In England, they call it ‘bouncebackability’. Last year, West Coast had it in spades, going from bottom in 2010 to within one game of an AFL Grand Final date with a wounded Collingwood.
The Eagles’ meteoric rise to relevance just 12 months after their worst ever season was fairytale stuff, and will no doubt serve as an external source of motivation for other sides coming off bad runs.
Is there a blueprint? Probably not. West Coast benefitted from the return to full fitness of veterans Darren Glass, Daniel Kerr and Dean Cox, who all played at something resembling their best following battles with injury. In that sense, they weren’t a bolt from the blue – a fallen giant just got up and regrouped.
But generally there’s a surprise packet every year. There’s a neat little footy factoid that always does the rounds in pre-season – a team from outside the eight has broken into the top four every season since the AFL expanded to 15 teams with Freo’s 1995 introduction.
It’ll probably happen again this campaign – but is anyone capable of doing it to the extent that the Eagles did?
Take a look at last year’s bottom four and you’ll find three teams that are going through a rebuilding phase. In the case of the Gold Coast Suns, you can drop the ‘re-‘ prefix because they’re laying foundations for the very first time.
We’ve had a good opportunity to look at all of them in the NAB Cup, and while pre-season form is by no means a rock-solid barometer of home and away performance, these sides took the competition seriously.
So let’s gaze into the crystal ball, then. Who is most capable of pulling a West Coast in 2012?
Gold Coast: The most unlikely candidate. Prior to their narrow loss to Sydney on the weekend, even Guy McKenna was worried about how they were fairing this pre-season.
The Suns have certainly strengthened their list in two ways – first, their army of teenagers is a year older and a year wiser, but also the recruitment of key defender Matthew Warnock should help spread the workload down back and allow Nathan Bock more opportunities up forward.
But still, they look set to suffer a case of the second-year blues.
They remain unable to run out a full game of football and even accounting for the effortless brilliance of captain Gary Ablett, the nucleus of the side is not yet seasoned enough at AFL level. Only by some sort of mythical intervention can Gold Coast hope to escape the bottom four.
Port Adelaide: It couldn’t possibly get worse than 2011 for Port, could it? Their NAB Cup form has certainly caught a few people by surprise, and like the Suns, there are a good bunch of young players at Alberton – the difference is that this crop are a little closer to hitting their straps.
Much will hinge on newly-minted cult hero John Butcher, and the Power must be congratulated for hanging onto him when plenty of Victorian clubs were sniffing around for his services.
The electric spearhead will not only kick plenty of goals, but if you recall back to late last year when he starred against the Western Bulldogs and Essendon in just his second and third games, he’s the kind of player who can lift his teammates a notch or two as well.
That’s crucial for Port Adelaide – their mental toughness, or lack thereof, saw them become the laughing stock of the AFL last year. And while they probably won’t make any giant steps in 2012, they’re at least heading in the right direction.
Brisbane: Colour me unconvinced by the Lions. There’s no doubt there are some players coming through – Rich, Karnezis, Polec, Rockliff and Redden just to name a few.
And yes, Simon Black remains a class act, Ben Hudson is a reasonable pick-up for a short term ruck solution, Jonathan Brown is the closest thing the AFL has to Chuck Norris and Daniel Merrett is the type of player Michael Voss can build a defence around.
Will they improve? Almost certainly – the only way for them, along with the Suns and the Power, is up. But how quickly will they get there? Faster than the two sides that finished below them? I’m not so sure.
There is a lot to like about the Lions but last year they showed the same mental yips and inexperience that Gold Coast and Port did, and with less upside. They’ll struggle again in 2012 – which means Voss has a fight on his hands to keep his job.
Adelaide: The Crows’ first piece of silverware since they claimed the McClelland Trophy in 2005 has their fans pretty excited heading into this season. They’ve got some right to be.
Even considering the loss of Phil Davis to the Giants, Adelaide has plenty of talented up-and-comers and it looks as if everything is ticking along nicely for new coach Brenton Sanderson. The Ricciuto-McLeod-Goodwin-Edwards era feels like a lifetime ago.
By batting away GWS’ interest in Taylor Walker they kept their twin tower combination up forward in tact, with Kurt Tippett also turning down an offer to head back to his native Gold Coast. Together they should have enough about them to give the Crows plenty of options in attack, but they can both be lethal and frustrating in equal measures.
At least in Patrick Dangerfield they know for certain that they have a bonafide superstar in waiting and perhaps their next premiership captain. I’m tipping him to explode this year.
Will Adelaide follow suit?
Of all the sides in the bottom four, they have the best chance of climbing the ladder. But outside of their youngsters, is there the quality in their senior players to manufacture a West Coast-like rocket jump into the top four? Unlikely.
Even if they did, by winning the NAB Cup, they’ve blown their cover.
While the Eagles flew under the radar, Adelaide’s chardonnay set bandwagon is starting to swell and opposition teams will be prepared for them. That’s another test in itself.
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