Bombers beat Saints? It’s a funny old season
Roar Guru By David Wiseman, 17 Aug 2009 David Wiseman is a Roar Guru
- Tagged:
- AFL, Geelong Cats, St Kilda Saints
Essendon players celebrate during the AFL Round 20 match between the Essendon Bombers and the St Kilda Saints at the Docklands Stadium. Slattery Images
We’ve had the fantastic St Kilda and Geelong, who have looked amazing, and apart from the match involving the two of them, have 35 wins from 38 matches between them in 2009. Then there is the chance that the eighth team in the finals could be there with as few as ten wins.
Seemingly none of Port Adelaide, Sydney or Hawthorn want to be there, leaving Essendon as the only one who wants it.
Hawthorn have lost its last four and seven of its last nine, but yet somehow are still in the running.
If the Hawks win this week, and all of Sydney (away to Collingwood), Port (away to Brisbane)and Essendon (away to Fremantle) lose, in Round 22, it will be playing Essendon for the final spot in the eight.
Crazy!
19-1
St Kilda and Essendon produced one hell of a match. It may have even have surpassed the stunning Geelong – St Kilda game.
Jobe Watson was sensational as he led the Bombers to victory, despite the Saints rallying from seven goals down late in the third term.
The loss could be a blessing in disguise for the Saints as they are now free of the pressures of going through the season undefeated. With North Melbourne and Melbourne in the final two weeks, the Saints should enter the finals with all guns firing.
Dignity in Defeat
It has been a funny two weeks for the Swans. They have played the Saints and Cats in consecutive weeks and gone down by a collective six points. Rumors of their death may well be exaggerated and they may find themselves back in an upwards swing as early as next year.
The return of some injured players, plus the infusion of some fresh blood, could see the Swans back up there. The retirement of Barry Hall could be the best thing that happened to the Swans in 2009.
The problem for them is the Catch-22 they tend to find themselves in – in that they play their best football when they have been completely written off
Blues return to glory days
Carlton is back in the finals and could finish the season as high as fourth. It currently occupies fifth position, and with home games against Melbourne and Adelaide to come, should enter the finals full of confidence.
The big question mark will be their ability to make the transition to finals football and the pressures that come with it.
It has been eight years since they were last in the finals. Now Richmond alone has the longest finals drought.
Go West
There seems to be no turning back on the Greater Western Sydney Team. The point of no return has been passed.
It seems odd that there will be two extra teams in the competition, when there are already too many teams in Melbourne.
The draw is compromised with 16 teams, and who knows how it would work with 18 teams. It would have to be some sort of conference system, wouldn’t it?
Recommend this story.
- Explore:
- AFL, Geelong Cats, St Kilda Saints
August 17th 2009 @ 8:16am
Redb said | August 17th 2009 @ 8:16am | Report comment
2nd Quarter was the best I’ve seen the Dons play this year – fantastic contest for the ball, we were in and under far more than the Saints. Jobe Watson is heading into James Hird territory.
Great win Dons!
Redb
August 17th 2009 @ 8:25am
Justin said | August 17th 2009 @ 8:25am | Report comment
Easy Red. One of Jimmys strengths was his superb use of the ball by foot, Jobe at present is below the average AFL standard. Different style, JW just seems to find it and is brilliant below the knees but I fear he will not prove his kicking much unless he does some serious work. Terrific player though with plenty of ticker…
August 17th 2009 @ 8:30am
Redb said | August 17th 2009 @ 8:30am | Report comment
Agreed, his kicking let’s him down, but his endeavour, courage and willingness to attempt the impossible are James Hird all over.
James Hird was the man the coach turned to turn to win you the game, put him on the ball in the centre of the ground and inevitably he would come up with the ball. Jobe watson’s game yesty was in that realm.
Injuries will hurt us and really when Ryder went off we were five goals up and this swung the momentum back to St Kilda, not to mention Watson cramping late in the game.
What a win, still grinning.
Redb
August 17th 2009 @ 8:55am
Justin said | August 17th 2009 @ 8:55am | Report comment
Yep Im grinning too, hopefully the injuries aren’t too bad. With Port in Brisbane this week I think a win at Subi will be enough to claim 8th. But we are terrible on the road…
August 17th 2009 @ 9:11am
Redb said | August 17th 2009 @ 9:11am | Report comment
Media reports suggest Fletcher, Ryder and Dempsey probably 2 weeks.
I think if we bring the same intensity to the Freo game who lets face it have bugger all to fight for we should win. We’ll just have to concede the taps out of the ruck as Bell-Chambers is no match for Sandilands, but our midfield should be good enough to get the ball anyway.
The Lions should be able to do enough to beat Port , Swans have Collingwood so cant see them winning, but the Hawks have Richmond which is definitely winnable for them.
Could be a Round 22 blockbuster at the G for us and the Hawks to decide 8th.
Go Dons!
Redb
August 17th 2009 @ 11:21am
Art Sapphire said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:21am | Report comment
Redb – we beat Freo next week and Port loses to the Lions and we have 8th place all sown up.
No blockbuster at the G to decide 8th. Infact, we could go into that game against the Hawks resting a few players and get ready for a potential showdown against the Blues in the first week of the finals. The bluebaggers hate playing us. The chance to heap more misery on them this year will be priceless!!
So c’mon Dons do the job at Subiaco.
August 17th 2009 @ 11:47am
Redb said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:47am | Report comment
yeah how big would an elimination final against the Blues be! ‘G’ would be a rockin’.
Daydreams begin…………scores are level, 20 seconds to go, Fevola drops a sitter, scooped up by Hurley, kicks straight down the guts to Lovett who runs into 50 and goals with 2 secs on the clock, crowd goes wild, Blues fans have no chance to leave early and must endure the Bomber song burnt into their brains forever!
Go Dons!
Redb
August 17th 2009 @ 9:25am
Rod said | August 17th 2009 @ 9:25am | Report comment
Jobe reminds me more of Joe Misiti in his heyday (only better), rather than Jimmy Hird. Great in and under ball winner and a terrific reader of play. With Angus Monfries playing more like Mark Mercuri every day things are looking more and more like the “good old days”. There will never be another Jimmy, but two players who have some of his attributes are Rider and Wunderlich – both competent all over the ground, and highly skilled play readers. Rider always seems to have that extra bit of time , too, just like Jimmy.
August 17th 2009 @ 11:48am
Redb said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:48am | Report comment
Atkinson showed a bit of Sean Wellman methinks running off the back-line as well.
cheers
Redb
August 17th 2009 @ 8:48am
LK said | August 17th 2009 @ 8:48am | Report comment
David,
Sorry to be a pedant but Swans played Tigers last week – Micky O’s 300th. Good signs for the Swans though.
LK
August 17th 2009 @ 7:03pm
David Wiseman said | August 17th 2009 @ 7:03pm | Report comment
You are 100% right. That game slipped my mind. Completely forgot about the forgettable Tigers. They have degenerated into nothing more than a rabble and again have found themselves as the last team standing in the musical chair game of trying to find a coach. Richo is a great player but there is no logical reason why he should be coming back next year. It is a decision based on sentimentality and with him needing to play 18 games next year to reach 300 games, I don’t think he is going to make it.
August 17th 2009 @ 10:58am
Brett McKay said | August 17th 2009 @ 10:58am | Report comment
David, you would think some kind of conference system would have to come in for the 18 team comp. You’d think. But the draw is also compromised by teams specifiying who they want to play, and as discussed last week on The Roar, even WHERE they play. Surely the AFL has to be the sole decider of who plays who and where??
August 17th 2009 @ 11:15am
Redb said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:15am | Report comment
Brett,
The draw is sgetting messy and 18 teams will create a difficult proposition for the AFL when fixturing. I’m not a massive fan of confererences as they inevitably rob fans of rivalries and create other problems. eg: the New GC and WS teams will need to play Coll, Ess and Carl to get crowds and interest in the early days as these clubs have fans all over OZ. GC17 for example will prove a great tourist drawcard for the Gold Coast.
No matter how you divvy up the conferences it is often a worse situation that the current system.
The AFL is the sole decider of who plays and where, the clubs merely put in a wishlist.
BT put forward a suggestion on Fox yesterday that with 18 teams they play each other at least once then the teams outside of the 8 drop away and you play finals. I think it dumb from a market share perspective, the AFL gets crowds and TV ratings for those 4 weeks, there are sides outsdie the 8 who can still make it (Ess, Haw, Port and Syd after R18) and it’s a free kick for the other codes to occupy the already crowded space.
I suggest play all 18 teams at least then drop off the bottom 6 teams, leaving 12 teams to compete in a few rounds before finalising the 8 or 10. Maybe some form of repocharge /wild card games, etc. You might lose a round or two.
Redb
August 17th 2009 @ 11:25am
Brett McKay said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:25am | Report comment
Red, the only issue with that of course will be that clubs will not be wanting to “drop off” any earlier than the start of the finals – you’d effectively end up with clubs not playing by mid-August, and I can’t imagine Eddie letting the other CEO’s agree to that.
It’s perhaps not as simple as what Pip and I have suggested (which begs the question, ‘why not?’), but at least some kind of conference system is easily explained and can be seen to be following process. Who really knows how the AFL (or the NRL for that matter) comes up with its draw currently??
August 17th 2009 @ 11:09am
Pippinu said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:09am | Report comment
If there is to be a conference system, it will be notional only (rather than the US type).
If the AFL sticks with 22 rounds, there is a very neat formula, everyone split into 3 notional conferences ( six a apiece).
Everyone playes each other once, and you play everyone in your conference twice, that’s 17 plus 5 games = 22.
It’s far too neat and tidy for the AFL to ignore.
Problem:
The 4 WA/SA teams are logically placed in one conference; and the 4 Northern teams in another, but that means four Victorian teams need to join them (leaving a 3rd conference, probably of the six highest drawing Victorian teams).
This may end up being less of an issue if, for example, teams like the Bullies and Dees continue playing games in other markets – they would naturally slip into those conferences.
Take the Bullies for examply, looking to play games in Darwin, which traditionally is closely linked to the SANFL – so there would be a certain logic to the Bullies ending up in the WA/SA conference (by the way, I repeat, these conferences are notional only – they wouldn’t be identified by name).
There may even be a scenario emerge whereby the Western Bulldogs develops close links to Central Districts, maybe playing a home game in Adelaide, almost becoming a 3rd SA club.
August 17th 2009 @ 11:19am
Brett McKay said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:19am | Report comment
Pip, that’s exactly the model I used in an earlier article this year, in which I shortend the NRL season by a week, moved the SOO games to three stand-alone Sundays, and even allowed for expansion to 18 teams.
It’s simple: 16 teams split into two pools of eight, plays everyone once and everyone in their pool once again. 15 + 7 is a 22 round comp.
18 teams split into three pools of six as you’ve said, for a 17 + 5 breakup. Another obvious problem will be that everyone will want to be in the same pool as Collingwood or Essendon, and demand a second game at the MCG. Perhaps gate-sharing is one way to end the clubs demanding who they play and where?
Either way, Andrew Demitriou’s a smart guy, these sorts of issues are exactly why he gets paid the big bucks…
August 17th 2009 @ 6:59pm
David Wiseman said | August 17th 2009 @ 6:59pm | Report comment
Brett – I really have no idea what they will do. Will they reseed the conferences every couple of years? What if there was two divisions of 9 and this allowed for promotion/relegation? The bottom line is that whatever they do, over time, teams are not going to play each other and that isn’t cool. In a sport like baseball (notwithstanding interleague play) you understand why an American League team hasn’t played a National League one and that’s fine. And in the Premier League, the fans of Norwich or Luton appreciate why they no longer play Manchester United or Liverpool but in AFL the competition relies on strong club rivalries.
They are also up against it because the Gold Coast and GWS sides have no history or tradition therefore no rivalry with any other team. This will come but in the early stages it will be tough.
August 17th 2009 @ 7:11pm
Brett McKay said | August 17th 2009 @ 7:11pm | Report comment
David, see my comment above Andrew Demitriou and big bucks!!
To answer your first question, there would have to be some kind of reseeding, and probably each year. I can’t confirm this with any certainty after the event, but when I wrote the NRL draw artcile I mentioned above, I’m sure I came across the rough system the NRL use each year to do its draw, and from memory the two pools of 8 are determined by finishing position the previous year, and essentially split down odds and evens. At least that way both pools are going to be reasonably even.
The only way to solve the problem properly is like you say, for everyone to play everyone, but then the choice is whether we want a 15/17 or 30/34 week regular season (obviously that’s for 16 or 18 teams). I don’t think either work, and so I guess the conference system is the only way to go..
August 17th 2009 @ 11:22am
Pippinu said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:22am | Report comment
Brett
I was sure I had pinched the concept off someone on the Roar – it must have been you!!
Sorry for not giving credit!!
August 17th 2009 @ 11:31am
Brett McKay said | August 17th 2009 @ 11:31am | Report comment
I’m sure I wasn’t the first to think of it Pip!! Maybe just the first to put it in words
August 17th 2009 @ 1:27pm
Pippinu said | August 17th 2009 @ 1:27pm | Report comment
Here’s the last 30 seconds of the Ess v St Kilda game, which is pretty much indicative of the last 15 minutes, St Kilda pushing, and Essendon struggling to hold them back.
That Riewoldt mark was in a nest of Essendon defenders who should have done better – but credit to Riewoldt he went after it and marked it, utimately missing what was very kickable.
August 17th 2009 @ 1:54pm
Redb said | August 17th 2009 @ 1:54pm | Report comment
Pip,
The forward talls of Reiwoldt and Kosi out marked us all day. Kosi took some great contested marks bugger him.
It was significant that when Ryder got injured and Watson’s influence waned with cramps, they got the ball out of the centre and the better forward sructure gave them a real target whilst our defence left short by the absence of Fletcher struggled against their pressure which has been good all year.
The message- if St Kilda get the ball out of the centre their forwards will eat it alive, they can take a mark on the lead and be better than 50% in a contested marking situation which means you can bomb it forward if your a St Kilda midfielder. Geelong have a better midfield but their book ends are crumbling through injury and form.
Collingwood are capable of matching the intensity required at the ball, just not sure their midfield is A class.
Redb
August 17th 2009 @ 2:14pm
Pippinu said | August 17th 2009 @ 2:14pm | Report comment
I saw Kosi take a really strong grab in the last quarter – sandwiched between two Bombers – the ball stuck like glue.
The Riewoldt grab was a bit different – someone needed to go up with him to make a bit of a contest of it, but at a crucial point in the game, he’s taken it a bit too comfortably (on the chest no less!) – but those three bombers look like they’re ready to keel over from exhaustion.
August 17th 2009 @ 2:15pm
Pippinu said | August 17th 2009 @ 2:15pm | Report comment
Everything else you’ve written looks spot on.
August 17th 2009 @ 1:31pm
Pippinu said | August 17th 2009 @ 1:31pm | Report comment
Folks, how about this goal.
Aker, left foot, deep in the left pocket, threads it on the run with virtually zero goal mouth to aim for.
Seals the deal for the bullies when the game was still there to be won.
August 17th 2009 @ 2:39pm
Michael C said | August 17th 2009 @ 2:39pm | Report comment
“Special”
August 17th 2009 @ 3:22pm
Pippinu said | August 17th 2009 @ 3:22pm | Report comment
thanks Bruce!!