2012/13 NBA season preview: Oklahoma City Thunder
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NBA Finals players LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden will play for the USA (AFP)
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The athletic Oklahoma City Thunder fell one step short of the NBA Championship last year.
Though they eventually went down to LeBron James and the Miami Heat, they have retained their young nucleus, led by three time scoring champ Kevin Durant, and are primed for another run at the title.
Three biggest questions for the Thunder in 2012/13:
How will the Thunder respond to their NBA Finals loss?
Oklahoma City’s greatest strength is also its greatest weakness. The Thunder are quick and athletic – the benefits of youth.
But youth rarely wins NBA championships. Despite making the NBA Finals and playing better than the 4-1 scoreline suggests, the Thunder’s inexperience was the main factor in them coming home empty-handed.
At crucial times, the Thunder simply made costly mistakes or took the wrong options.
The question now becomes, will they learn from their Finals experience, or are they still a young team prone to brain explosions?
I have no doubt that the regular season will again cause few concerns for the Thunder. As mentioned, they’re young and talented, and they simply run teams off their feet during the regular season.
But as the pace slows down in the playoffs, and teams run more half-court offence, execution becomes more important than simply outrunning teams. This is when the Oklahoma City’s inexperience, combined with its lack of a true point guard and few low post threats, starts to show.
On many nights, they’re still so talented that they can overcome these deficiencies. But the Miami Heat could not be out-talented, and with the LA Lakers’ new All Star roster, the Thunder may not even make it out of the West in 2012/13.
Is Kevin Durant ready to take LeBron James’ MVP trophy?
With three NBA scoring titles to his name at the ripe old age of 24, no one questions Durant’s ability to put the ball in the hoop. Quite simply, he’s a scoring machine. But scoring alone does not win MVP trophies.
Durant has worked hard on the other parts of his game, and is now a very good rebounder, a solid defender and an able and willing passer. He’s also become the premier clutch player in the league, winning numerous games at or near the buzzer for the Thunder.
In another time or era, he may already have had one or two MVP trophies to his name. The problem is, he’s playing during the LeBron James era, a player who just happens to be on his way to basketball immortality. Indeed, James may go down as one of the five greatest players in NBA history.
Worse still for Durant, now that James has the championship monkey off his back, the relief from pressure may see James become even better. And if James goes to another level this season, no one will be relieving him of the mantle of best player in the league.
The only hope for Durant is ‘voter fatigue’, when journalists stop voting for the deserving player, simply because they’re sick of him winning. It happened to Michael Jordan, when Karl Malone was awarded the MVP in 1997.
But I can’t see it happening again. Durant is a great, great player. But James is simply better.
Should the Thunder re-sign James Harden?
Well, they should. But the real question is, can they?
Having already handed out big contracts to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, the Thunder will struggle to offer Harden a max contract. Whether Harden deserves a max contract is irrelevant, because teams will be lining up to offer him one when he’s a free agent at the end of the season.
The Thunder are hopeful of re-signing him before the October 31 deadline, and are praying that the attraction of playing with friends and building a long, lasting dynasty in Oklahoma will prove more enticing than extra money at a different ballclub.
The other consideration for the Thunder is roster balance. Is Harden a luxury or a necessity? The Thunder’s two main deficiencies are a true point guard and a low post scorer. With so much money tied up in Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and potentially Harden, adding another quality free agent or player is almost impossible.
Which means that if the Thunder want to address their issues, they’re going to need to trade someone.
So who is the odd man out? It’s potentially Harden.
Oklahoma City Thunder Snapshot:
Last season:
Regular Season:
- 47 wins, 19 losses
- Finished second in the Western Conference, and first in the Northwest Division
Playoffs:
- Qualified for the NBA Finals, losing 4-1 to the Miami Heat
Statistical leaders in 2011/12:
Points: Kevin Durant (28 ppg)
Rebounds: Kevin Durant (8 rpg)
Assists: Russell Westbrook (5.5 apg)
Major additions:
N/A
Major losses:
Derek Fisher
Coach:
Scott Brooks
Career Record: 174 wins, 125 losses
Predicted finish in 2012/13:
Regular Season:
- Second in the Western Conference
- First in Northwest Division
Playoffs:
- Lose in the Western Conference Finals
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Ryan is an ex-representative basketballer who shot too much, and a (very) medium pace bowler. He's been with The Roar as an expert since February 2011, has written for the Seven Network and NBA Down Under, and been a regular on ABC radio. Ryan tweets from @RyanOak.
The Crowd Says (8) | Page 1 of Comments
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October 18th 2012 @ 1:46am
Johnno said | October 18th 2012 @ 1:46am | Report comment
I’ll say one thing about Durant. Shane Heal eat your heart out. Wow did Durant have a hot hand at the Olympics. I have never seen such a hot hand like Durant’s. Such a good 3-point shooter nothing but net. Wheather or not this can transcend into a long regular season remiains to be seen. Like soccer , tournament basketball is different to regular season. Less grinding , you have to step up at the clutch where as regular season is a grind. A Durant is not as physical as Le Bron. Will his body be fit and not bruised and battered,by the time the play offs come round which will suite his style more. Time will tell .
October 18th 2012 @ 11:36am
Ryan O'Connell said | October 18th 2012 @ 11:36am | Report comment
To be fair Johnno, he’s the led the league in scoring for the last three years, so he clearly can extend his hot hand over the course of a season.
It was interesting that he was more aggressive with his shot with Team USA than he sometimes is with the Thunder.
October 18th 2012 @ 9:31am
basketballguru said | October 18th 2012 @ 9:31am | Report comment
Great piece . I agree with the prognosis , losing to the Lakers in the WC Finals makes sense to me .
My problems with the Thunder are several :
a) if and when the Thunder match up with the Lakers in the playoffs , who contains D12 ?
Answer , nobody . Kendrick Perkins is a year older , and Ibaka isn’t in D12′s league . They do come with the rugged Nick Collison off the bench , and that’s a pretty decent three headed monster . But the Lakers can counter that with the two headed monster of D12 and Gasol , who are going to cause some serious headaches this season .
b) will Westbrook ever control himself out there ?
I’m not convinced . Westbrook plays with more energy than most but some of that translates into him morphing into a shooting guard who gets out of control . There were signs in the Finals of Westbrook trying to do his own thing instead of deferring to the NBA’s number one pure scorer in Durant . It’s an interesting dynamic that will play out , as the expectation levels rise in OKC . The fans will be expecting another Finals run this season . Westbrook is a top 15 NBA talent and needs to be aware of this . Some of his body language suggests otherwise .
c) Should they re- sign Harden long term ?
In short , yes . Clay Bennett has seen the value of his team skyrocket in value since he purchased them 5/6 seasons ago . No point being a tight-wad now , just give him the max money and cough up the 10 million or so luxury tax . Bennett needs to be less businessman and more ‘Mark Cuban’ at this stage . Yes , the Thunder are that close .
d) Will they miss Derek Fisher ?
Leadership , yes . But he can’t defend the back side of a barn door right now . Its 50/50 . Besides , with Eric Maynor returning from injury , he’s surplus to requirements . I expect that the Thunder will sign someone mid season to fill that void .
e) Can Scott Brooks coach ?
Yes , but he needs to work his offense so that Durant is shooting more than Westbrook . Or Durant needs to be more forceful out there . At times , the Thunder live and die by Westbrook’s emotions . Coaching in the NBA is more about man-management than what’s in the playbook ( that’s what the 38000 assistants on NBA benches are for ) , and Brooks is still learning his trade . There’s time .
October 18th 2012 @ 11:41am
Ryan O'Connell said | October 18th 2012 @ 11:41am | Report comment
It’s hard to be too critical of Westbrook, as you can’t question his effort. Like you said, he plays with some serious intensity. But he does play out of control, and he is very, very moody and emotional.
He and Durant are close, and Durant always defends him when people say he shoots too much, or doesn’t get others involved, etc. Durant actually gets annoyed when people question their chemistry, because they are close. But chemistry it more than just liking each other – there is the offensive chemistry, due to skill sets.
To that notion, I’m not sure Westbrook is the perfect fit, for a point guard, for Durant.
But Westbrook does cop a little too much flak, in my opinion.
October 18th 2012 @ 4:17pm
Millz said | October 18th 2012 @ 4:17pm | Report comment
Why don’t they just ship Ibaka to someone else, and keep Harden?
October 18th 2012 @ 4:36pm
Ryan O'Connell said | October 18th 2012 @ 4:36pm | Report comment
They could, but then they would be a bit light upfront. They’d struggle to defend teams that have height, and would lack rebounding.
October 18th 2012 @ 9:17pm
Swampy said | October 18th 2012 @ 9:17pm | Report comment
Lebron ain’t top 5. If he carries on from the end of last season the range is top 2.
The only way that will not be the case is if the Black Mamba nicks another title with his living legends outfit.
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October 19th 2012 @ 12:30pm
Ryan O'Connell said | October 19th 2012 @ 12:30pm | Report comment
I tend to agree, but I thought I’d hold back in my gushing praise just a touch!