By James Mortimer -
June 24th 2009 @ 12:33am
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All Blacks results could be blessing in disguise
As Italy march into Christchurch, a New Zealand team that is under a surprising amount of pressure will revel in their final hit out before a challenging Tri Nations defence looms.
France have arrived in Australia issuing high praise in regard to the Wallaby team, with headlines abundant about how the Wallabies are either tougher or a better side than the All Blacks.
On the surface of this, it’s a pretty obvious remark.
Of course the Wallabies are a better team than the All Blacks as it stands.
While many like to croon that it is just an excuse, the reality is that New Zealand are without key men, players who have been instrumental in establishing the All Blacks overall dominance – World Cup withstanding – during Graham Henry’s reign.
What appears to have been proven is that the second tier of players, which Henry had painstakingly built up over 2005 and 2006, are not as good as the vital cogs of the All Blacks machine.
We might not have thought this over a year ago, but without Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, or even Rodney So’oialo, Ali Williams and Sitiveni Sivivatu, the All Blacks are vulnerable.
And while only a small collection of players should not make a tremendous difference to a nation that prides itself on its rugby depth, and funnelling of players through its academy systems, ironically, this damage may have been caused by the landmark year of 2008.
It was a year where Henry was all but forced to shelve any concepts of rotation and growing depth, because an early assault by the Springboks and Wallabies forced the All Blacks to roll out and permanently field the strongest test team available.
So while the results came, winning 13 out of 15 tests, their illustrious depth at Test level caught up to the rest of the world.
And now, one could argue that they sit behind both the Springboks and Wallabies in terms of Test player resources.
Hence the benefit of what is occurring now for All Black rugby.
The holy trinity of Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hanson have no choice but to bring in the new blood.
By the conclusion of the third Test match of the year, it is likely that less than seven players would have made their Test debuts. This is to go with a further seven players in the current Iveco (home series) squad that have less than ten Test match appearances.
In the middle of what has now become the almost all important World Cup cycle, this will bring benefits for New Zealand rugby, especially considering the success of the Under 20 team and the fact that they have their Junior All Black team operating.
The only admonition in this is that come 2011, the All Blacks may again wield too much depth, which for any coach can cause issues with uncertainty as to your best Test team.
The critical factor for the All Blacks is to ascertain their best players, and recycle and decide now.
It must be decided whether or not the current team, the soon to be returning first choice players, or even the Junior All Blacks (which contains five ex All Blacks) and their new Junior World Champions are the future of New Zealand rugby.
A classic example here is Joe Rokocoko, a Test veteran and world record holder for most Test tries in a calendar year (17 in 2003). Already Henry has remarked that he needs to find form now, for there are a host of talented three quarters in the proverbial selection queue.
Otherwise young players in their peak, could leave New Zealand for other opportunities.
As for their Tri Nations opponents, while they may appear stronger now, much depends on what happens in the next month.
For the Springboks, they are playing in what could be considered the last great challenge for many of their players. Win or lose against the British and Irish Lions, will they view the Tri Nations as an inferior contest?
Or will it be the last year for the Springbok elder statesmen who will look to cap a Lions series with a title that defines Southern Hemisphere supremacy?
As for the Wallabies, they swap opponents with the All Blacks, and no doubt comparisons between the Bledisloe opponents will abound after the matches.
In this, Australia probably has a bit more to lose.
If they cannot beat the French, then the apparently immense progress the 2009 Wallabies have made will take a backward step.
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Sam Taulelei said | June 24th 2009 @ 7:01am | Report comment
“the second tier of players, which Henry had painstakingly built up over 2005 and 2006, are not as good as the vital cogs of the All Blacks machine.”
Neemia Tialata, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Ali Williams, Jerome Kaino, Jimmy Cowan, Piri Weepu, Brendan Leonard, Luke McAlister, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Joe Rocokoko and Mils Muliaina are the only players in the current squad that have featured in the All Blacks from 2005-07. Of those only Cowan, Kaino and Nonu wouldn’t have been considered regular starting All Blacks during that period. It has been the loss of those second tier of players to retirement and overseas clubs rather than their lack of quality that has stood out. I agree that Henry had little option last year than to play his strongest test team and OJ has mentioned that Henry chose to neglect the opportunity for future player development on last years Grand Slam tour that could have alleviated the injury problems affecting the team so far this year.
As for the benefit of what is occurring now for All Black rugby, that is premature speculation and won’t be revealed until the Tri Nations begins as well as the end of year tour and next season. The danger is that the core of experienced players have already peaked and won’t improve any further. Those fringe players who through injury are exposed to test rugby sooner than expected (if at all) have a steep learning curve ahead of them, and only some of them will make the grade as you have mentioned.
Every successful NZ side has always been reliant upon a small group of world class players that formed its foundation and their retirement results in a dip in form for the next few years. The retirement of Sean Fitzpatrick, Zinzan Brooke and the dropping of Frank Bunce and loss of form by Andrew Mehrtens and Carlos Spencer in 1997/98 had a profound affect on the All Blacks resulting in our worst ever season that took 5 years to overcome with a new group of players.
Perhaps the Wallabies under Deans and with a change of players are a team that could track a similar path back to ascendancy this season after 5 years without any success.
The Boks are looking the most impressive side to date even with their faltering finish against the Lions last weekend. The last two Lions tours seem to coincide with or inspire the host nation to achieving success in the Super rugby and Tri Nations competitions – 2001 was the Brumbies and Wallabies year, 2005 the Crusaders and All Blacks, 2009 the Bulls and ????
It’s interesting how the public and media on both sides of the Tasman have differing viewpoints with their respective matches against France and Italy this weekend. For the Wallabies this is their first real test of the season and their performance will be a better gauge of their development as well as building confidence ahead of the Tri Nations and for the All Blacks the expectation that a rout against Italy will do the same for them after two tough tests against the French. One thing is for sure the loss against the French will not be the only loss they suffer this year – so will a demanding NZ public acknowledge and accept the challenging circumstances this season or will they simply demand Henry’s head on a platter and bemoan the loss of Robbie Deans. This is a rhetorical question – the answer is obvious isn’t it.
ohtani's jacket, said | June 24th 2009 @ 9:15am | Report comment
One thing I’ll say for Henry & Co. is that they learn from their mistakes.
I was pleased with the forward effort, particlarly the way guys like Mealamu and Thorn stood up in the absence of Mcaw, So’oialo and Williams. The loose forward trio of Kaino, Latimer and Read absolutely deserve another run this weekend and I think both Ross and Evans did enough to stay in the picture.
The conditions were too bad to judge the backs, but apart from Messam, I think we’ve done a better job with the forwards than the Wallabies. Tighthead is still an issue. It seems that Afoa and Tialata will be battling it out for that spot. I thought Tialata lifted his game in the second Test, but a lot of people were conned into thinking the scrums were an issue.