Tomic’s reign as the Australian number one is under threat if he fails to deliver during the summer of tennis.
As we enter the Australian summer the pressure will be all on Tomic as he defends his Sydney title and his third round at this year’s Australian Open.
What is also under threat is his mantle as Australia’s best.
With three other Australians close behind the Queenslander, a poor summer could lead to him losing his spot as our highest ranked player.
What is worse for Tomic is that even an okay summer could still see him lose his position at the top.
Currently, entering the first week of the new ATP season, Tomic is the world number 51.
Behind him, Lleyton Hewitt is 60th, Marinko Matosevic is 61st and Matt Ebden is 68th in the rankings.
All four are realistic chances of becoming the Australian number one by the end of the summer.
The big reason for this is the close proximity between the four in ranking points.
Tomic currently has 910 points, Hewitt has 780, Matosevic has 774 and Ebden has 706.
The difference between the four is just 204 points.
While that doesn’t sound like much, it does become significant when you look at how many points each player has to defend in the Australian summer.
Tomic has 250 points to defend at Sydney and a further 90 at the Australian Open.
Hewitt has 20 points to defend in Brisbane and just 10 at the Australian Open.
Both Matosevic and Ebden have 10 points at the Australian Open.
As a result, a first round loss at the Sydney International could see Tomic fall from Australian number one, to number four.
He would also plummet to about 75 in the world rankings.
This is assuming he also defends his Australian Open third round appearance.
If he doesn’t defend the points at the Australian Open, he could fall to as low as 95 in the rankings.
With the lottery of the men’s draw at the Australian Open he could well be bundled out in the first round by drawing a top five seed.
You only have to ask Lleyton Hewitt about horror draws at the Australian Open.
He drew Janko Tipsarevic this year and was beaten in straight sets by the Serbian who played some inspired tennis that night.
Even a good Sydney International could see Tomic lose his ranking as Australia’s number one.
A quarter final appearance – worth 45 points – would see him still fall down to Australian number four if everyone defended their points.
With a tougher field expected at the Sydney event than last year, Tomic faces a tough challenge of defending his title.
His form also isn’t convincing for a person who is looking to win back to back titles.
After Wimbledon this year, Tomic won just four matches in eleven tournaments he competed in.
Having said all of this though, Tomic was in similar form last year, before he had a fantastic summer.
He is going to have to have a similar summer to retain his number one ranking.
Looking to capitalise on Tomic’s potential downfall will be Lleyton Hewitt who looks to be the best chance of taking over as the Australian number one.
The last time Hewitt was number one was on the 20th of June in 2011.
Tomic then made the quarter finals at Wimbledon and Hewitt hasn’t been back since.
It would be a remarkable turn-around for the South Australian after almost being outside of the top 200 at the end of the 2011 season.
What is in Hewitt’s favour, compared to Matosevic and Ebden, is how deep in Grand Slam tournaments he can go, which could provide him with a significant number of points.
A fourth round appearance – which he did at this year’s US Open – at Melbourne Park would be enough for Hewitt to take the number one spot if Tomic defended all his points.
Hewitt is also competing at Brisbane – where he is defending 20 points – and anything could happen there as well if the draw is right.
Marinko Matosevic and Matt Ebden are also chances to become the Australian number one.
The big problem both face is they need to do well at the Australian Open, and neither have done that so far.
While both players will play in Brisbane, Sydney, and in Melbourne, both will need to score well in each tournament to gather enough points to overtake their fellow countryman.
Marinko Matosevic has done well in ATP 250 and ATP 500 events but has yet to win at Grand Slam level.
You feel it isn’t too far away for the Victorian and maybe the 2014 Australian Open can deliver him his maiden victory and a return as the Australian number one.
Matosevic was number one on the 25th of February this year after making the semi-finals at the Memphis ATP 500 event.
A good few results in Brisbane, Sydney and in Melbourne could see him return to the summit.
The biggest unknown factor is Matt Ebden.
The Western Australian stormed home last year, winning 32 of his last 38 matches on the ATP Challenger circuit to end his season.
He accumulated 388 points in those events at an average of 43 points per tournament.
If he continues that form into the Australian summer, he could pull a Steven Bradbury and climb to number one.
The problem is, the ATP World Tour is a higher level than the ATP Challenger series.
Can he translate that form in Australia? And do it in front of his home fans?
Last year he struggled in Australia and that could happen again if he starts to get the yips.
He will need to perform well in either Brisbane or Sydney, and then win a couple of matches in Melbourne to gain the number one spot.
With the form he is in from the last few months, anything is possible.
No matter what happens over the summer of tennis, one thing is certain, it will be a heated battle for the Australian number one ranking.
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