If Australia are to progress to the second round of the Davis Cup for the first time since 2006, team selection needs to be spot on against the number one team in the world, the Czech Republic.
Picking the right team for both singles and doubles, will be a challenge for new coach Wally Masur this weekend.
With no Tomas Berdych or Radek Stepanek, the Czech Republic are a shadow of the team they have been in the last three years as the number one team in the Davis Cup. Although they are still dangerous, featuring the likes of Lukas Rosol and Jiri Vesely.
If Nick Kyrgios was in Australia’s team, the side would virtually pick itself. Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic would play singles, with Sam Groth and Lleyton Hewitt teaming up in doubles.
But with Kyrgios out through injury, and Thanasi Kokkinakis in, the second singles spot becomes a race in three between Groth, Hewitt, and Kokkinakis.
This is where form, experience, and training in the Czech Republic come into contention.
Tomic is an absolute lock for the first singles spot. If I could give a ‘Lock of the week,’ like they do in ball sports, he would have it.
His form in 2015 has been brilliant. In six events, he has won 14 matches, and made four quarter finals, one semi final, and the fourth round of the Australian Open.
Last year he scored 797 points in ATP events and the Davis Cup. This year he already has 62 per cent of those points in two months of tennis. With the form he is in, he is capable of beating both Rosol and Vesely in this tie.
This leaves the final singles spot. Do you go with the experience of Hewitt, the youth of Kokkinakis, or the big serve of Sam Groth? It is a tough proposition for Masur as he also needs to have one eye on doubles as well.
Australia would be favourites for the doubles contest with Hewitt and Groth to play in that crucial rubber. This leaves Masur with two questions.
Do you double duty with Hewitt or Groth for singles? Or do you throw Kokkinakis in the deep end for his first live rubber against either Vesely or Rosol? These two questions could decide the tie.
Managing Hewitt will be vital. He can’t play three days of Davis Cup – I’m not sure he can even play two. But while his form and fitness are down from previous years, his experience can’t be discounted.
Kokkinakis’ form is better, after qualifying for three straight ATP events last month. But to count out Groth would be a bad idea after he defeated Hewitt and Kokkinakis in the Australian summer. The only problem for Groth is he is Australia’s highest ranked doubles player. He needs to play on Saturday and guide Australia home in the doubles. Similarly to Hewitt you couldn’t throw him into singles and doubles for three days.
Assessing the squad, the strengths lies in Tomic, and the doubles combination of Hewitt and Groth. Unless there is an injury in the team, these combinations will play.
Best case sees Tomic win his two matches, and the doubles win, to book Australia into the quarters. Worst case is Australia losing all three, and are eliminated. If it is somewhere in between – one or two wins – the decision for Masur may already be made.
To make it two wins, with a win in doubles, you need to keep Groth and Hewitt fit. In this scenario you pick Kokkinakis for singles on Friday. This would keep Groth and Hewitt fit, and who knows, with the form Kokkinakis is in, he could surprise and make it easier for Australia to win. If he doesn’t, and the tie goes to the reverse singles day, you can then use Hewitt, Groth or Kokkinakis to win the contest.
It is almost a no-brainer to use Kokkinakis on the opening day. If he loses, you lose nothing, and keep Hewitt and Groth fit for doubles. If he wins, Australia moves into a commanding position, to win the tie.
Of course this all relies on Bernard Tomic. Usually this would be fraught with caution, with his temper, and his form in the ATP.
At Davis Cup level though, Tomic has been brilliant. In 14 matches, he has won 12, and lost twice – against Roger Federer and Florian Mayer on clay. On hard courts he is 5 wins and 0 losses.
As a result, Masur should pick Tomic and Kokkinakis in singles, and Hewitt and Groth in doubles. It is a risk, but a worthwhile risk.
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