It’s not in the official annals, but I’m pretty sure that back when Noah was drawing up plans for a boating holiday, Richmond went down to Carlton in round one by 40-odd points.
For me, it’s just part of tradition. The heat of February mellows into March. The first leaves on the Japanese maple start to flush with yellow. A bright-eyed coach and a range of pundits all say that the Tigers are building, that they’ll be able to take a real step forward this year.
Then, of course, like the fallen maple leaves on my driveway, the first round of the season sees the brightest yellow trod into the dirt. The victory is clear and clinical. The sound of deflation whines around the MCG as though the assembled crowd were packing up after a camping trip.
A week later, another loss to make them 0 and 2, and Richmond fans have their natural sense of pessimism restored, along with the natural equilibrium of the AFL.
From there they will compete reasonably well for the rest of the season, win a few games they shouldn’t, lose a few they should have won, scrape a draw somewhere along the way, and end with the kind of lower-middle-table finish that will prompt observers to tip them as a side with promise for next season.
As it was in the beginning, is now, and depressingly looks like it ever shall be, amen.
Indeed, the déjà vu is strong for a few sides who are 0-2 already, and their position is a difficult one to rise from.
Melbourne are another whose gods of fate seem content with the same old story. The Demons traditionally generate less expectation than the Tigers. But there is always something – a good draft pick, a new coach, a rejuvenated board – to make people tip improvement.
It’s not always fair. This year the death of clubman Jim Stynes was supposed to magically transform a modest group of footballers into competition leaders. It’s superstition with a bitter twist – the inference that losing then indicates these players don’t care.
The guilt of that fake premise won’t help them play more freely, no matter that the premise is absurd. No amount of motivation can compensate for substantial physical and tactical shortfalls.
But Stynes aside, the season’s brief story is familiar for the Dees, brushed aside in round one by a Brisbane side that will at best be making up the mid-table numbers.
When you see the side that beat you go on to be flogged by 91 points the next week, it must be more than a little depressing. Melbourne didn’t have long to dwell on Brisbane’s loss though, before they themselves were thumped by 108 against West Coast.
0-2, and another long year looms for a Melbourne side who have apparently been rebuilding since their doomed grand final in 2000.
The scoreline looks the same for the Western Bulldogs, too, after losses to West Coast and Adelaide. The Dogs have had déjà vu of a different kind, always being contenders but never being quite good enough.
They’ve been a decent finals side since the early 90s, without ever being able to take the next step. Their fast running squad has lacked the necessary presence in key positions. Preliminary final losses have been a club specialty.
This year the pessimism has set in early for Dogs fans, with the club looking to set to slide further from contention after too many seasons spent there and thereabouts.
Come this evening, an unlikely addition to the 0-2 list could be last year’s premiers Geelong. At present the list is only populated by the three sides mentioned, along with cellar-dwelling new boys Gold Coast and GWS.
But the Cats went down by four points to Fremantle in a pulsating first-round trip to Subiaco, and today face red-hot premiership favourites Hawthorn, who have added ferocity to their game and kilograms to Buddy Franklin’s hulking frame.
The Cats haven’t lost to Hawthorn since the fateful last match of 2008, but one gets the feeling that today might finally be the day that the scales could tip.
Never underestimate the power of a first-round win. There is a tendency to think that it doesn’t matter too much, that any ground lost early can be made up. It can, but there are risks.
Last year the Cats pulled off a last-second win over St Kilda in round one via the unlikely boot of creaking defender Darren Milburn. It really set up the momentum and confidence of their season, after many had written them off as a team doomed to slip away.
Had they managed a similar win against the Dockers last week, it might have done the same. It would mean that even a Hawks loss today would leave them 1-1, and probably feeling like that was a fair reflection.
0-2 wouldn’t put the Cats out of season contention, but it would be an uncomfortable and unfamiliar feeling for a side that has become used to a civilised second place on the ladder.
And it doesn’t matter how well you’ve played, or how very nearly you’ve won, when the numbers start racking up to the right of that hyphen.
Of course, no discussion of déjà vu would be complete without the aforementioned Dockers. Yes, they roared into their season with that last-ditch win over the reigning champs.
Then they promptly forgot how to play football as they travelled interstate to Sydney, a team that should have been well within Freo’s capabilities.
A fortress at home and a circus away, such has been the Docker way in recent seasons. If they truly hope to step up to top-four contention, it will take a change. There aren’t many premierships won at Subiaco.
Nonetheless, that first win makes the Dockers the happiest team we’ve discussed. From here they could even survive a couple more losses. A team who sits at 1-3 can still believe that a tweak or two will right the balance.
At team that sits 0-2 is contemplating a chasm. At 0-3 or 0-4 they’re sliding in.
For season 2012, it only remains to be seen who can dig their fingers in deepest and start to climb.
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