AFL finals follow the form guide

Roar Guru

By David Wiseman, 7 Sep 2009 David Wiseman is a Roar Guru

Tagged:: AFL, AFL finals, Brisbane Lions, Daniel Rich, Essendon Bombers, Geelong Cats, St Kilda Saints, Western Bulldogs

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Adam Schneider and Andrew McQualter of St Kilda Saints celebrate a goal during their AFL 1st Qualifying Final victory over Collingwood Magpies

When people look back at the first week of the 2009 Finals, they will see it going straight according to the form guide, but it wouldn’t have been like that had Carlton held their nerve.

Neither the Bulldogs or Magpies could cause the upset which means they should simply swap partners come the third week of the finals. The Geelong – St Kilda Grand Final is basically a done deal.

Eight is Enough

You can only blame injuries and suspensions so much. The truth of the matter is that the Bombers were one of the worst finals sides in recent memory.

To lose by 96 points was painful as it was embarrassing. Who knows where the Bombers go to from here? They began the decade as the competition’s most dominant side and to end it like this would be galling for most Essendon supporters.

As for the AFL, they will be having concerns about introducing a finals system which has more than eight teams. Less definitely is more.

Riches of Brisbane

What is more significant than the Lions coming back to defeat the Blues was how good Daniel Rich is going to be. He may not wear the Number 3, but no doubt he is the heir apparent to Michael Voss.

He was the year’s first Rising Star nominee and won the award unanimously. Against the Blues he was stellar and, while the Lions aren’t going to win the flag this year, they have hit the jackpot with Rich.

If only Richmond had the draft pick before the Lions instead of after – then he would join great players the likes of Matthew Pavlich and Buddy Franklin who weren’t deemed good enough by the Tigers.

Dogs need to Find Their Bark

They always seem to be there and thereabouts without being able to take that leap. 1961 was the last time the Bulldogs were in a Grand Final. No doubt they have made incredible strides as a club, but what is it all worth it unless one year they make a splash in September?

After making successive preliminary finals in 1997-98, it was 10 years until they were back in the final four. Now or never is a pretty apt description of their situation as it has been for the last 48 years.

Looking Ahead

The Brisbane Lions will be brought down to earth by the Western Bulldogs. Adelaide began their season against Collingwood and will end it against the Magpies and in the process will bring about another all-Victorian final four.

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The Crowd Says (32) | Page 1 of Comments

Pippinu said | September 7th 2009 @ 8:00am | Report comment

Agree with sentiments on the bullies and Daniel Rich.

Collingwood has the tougher game.

The Bullies should be able to beat Brisbane in Melbourne, but then cop a red hot St Kilda the following week.

Top two into the grand final the most likely scenario.

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Tifosi said | September 7th 2009 @ 9:11am | Report comment

Nothing is ever a done deal.

Look at last years GF

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Mattay said | September 7th 2009 @ 9:13am | Report comment

I give Collingwood absolutely no chance against Adelaide.

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- Redb said | September 7th 2009 @ 9:48am | Report comment
  
  Neither do I.
  
  Adelaide are well trained, make space and have a lethal forward set up. They’re in top form.
  
  Redb
  
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  - Mattay said | September 7th 2009 @ 11:26am | Report comment
    
    What I like about the Crows this year is that, unlike previous finals campaigns, they appear to be getting better each week. In previous years, especially when their top 4 spot was assured prior to round 22, Neill Craig would often get too clever and have the players either drop off or raise the intensity leading up to finals, depending on the scientific viewpoint for optimal finals performance (TM) at the time.
    
    That’s one criticism I’ve had of Craig. He over-thinks too much and sometimes the bleeding obvious is ignored.
    
    This year, I think they’re just going out trying to win each game as it comes, and must now be seen as probably THE form team still left in the comp.
    
    However, expect that to mean nought 0:01 minutes into Saturday night’s match.
    
    Actually, a lot of the improvement in the Crows I would put down to Todd Viney. Future AFL head coach, of that there is no doubt. When the next coaching merry-go-round takes place, expect his name to be top of many clubs’ wishlist.
    
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    - Redb said | September 7th 2009 @ 11:39am | Report comment
      
      I think they’re good enough to beat Collingwood and perhaps Geelong in what will be a classic preliminary final.
      
      I’ve never seen the zone work as well as it did on Friday night for the Crows even against my under-manned Bombers, It was a little scary to see.
      
      The forward set up with Tippett, the Porpoise, Dangerfield and Burton are probably the number one forward line in the AFL. When the Crows get the ball and run near 50, they race off like panthers their opponent streaming out the back of them with no hope.
      
      St Kilda are good enough to beat them IMO. But in 2010 watch out.
      
      Redb
      
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Redb said | September 7th 2009 @ 9:25am | Report comment

“You can only blame injuries and suspensions so much.”

Yeah I think you can attribute much of the magnitude of the loss of key players to injury and suspension. No ruck, no clearances, classy forward line for Adelaide.

I sat with 50,000 rabid Crows fan on Friday night and felt the pain and embarassment of a poor performance but on reflection the year has seen a major improvement in Essendon’s fortunes.

Essendon went from 13th to 8th in 2009. Importantly we have 3 emerging players that the club will build its future around in Ryder, Watson and Hurley. Good strides.

Go Dons!

Tipping a St Kilda v Adelaide Grand Final, Saints to win for the first time in 43 years.

Redb

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Art Sapphire said | September 7th 2009 @ 9:48am | Report comment

Give me a break David.

The Bombers went from getting walloped in the 1983 GF to winning the next 2. You see, getting thrashed in a final is no big deal.

Ludicrously, according to you – “They began the decade as the competition’s most dominant side and to end it like this would be galling for most Essendon supporters”

The AFL has engineered it that no side ever stays dominant. Except ofcourse when a new side comes in and they rig it as much as possible to give the new teams a chance of success. E.G Brisbane Lions salary concesions and now the new GC17. Where have you been for the last 10 years David.

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Pippinu said | September 7th 2009 @ 9:59am | Report comment

In the case of the Lions, it has to be recalled that they won the wooden spoon in 1998 (the second year of the Fitzroy merger, which didn’t go all too smoothly).

In the four years running that Brisbane made the grand final, 2001 to 2004, at no stage did they finish first, nor were any of their seasons comparable to Carlton of 1995, Essendon of 2000, St Kilda this year, or even Geelong in their last three seasons.

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- Redb said | September 7th 2009 @ 10:06am | Report comment
  
  How good was that comeback by the lions. Bradshaw’s final goal from the boundary unbeleiveable.
  
  Redb
  
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Art Sapphire said | September 7th 2009 @ 10:15am | Report comment

Hey David – how about a piece on Judd’s despicable act on Saturday night.

This from the AFL’s poster boy and ornament to the game

”Look, I was pushing my thumb into the pressure point behind your ear,” he said yesterday.

”I haven’t actually seen it on footage, but I assume my hands are close to his eyes. I don’t think the pressure point was really hurting him, but it was a dumb thing to do.”

The Blues’ leader said there was no contact with Rischitelli’s eyes. ”You’d have to poke someone really hard in the eye … to get up, you’d be really blinking. I assume he wasn’t doing that.

”Hopefully we get on with it and we move on to round one. I’d prefer it didn’t happen, but it has. We’ll deal with that if we have to.”

WTF is Judd trying to do. What a low act!!

It will be interesting to see how this plays out and the AFL manages this.

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- Redb said | September 7th 2009 @ 10:21am | Report comment
  
  dumb dumb dumb. Judd is normally one player who keeps control despite all the tagging pressure he cops.
  
  Really bizarre and he should get a penalty of some sort, what if the pressure point caused a spasm or a fit?
  
  Total contrast to the image of Jono Brown – what a footballer.
  
  Redb
  
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  - Art Sapphire said | September 7th 2009 @ 10:30am | Report comment
    
    Very strange. Maybe Judd has been watching too many martial arts films and thought he was Bruce Lee.
    
    I would expect the AFL to give him at least 2 weeks anything less will be seen as a cop out.
    
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    - Redb said | September 7th 2009 @ 11:29am | Report comment
      
      Judd has dropped a peg or two IMO as a result.
      
      I beleive its not the first time he had tried his finger conjuring tactic………you will get sleepier and sleepier…you will pass the ball to Juddster…
      
      He has now admitted intent has to get weeks you would think. Ohh I wasnt eye gouging just trying to paralyse the poor bloke. Match Review Panel says “errr Ok no worries thanks Juddy and how is Kevin07?”
      
      Carlton, stinking rotten Carlton have infected this once great footballer on the field. Hope he doesnt digress off it and slaps Rebecca Twigley around, there’ll be a riot. Hands off Juddy shes mine
      
      Redb
      
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      - Michael C said | September 7th 2009 @ 1:23pm | Report comment
        
        You may recall the Victorian Police tried this tactic some years back – re ‘crowd control’ at the World Economic Forum – and got in hot water over it with compensation payouts for excessive force.
        
        On that precident, Judd should go for several weeks for ‘excessively forceful’ contact to the head???
        
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    - BigAl said | September 7th 2009 @ 2:15pm | Report comment
      
      Judd was accussed of ‘eye gouging’ Cambell Brown of Hawthorn in a game in Tassie. a year or so back.
      
      Nothing official came of it – I think the AFL feels he’s made of golden teflon !
      
      To this day it amazes me that I have not heard him being asked or answering anything about the West Coast drug saga.
      Not suggesting that he was at all involved but he was the captain at the time and you would expect some public questioning – as Wordfold had to endure.
      
      Mind you Worsfold’s responses were pretty lame and un-illuminating
      
      Reply
- True Tah said | September 7th 2009 @ 10:36am | Report comment
  
  Maybe the Carlton Blues employed Schalk Burger to give them some mongrel!
  
  In rugby, Burger was crucified for what he did, and rightly so.
  
  In Australian football Judd gets away with nothing!!
  
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Michael C said | September 7th 2009 @ 10:18am | Report comment

One thing that is clear – is where the top 3 sides were able to take the foot off the pedal a tad in the latter stages of the H&A season in preparation to peak during the finals.
StKilda and Geelong, all things going well are on the up now. So long as they can hold their playing stocks together. It was a luxury to ease into September. And now to have a week off – that’s golden. One can’t help but wonder if the only way to topple either was going to be via a 1st round loss.

The Doggies, may well have peaked in the last couple of weeks, as they came under pressure to ensure a top 4 and certainly top 3 position. On Saturday, the Doggies start was shocking, and their finish was off target when the pressure was greatest – Brad Johnson actually has a very, very shakey history of important set shot kicks…..he’s like a soccer penalty spot chocker.

The Pies, would’ve been disappointed with Sunday, the loss of Pendlebury is a major one, and the insertion of Rocca shows a fraction of panic – given the form or lack there of from Jack Anthony.
The Crows are a marvellous x-factor side right now – - far from the Craig Automatons of years gone by. The Crows may well be just the right combination at the right time. Collingwood will be very, very nervous. They have to return to the drawing board to a degree this week – the Crows don’t.

The Lions have won the Grand Final – all else is a bonus – obviously though, their forward line can stretch the doggies. Anything can happen in a sudden death final.

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Art Sapphire said | September 7th 2009 @ 11:48am | Report comment

Gary Ablett please take note and learn from Sensei Juddster.

This is the best way to deal with players who are trying to put you off your game.

It will not only make your opponent sleepy but give them blurred vision as well.

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Pippinu said | September 7th 2009 @ 1:24pm | Report comment

I just read that Brisbane’s last quarter come back was the largest finals last quarter come back in VFL/AFL history.

But more interesting, Tagger says in his observations for the weekend:
1. just when you thought it wasn’t possible for an Australian Pm to put on a more cringe-worthy performance at a sporting event…

I tell you what, the average AFL fan can sniff out someone putting it on a mile off.

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