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Garry Lyon had an interesting article in The Age over the weekend in which he called for AFL clubs to be proactive in dealing with the GWS Giants. His proposal was that St Kilda should trade Brendon Goddard in return for two first-round draft picks and two of the four 17 year-olds GWS must trade to other clubs.
A lower-profile Saint would probably need to be thrown in to balance the deal, Lyon wrote, but the outcome would greatly benefit a club that would appear to have moved beyond its premiership window.
Not only would such a deal clearly mark the beginning of a rebuild, the Saints would get some of the country’s best youngsters without having to slide all the way down the ladder. In fact, arguably not even a wooden spoon in a normal draft year would provide such a reward.
Goddard is one of the stars of the competition. His form may have slumped this season, but he’s not the only St Kilda star we can say that about in 2011.
His monster performances in both of the grand finals last year – including that mark – were an indication of his ability to stand up on the big stage and, crucially for GWS, inspire an audience.
He would be a fantastic pick as the Giants’ marquee man, or even co-marquee man – should Scott Pendlebury move up after his suspiciously short one-year deal at Collingwood is up at the end of next season.
Basically, there’s no question that a Goddard deal works on the GWS end. The only quibble would be what to give up for him.
On St Kilda’s end, the club needs to ask one simple question: is he going to be part of our next premiership side?
The list managers at Hawthorn asked this question of every single member of their list before launching the rebuild that netted them the 2008 premiership. If the Saints are of the opinion their window is shut – Ross Lyon debuting eight players already this year indicates they are – then they must do the same.
When asking that question of Goddard, there are two factors, his age (26) and how long a rebuild is going to take (a bit more complicated).
Given the Saints’ drafting in recent years hasn’t been overly impressive and many picks have been used to acquire experienced players, the idea of a fast rebuild – at least without some kind of outside influx of young talent – would appear farfetched. You wouldn’t say it’s impossible, but the brutal truth is that it’s hard to see them rebuilding quickly enough to be contenders while Goddard is still in his absolute prime.
Looking at it this way, the deal seems to work on St Kilda’s end after all. At least that’s if they are prepared to make a tough call.
Of course, there’s another factor that needs to be considered in all of this, and that’s Goddard himself. He had some very interesting things to say on Triple M over the weekend.
“For me personally, I’m as loyal as they come but at some stage players are going to start thinking about their future and life after football is a lot longer than life in it,” he said. “I believe I’ve given everything I can to this footy club and they’ve given back to me as well.”
At the very least it showed he is open to the idea of switching clubs.
Goddard is contracted at St Kilda for next season, meaning GWS can’t do an Ablett-style signing at the end of this year. However, the Giants have a two-year window for such deals and may nab him a year later. Under these circumstances, the Saints would receive the same compensation Geelong received for losing Gary Ablett.
So basically, if St Kilda don’t act this year with a trade, they might lose him anyway a year later and get less in return.
On the flipside, though, this year they have the negotiating power to offer GWS their man a year early – surely a tempting prospect given the size of some of Gold Coast’s losses this year.
It’s a tough call, no question. But maybe it’s one that just needs to be made.