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The AFL’s 2015 home-and-away season is finished, the Brownlow votes have been locked away, and though no one has counted them up yet, the 2015 Brownlow Medal winner is decided. The big question, of course, is who will it be?
MORE AFL FINALS:
>> EAGLES VS HAWKS PREVIEW
>> DOCKERS VS SWANS PREVIEW
>> DOGS VS CROWS PREVIEW
Nat Fyfe
Betting Odds: $2
Fyfe has been the favourite to win the medal all year long, following a blistering start to the season that may well see him in the lead for the award right from the first round.
He is a good chance to poll votes in all of his first 10 matches, and could already have a winning lead built up before the count is halfway through.
In May, CrownBet paid out six figures worth of bets on Fyfe, with CEO Matt Tripp saying, “it seems a formality that we’d be paying out on him in September anyway, so punters might as well enjoy their cash now.”
Of course, not everything has gone to plan and Fyfe was nearly made ineligible for the award on a few occasions, flirting with suspension after some on-field reports.
All of them fell by the wayside, however, and unlike last year he is eligible heading into the 2015 count.
The bigger concern is his drop-off in the second half of the year. While he was still playing quality footy, it wasn’t the world-beating form he showed in the season’s first half, meaning may struggle to poll latter votes.
He missed four of the last six games of the year, playing only 18 in total, meaning he’ll have to gain votes at a prodigious rate to take the win.
But if anyone can win the Bronwlow off half a season, it’s Nat Fyfe.
Matt Priddis
Betting odds: $4.5
Matt Priddis’ victory in the 2014 Brownlow count came as a surprise, but it will be no surprise if the hardened ball-winner goes back-to-back after another quality season.
Always a favourite of the umpires, Priddis went into last year’s count as a dark horse and impressively managed to trump the pre-count favourites Gary Ablett Jr, Joel Selwood and Robbie Gray, finishing one vote ahead of an ineligible Fyfe.
Can he pull it off again? While many will point out that Priddis has had a better season in 2015 than he did in 2014, last year he was aided by the fact that his teammates struggled to have a regular impact, allowing him to be the standout player in most Eagles matches.
However in 2015 the likes of Andrew Gaff, Josh J Kennedy and Nic Naitanui have all had magnificent seasons and will steal a few votes away from Priddis.
His consistent form may still get him across the line – he has again played all 22 games – but back-to-back might be just beyond his reach.
Patrick Dangerfield
Betting Odds: $7
Dangerfield has looked like the kind of player who could win a Brownlow ever since his breakout 2012 season, but his 2013 and 2014 form fluctuated a bit, and despite polling well in both seasons, he was short of the win each time.
2015, however, could be his year, as he’s recorded career-high averages for disposals and tackles while still averaging a goal a game.
He’s had some huge performances along the way where you would be more than comfortable locking in the three votes for him ahead of time, and while his teammates have been good enough to see the Crows into finals, none of them will be stealing votes from him too regularly.
His Round 9 battle with Nat Fyfe – which saw Dangerfield collect 38 disposals and kick a goal, while Fyfe had 40 disposals and a goal – could well be a tie-breaker for the win.
There’s not too many knocks on him. He has polled 66 votes in the last three years and this is primed to be his best one yet.
Dan Hannebery
Betting Odds: $9
I’m surprised that more people aren’t talking up Hannebery’s Brownlow chances, as he may well be the pick of the bunch.
In 2013 he was one of the best performers, picking up 21 votes across as many games and winning All-Australian selection. Injuries cruelled his 2014 but he still managed to find 11 votes.
2015 has been the best year of his career. He’s averaged over 30 disposals a game – five more than in any other year – as well as putting up career-best tackle numbers and continuing to contribute to the scoreboard.
On top of that, he’s clearly been Sydney’s best player. Teammate Josh P Kennedy might steal a few votes, but Hannebery has definitely been the Swans’ most eye-catching player.
He pipped Nat Fyfe to win the AFL coaches’ most valuable player award in the final round of the year, don’t be surprised if the Brownlow Medal count has a similar ending.
Sam Mitchell
Betting Odds: $9
A perennial runner-up, not many players in the AFL are more deserving of a Brownlow than Sam Mitchell.
With a total of 178 career Brownlow votes, Mitchell has the ninth most in VFL/AFL history, and is behind only Brent Harvey (183) and Leigh Matthews (202) as the player with the most votes not to have actually won the medal.
Mitchell has enjoyed another strong season and should be in contention for the award yet again.
That said, he’s fallen just shy of winning the whole thing on so many occasions, and there’s not really a point of difference this time around to suggest that won’t happen again.
Todd Goldstein
Betting Odds: $12
The Brownlow is often criticised for being a midfielder’s medal as it’s been some time since it was won by a player anywhere else on the ground – even though there have been some particularly deserving individuals over the last few years.
However if anyone stands a chance of breaking that run of midfield winners, it’s Todd Goldstein, who has had one of the most impressive seasons by a ruckman in history.
Goldstein has recorded career-high averages in both hitouts and disposals, while also maintaining strong tackling numbers and occasionally hitting up the scoreboard.
He would be a deserving winner, but he might be hit by what I’ll call ‘the Robbie Gray curse’ – when a player comes from relative obscurity to superstardom so quickly it often takes the umpires a while to catch up.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goldstein poll a relatively low number of votes this year – as Gray did in 2014 – only to get significantly more reward next time around.
The smokies
I’m pretty confident saying one (or more) of the above six players will be the 2015 Brownlow Medal winner, but the count doesn’t always go as expected. If someone’s going to come from lower down the order to claim the win, these players are most likely.
Scott Pendlebury – $41
He’s quietly had a very good year and while you wouldn’t say he’s been the best player of 2015, the proven vote-gettter is in with a chance.
Robbie Gray – $51
Has he been the best player of 2015? No, but he was probably the best player of 2014 and as I said above didn’t really get his due in that count. The umpires have a habit of over-correcting and that could work in Gray’s favour.
Dane Swan – $81
Much like his teammate Pendles, Swan probably hasn’t had the best season of any player this year, but he’s been excellent and the umpires love to give him votes. Wouldn’t be a massive shock.