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Nick Kyrgios will be like the Melbourne Cup when he stops the nation tonight, taking on Andy Murray in a quarter-final of the Australian Open.
That’s a fair comparison, Kyrgios has proved himself a thoroughbred in his short but spectacular career of seven Slams, against Murray’s 35.
In experience terms, the 19-year-old Aussie is still an international rookie, but this is his second Slam quarter final, and he doesn’t intend to let his run end at Melbourne Park tonight.
Murray’s CV rates him among the world’s top four, a fact Kyrgios salutes with respect.
But there will be no mercy from Kyrgios if he plays to form, and unleashes his fearless power.
So far in this tournament, Kyrgios has served 97 aces in his four rounds, Murray just 37.
The 97 in second only to another quarter finalist, Canada’s Milos Raonic with 99.
Murray doesn’t figure in the top 20.
But make no mistake, Murray is no back-seater when it comes to serving, his placement and consistency certainly covers for a lack of aces.
In other important stats, Kyrgios has smacked 227 winners, Murray 142, further underlining Kyrgios’ fearless and relentless slather and whack approach.
Both players have far more winners than unforced errors, proof enough both are in form – Kyrgios has 66 unforced to Murray’s 105.
But for mine, the most telling stat are break point conversions, and that’s where Kyrgios has genuine problems.
In the four rounds to date, Kyrgios has converted only 11 of his 37 break points, for a dangerously low 29%. Murray has converted 25 of 53 for a far more acceptable 53%. That being said, Murray’s conversion rate is still too low.
The further the Slam goes, break points become more vital because they are harder to get, and even harder to convert.
Nothing short of a 65% conversion rate will be required to advance for the rest of the week.
The packed Rod Laver Arena tonight will be to Kyrgios’ advantage. That’s showing no disrespect to Murray, it would be the opposite reaction if they were meeting at Wimbledon.
So that home crowd advantage will play a major role, as they did in Kyrgios’ massive comeback last round from two sets down against Andreas Seppi, to win in five.
Where Murray will hold the edge is his solid track record of two Slam successes – the 2012 US Open and the historic 2013 Wimbledon – plus five runners up in the 2008 US Open, the 2012 Wimbledon, and the 2010, 2011, and 2013 Australian Opens.
That makes Rod Laver Arena a happy hunting ground for Murray, but it will be Kyrgios’ first appearance at HQ.
Will that faze Kyrgios?
Maybe walking onto the court to a thunderous reception. Or maybe in the warm-up, but when push turns to shove, it will be business as usual.
And that business is non-stop fearless power, hopefully tempered with more delicate touch shots when required.
Whatever happens tonight, it’s great for Australian tennis Nick Kyrgios has surfaced with such fanfare.
He’s achieved so much in such a short time, he can only get better.
That’s an awesome thought, but let him do it in his own time.