000 to 18,000 in the early years.

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Pippinu said | April 1st 2009 @ 9:04am | Report comment

Cpaa
was anyone truly concerned about the 40 mill?

It’s the other $1 billion that we have to worry about!!

Also, people should try and understand how the $60 mill has been assembled, who it’s going to directly, who owns and runs the facility, who benefits, etc before jumping to conclusions.

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Michael C said | April 1st 2009 @ 9:16am | Report comment

Cpaa -

now, check the apparant arrangements re the venue. The GC council will be allowing ownership to be signed over to the QLD govt.

Now, remind us how much the AFL are directly investing in the project – - with zero sum ownership of the venue.

This is not funding to increase the AFL asset base. It’s capex funding that provides the state of QLD with an ongoing asset and for the AFL perspective hopefully a generous ongoing stadium ‘deal’ for the primary tennant club.

ANd it’s certainly not an opex funding scheme like what the Fed Govt props up the FFA with.

The AFL don’t OWN many stadia. Can you rattle off how many the AFL own??

btw – the Geelong example illustrates just how good a financial wicket can be nurtured from a 25K boutique venue with a decent ‘deal’. Therefore, no concerns re the AFL high 30K general crowd averages. However, in recent years the overall crowds have hit record levels EVEN with matches at Carrara, Manuka and Darwin. Having Carrara matches regularly at a decent stadium will be no major issue for overall averages, and like the Brisbane Lions who pump most of any profits they generate back into local grass roots footy – this will be good for sports (footy/cricket) on the Gold Coast.

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