The NFL season is now 12 weeks old and the race to the playoffs is heating up. For some teams, like the San Francisco 49ers, every match they play could make or break their playoff chances.
Sitting at 7-4, the 49ers currently find themselves on the outside looking in, sitting behind Detroit at the second team out of the playoffs.
However, they have won their last three matches and their already strong defence continues to improve as they launch their push for a playoff spot.
The 49ers have been one of the most difficult teams to pick this season, one week they look like potential Super Bowl contenders, such as their dominant win over the Eagles, and others they look dreadful, such as the home loss to the Rams.
Many of the problems associated with the 49ers come from their offensive line. To say it is bad would be an understatement. They have allowed a whopping 34 sacks, over three a game, and their adjusted sack rate is 9.1 per cent.
While all of the blame can’t be placed on the offensive line, and some must be attributed to the oft-scrambling Colin Kaepernick, the quarterback often doesn’t have much choice when the pocket is collapsing around him.
Thankfully for San Francisco the run blocking hasn’t been as bad as the offensive line’s pass protection. The offensive line is ranked 16th in run blocking according to Football Outsiders and the 49ers’ running game has reflected this throughout the season. The running attack is ranked 17th in yards per carry, an average of four yards per attempt.
There is nothing particularly wrong with having an average running game, but you have to have both a dominant defence and an elite quarterback in order to overcome these struggles. The Cardinals, formerly led by Carson Palmer and now Drew Stanton, are ranked last in yards per carry. But they also have one of the best defences in the league and Carson Palmer was playing at an excellent level.
The 49ers have a strong defence but they don’t possess an elite quarterback, or even one at Palmer’s level. Kaepernick is a solid quarterback, but he is not yet at the stage where an offence can be built around him and he can lead his team to victory without the presence of a running game. Kaepernick is ranked 18th in the quarterback stakes, behind Jay Cutler, Mike Glennon and Andy Dalton.
Kaepernick has done a good job protecting the football, throwing just six intercepts, but he has also struggled considerably with his accuracy. He has completed just 61 per cent of his passes, an improvement on last year’s completion percentage but less than his completion rate in 2012, the year he took this team to the Super Bowl.
Along with being sacked 34 times, Kaepernick has also fumbled the ball seven times this season, tied for second most in the league among quarterbacks. The sack problems, fumble issues and completion rate all string from the same issue, the offensive line. It is no secret that completion percentages plummet when quarterbacks are under pressure and scrambling and Kaepernick is no different.
Despite the struggles of the offence, the 49ers have been in contention in every match they have played apart from the Denver blow out. This is largely thanks to the strong play of the defence, who are giving up just 18.75 points per game.
The defence is currently ranked fourth in defensive efficiency, behind just Detroit, Denver and Miami, and are likely to rise above Miami following their dominant performance against Washington, restricting Robert Griffin III to just 106 passing yards and sacking him five times in a completely dominant performance. On top of this, the 49ers defence is ranked second in the league in both total yards allowed and passing yards allowed.
The defence has managed to dominate even without star linebacker NaVorro Bowman, who is slated to return in the coming weeks after meeting with noted surgeon Dr James Andrews over the weekend. Bowman will add an extra dimension to the defence and will likely be joined by defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey who came off injured reserve last week and is in the process of recovering from a biceps surgery.
The secret to the 49ers’ success on defence is what the most successful teams rely on every year, replacement level players on cheap contracts playing above replacement level. Rookie linebackers Aaron Lynch and Chris Borland, drafted in the fifth and seventh rounds, have filled in for the absence of Bowman and recent loss of Patrick Willis with aplomb.
Rookie cornerback Dontae Johnson has excelled in defending slot receivers and fellow cornerback Chris Culliver, who is still on his rookie contract, has returned to levels above that of his 2012 play, despite missing the entire 2013 season with a knee injury. Finally, safety Antoine Bethea, who signed a fairly hefty four-year $21 million contract as a free agent prior to the start of the season, has collected three intercepts and has been labeled by some as the best safety in the NFL.
For the 49ers to leapfrog the Seahawks, Lions and Eagles and earn a playoff birth they will have to survive a brutal five-week stretch to finish the season, a finish far more brutal than the Lions, slightly harder than the Eagles and probably slightly easier than the Seahawks.
The 49ers and Seahawks face each other twice, starting this week on Thanksgiving, and both teams will battle the Cardinals in the last two weeks of the season. These three matches will essentially determine the second and third placings in the division, assuming Arizona finishes in first place, which is no certainty and we all know what happens to those who make assumptions.
Finishing second in the division will be vital because there is every chance that only the second placed finisher in the NFC West will earn themselves a wildcard, with the Eagles and Lions still 8-3 and 7-4 respectively.
Very few people actually have any faith in the Detroit Lions but apart from their Week 17 match against the Packers they have a fairly easy finish to the season. They should finish 11-5 and finishing 11-5 almost certainly assures a team a wildcard and a spot in the playoffs.
The 49ers need to win their final three home games against Seattle, San Diego and Arizona and beat Oakland on the road, do that and they finish at worst 11-5. This, however, is far easier said than done.
For it to be done San Francisco needs improved play from the running attack of the Colin Kaepernick led passing game. If Kaepernick doesn’t improve, the 49ers could be in danger of missing the playoffs and seeing their coach flee east.
Twitter: @fromthesheds
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