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James Pattinson’s concession yesterday he will probably miss at least the first two Ashes Tests confirms Australia’s much-vaunted depth in pace bowling is about to be seriously tested.
His expected absence until the third Test means Australia must identify a new opening bowler to partner Ryan Harris.
It also means they have become more reliant than ever on Harris remaining healthy.
Pattinson, Australia’s best young quick, said he had not yet started running and would in two weeks get a scan which would indicate whether his back stress fracture had healed.
“I won’t be back for the first Test, don’t think I’ll be right for the second,” Pattinson said. “But all things going well I could push for that WACA Test.
“If it’s a bit green we could play four quicks up there, but I’ll know more when I start bowling. I’m probably rushing a bit if I’m trying to get back for that first Test and last thing I want is for that to happen again and push my body too far”.
Pattinson may not have impressed in England, bowling about 10kmh slower than previous and rarely troubling England’s batsmen.
But the real Pattinson, the one who has generated late swing at up to 153kmh, would be a huge weapon on the livelier Aussie decks.
In six home Tests, he has snared 30 wickets at an average of 21.
Unfortunately, the chances are slim of him regaining such venom immediately in the wake of a long injury layoff.
With left arm paceman Mitchell Starc set to miss the Ashes due to a back injury, that leaves veteran Ryan Harris as the only remaining strike bowler from Australia’s last Ashes squad.
Peter Siddle is an intrinsic component of the Test side but has become more of a dependable support bowler in recent times.
He lacks the same ability as Harris and Pattinson to wreak havoc with the new ball.
Given Siddle has become a specialist first-change bowler, the Aussie selectors must now identify a man to partner Harris with the shiny pill in at least the first two Tests.
That would appear to be a shootout between Jackson Bird and Mitchell Johnson.
The former is the far more reliable option but undoubtedly tarnished his reputation with a tame tour of England.
The Tasmanian is renowned for doing his most incisive work with the new ball yet he rarely took wickets in his first spell in any matches on the tour.
Largely that seemed to be the result of his inability to gain movement with the Dukes ball, something which was also evident on his tour to England with Australia A last year.
Many swing bowlers become toothless when they cannot make the pill swerve.
Bird does, however, have a proven ability to bend the Kookaburra ball and, at this stage, would be my choice to partner Harris in the first Test at Brisbane.
Johnson is the bolter though and, considering the selectors clearly believe the Poms have a weakness against left armers, he is appears more likely to play at the Gabba than Bird.
It is a real predicament for Australia, who need everything to go their way this summer if they are to cause an upset and regain the Ashes.
The injuries to Pattinson, Starc and Pat Cummins, who is expected to miss the whole season with another back complaint, leaves the Aussies without their three most gifted young quicks.
Fortuitously for Australia, it has far greater options in its pace ranks than in does among its batting or spin stocks.
The likes of Chadd Sayers, Ben Cutting and Nathan Coulter-Nile are well performed at State level.
But that does not guarantee they would swiftly adapt to the rigours of Test cricket, particularly in a massively-publicised series against a line-up boasting a clutch of accomplished veteran batsmen.
Along with many Australian pundits and fans, I have lauded the strength of our pace stocks.
Well, it looks like this summer we may just find out whether we were right or just desperate for something to hang our hats on.