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The AFC Seedings have been blown wide open after a wild weekend of NFL action. By losing to St. Louis, the Denver Broncos have gone from a lock for a week off in the first round of the playoffs to a possible wildcard team.
New England has firmed as the likely number one seed after their big win over Indianapolis.
I thought this was the perfect time to outline where each team in the upper echelon of the AFC stand and who will finish with the top seeds.
The Denver Broncos have looked like the best team in football for much of the season, with many experts counting the Seattle loss as a win despite the terrible play of the offense for the first 57 minutes.
The same experts simply overlooked the New England blow out as a Tom Brady master class. However, after the loss to St. Louis, the shortcomings of the Denver Broncos cannot be overlooked anymore.
Peyton Manning gets confused and makes bad decisions when opposing defences don’t play their hand pre-snap. It is tough to do, but New England and now St. Louis have both done it and it has led to Manning repeatedly throwing into double and triple coverage. Add on to this the Broncos struggles on the road, and the Mile High team could be in trouble.
After the loss to St. Louis and Kansas City’s stunning upset win over Seattle, in which Jamaal Charles ran amok, the Broncos and Chiefs now sit tied atop the AFC West at 7-3.
The two teams meet in two weeks’ time on Thanksgiving weekend in a clash that could determine the winner of the AFC West and the AFC’s number two seed.
This is a match-up that the Chiefs have to be favoured in, they are at home, where they haven’t lost since week one, and they pushed Denver all the way in week two – a match in which they were missing Jamaal Charles for most of the game and before they developed into the team we see today.
If the Broncos lose this match and both teams win their remaining divisional matches, which is no certainty, they will hold a 5-1 record in the AFC West and a 1-1 head-to-head record.
Perhaps the only saving grace for the Broncos is the fact that the Chiefs must face Arizona the week after the Denver clash. If the Cardinals win this match both Denver and Kansas City will likely be heading towards a 12-4 record.
That is where we have to consult the NFL’s lengthy tie-breaking processes, and yes, they do end in a coin toss if the tie cannot be broken.
Thankfully though, we will only have to go as far as the third tiebreaker, record against common opponents, which the Chiefs finish ahead by one win.
This will relegate the Broncos to a wildcard spot and the fifth seed – and we all know what that means. A cold weather game against whoever wins the AFC North, which I investigated last week. It is no secret that Peyton Manning struggles in the cold and there is every possibly that the team that has been open about its Super Bowl or bust mentality will out of the playoffs in week one.
If the Chiefs win the AFC West, the next thing they need to do is lock up the number two seed in the AFC.
Finishing 13-3 will ensure that the Chiefs are at worst the number two seed. The Patriots control their own destiny in regards to sealing the number one seed, win out and they are number one.
But winning out is far from assured for the Patriots. On the same day the Chiefs host Denver, New England are travelling to the frozen tundra to take on the streaking Packers. This is sure to be a classic, but one that the Packers will start as favourites.
If the Patriots lose this match and the Chiefs win out, the Chiefs win the number one seed, courtesy of their 41-14 drubbing of the Patriots in week four, after which Trent Dilfer labeled the Patriots a “weak team”.
Oh how wrong he was, to his credit though he ate his words after the Patriots big win over Indianapolis.
Speaking of Indianapolis, the Colts can also still grab the number two seed if things fall their way.
First they need to win out, which they should do with Dallas in week 16 being their only test.
Next, they need the Chiefs to win the AFC West, hope Kansas City loses at least one match throughout the remainder of the season and hope that that loss comes against an AFC opponent, preferably the Steelers. They must then hope that their strength of victory is better than the Chiefs’ once the season ends.
In other words, it’s highly unlikely unless the Chiefs lose more than one match and still win the AFC West.
Every year when we get to this point of the season a number of permutations and combinations of playoff seedings open up. One of the most important weeks in determining seedings this season will be Thanksgiving weekend, in just two weeks’ time.
As I mentioned earlier, Denver faces Kansas City and the Patriots head to Lambaeu Field and on top of this, Dallas hosts Philadelphia and Seattle travels to San Francisco.
I’ll explore these matches in greater detail as we get closer to the Thanksgiving, but in the meantime get prepared to enjoy Arizona’s visit to Seattle next week, a match that, along with Seattle’s Thanksgiving clash, could end the defending Super Bowl champs playoff hopes.
Twitter: @fromthesheds
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