NSW host Queensland in Game 1 of the 2016 State of Origin series tonight, in a match that more often than not decides the winner of the series.
While we’ll have to wait until tonight to find out who gets the early ascendancy, let’s put the teams side by side and see who’s the most likely winner.
Yes, it’s a completely flawed method, but who doesn’t have fun putting people next to one another and deciding who’s best?
Team sheet
| NSW | Position | Queensland |
| Matt Moylan | Fullback | Darius Boyd |
| Blake Ferguson | Wing | Corey Oates |
| Michael Jennings | Centre | Greg Inglis |
| Josh Morris | Centre | Justin O’Neill |
| Josh Mansour | Wing | Dane Gagai |
| James Maloney | Five-eighth | Johnathan Thurston |
| Adam Reynolds | Halfback | Cooper Cronk |
| Aaron Woods | Prop | Matt Scott |
| Robbie Farah | Hooker | Cameron Smith |
| Paul Gallen | Prop | Nate Myles |
| Boyd Cordner | Second row | Matt Gillett |
| Josh Jackson | Second row | Sam Thaiday |
| Greg Bird | Lock | Corey Parker |
| Dylan Walker | Interchange | Michael Morgan |
| James Tamou | Interchange | Josh McGuire |
| David Klemmer | Interchange | Aidan Guerra |
| Andrew Fifita | Interchange | Josh Papalii |
Fullback: Matt Moylan vs Darius Boyd
The great NSW spine experiment begins with debutant Moylan at the back. The Penrith custodian oozes class, but Darius Boyd is the country’s number one No.1 for a reason.
Queensland.
Wing: Blake Ferguson vs Corey Oates
A couple of blokes who both stand at 192 centimetres and weigh in at more than 100 kilograms each; it’s a long time since wing was regarded as the domain of the small, skinny bloke.
Oates has been one of the form finishers of the competition this season, but Ferguson has been here before.
NSW.
More Origin
» NSW’s impending Game 1 victory: Tomorrow’s headlines today
» Why Queensland will win
» Why NSW will win
» Origin Game 1: Expert tips and predictions
» Queensland will win Origin again and I couldn’t care less
» Five burning questions Origin 1 will answer
Centre: Michael Jennings vs Greg Inglis
While Inglis has looked tired, injured or wishing he was playing for the Broncos for much of this season, no one loves lacing up the boots for Queensland more than the man from Macksville.
Jennings always tries hard, but if Inglis finishes the match in one piece, he’ll be the better of these two.
Queensland.
Centre: Josh Morris vs Justin O’Neill
It’s not a great show of faith in O’Neill when coach Kevin Walters apparently asked Justin Hodges to come out of retirement for the series. Of course, Morris isn’t his coach’s first choice either, although given the way he puts his body on the line when wearing sky blue, quite why he wasn’t an automatic call-up is anyone’s guess.
NSW.
Wing: Josh Mansour vs Dane Gagai
Gagai’s got one game under his belt – scoring a try for Queensland in last year’s Game 3 drubbing of the Blues – while Mansour is on debut. So one hasn’t really been tested, while they other hasn’t been tested at all.
We’ll go on club form and give it to Mansour.
NSW.
Five-eighth: James Maloney vs Johnathan Thurston
Good on James Maloney for making a comeback to rugby league’s grandest stage two seasons after he last played here. Great work, and well deserved.
Thurston by the length of the straight.
Queensland.
Halfback: Adam Reynolds vs Cooper Cronk
This one is iffy, as Cronk could be scratched at the last minute – although the Blues are preparing as if he’ll play, saying the Melbourne half’s injury is in reality a Maroon mindgame.
It’ll be an entirely different game if Cronk doesn’t play, but if he’s there he gets the nod in the halfback battle.
Queensland.
Prop: Aaron Woods vs Matt Scott
Woods has been performing solidly in an often well-beaten pack for the Tigers, while Scott has continued to lead the charge for the dominant Cowboys.
Woods looks likely to be Scott’s eventual replacement in the Australian team, but the old stager hasn’t retired yet, and made the Anzac Test team on performance, not reputation.
Queensland.
Hooker: Robbie Farah vs Cameron Smith
Not so long ago this would have been a whole lot closer. But Farah is under an injury cloud, has only played a handful of games this season, and really could have been booted from this team for the in-form Michael Ennis. Meanwhile, Cameron Smith is still Cameron Smith.
Queensland.
Prop: Paul Gallen vs Nate Myles
All the fire in this match-up really went out the window when the pair did that (very worthwhile) ad for the NRL.
Myles’ form has been well down for a number of seasons now, whereas Gallen forced his way back into the Australian side this season, and won man of the match honours in the Anzac Test.
NSW.
Second row: Boyd Cordner vs Matt Gillett
Gillett has been a mainstay of the Queensland side for years, although after being dropped from the Aussie Test side last season, he was left hoping the Queensland selectors would pick him on reputation rather than form. Sure he came back this year, but then Cordner was injured.
Even with limited game time, Cordner was a dead-cert for Laurie Daley’s Game 1 side. He’s got the wood here.
NSW.
Second row: Josh Jackson vs Sam Thaiday
Jackson played three games for NSW last season and was never in doubt about being back in the side this year. But Thaiday has played 25 games for Queensland in ten seasons, and the only time doubt has hovered over his selection was when punching was banned from the game.
Queensland.
Lock: Greg Bird vs Corey Parker
The elder statseman and gentleman of the game, or the man who’s spent more time suspended by the judiciary than any other current player – and is no stranger to a set of handcuffs either.
Parker deserves respect (don’t tell Klemmer I said that), but Bird plays on the Gold Coast because there are better odds of smashing a Queenslander every day when you’re surrounded by them.
NSW.
Interchange: Dylan Walker vs Michael Morgan
Walker managed a handful of games as the Australian bench utility a few seasons ago. Then Morgan came along, and now he wears the green and gold number 14.
Queensland.
Interchange: James Tamou vs Josh McGuire
McGuire earned an Australian jersey based on his strong early-season form for the Broncos, coming on the back of two strong performances in maroon last year.
Tamou is often accused of going missing in big games, but continues to be selected for both NSW and Australia, and when he fires he is among the best props in the game.
NSW.
Interchange: David Klemmer vs Aidan Guerra
Guerra translates to ‘war’, but Klemmer means war… on Queenslanders. The rugby league love-hate child of Gorden Tallis and Mark O’Meley (try not to picture it), the only way Klemmer doesn’t come out on top here is if he’s sent off. If it comes to that, he may be sent to The Hague for war crimes.
NSW.
Interchange: Andrew Fifita vs Josh Papalii
A powerhouse wrecking ball with a serious aggressive streak. Wait… Which one?
Even.
Overall
NSW 8.5
Queensland 8.5
So… Flip a coin?
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