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After three years of seeing the Hawthorn Hawks lay waste to all before them it’s kind of an odd feeling to have a season of AFL football where there’s not a clear favourite for the flag.
We have what looks like a clear top eight at the moment but none of these teams could really be considered the premiership front runners just yet. While they all have strengths, they all also have flaws.
In the end the 2016 premiership race looks likely to be decided by which teams can overcome or cover for their flaws, and which fail to do so.
Starting from the top of the table, my own side North Melbourne sit in first with a 10-1 record, but would have to be one of the most under-respected 10-1 teams in history.
I’m not the type to make long winded pronouncements of the flaws of the team I support, but if you’re looking for some good criticisms of North, my good mate Cam Rose is more than happy to supply.
Probably the biggest concern for North in comparison to the other teams near the pointy end of the ladder is a lack of experience beyond that of the preliminary finals of the last two years.
Brent Harvey is the only premiership player in the side, and the fact that his medal was won against the Carlton Blues should give you an indication of just how long ago that happened.
If North come up against a Sydney, Hawthorn or Geelong in the big dance – assuming they make it there to begin with – they’ll have to contend with the fact that the bulk of the opposition side has been-there-done-that experience on the big stage, and they don’t.
There’s no quick fix for that, except for North’s players to trust in their own maturity and experience, two qualities that are in abundance for the Kangaroos.
Coming in at second on the ladder right now are the Sydney Swans and they’re as hard a team to find a flaw in as any.
They’ve lost just two games this year and they were both by very small margins – 10 points to Adelaide and a single point to Richmond. That said, they’ve had a few so-so performances against lower-ranked sides where they didn’t dominate the way you’d expect them to.
Probably the biggest concern for the Swans is their reliance on a specific group of stars and the fact that their side is currently playing a number of inexperienced youngsters.
There’s nothing wrong with playing youngsters of course because that is how teams are built up, still, when getting into the end game of the season you want to know players are going to hold up under finals-level heat.
Their all-star midfield brigade boasting Luke Parker, Josh P Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and others, as well as superstar forward Lance Franklin, are some truly awesome players who they know will stand up come finals time.
But can they be as confident on say Callum Mills, George Hewett, or Zak Jones? Perhaps. Perhaps not.
Third on the ladder right now are the Cats who two weeks ago were being billed as the flag favourites but in the fortnight since have dropped consecutive games to Collingwood and Carlton, both sides outside the eight.
They have the GWS Giants this week and North Melbourne to follow, not a great pair of fixtures for a side looking to get back into the winners circle.
The main problem as I see it for the Cats is their forward line. There simply aren’t enough reliable options for goal and their inaccuracy across the board is telling.
Tom Hawkins has been productive as usual and Shane Kersten and Steven Motlop were helping him out a lot in the early part of the season. However Motlop has kicked just three goals in the past two weeks and Kersten none.
For the Cats to contend, they need the likes of Kersten and Motlop to become reliable contributors both when the going is easy and when it’s tough. The possible return of Mitch Clark in the near future could also prove a boon.
Rounding out the top four are the GWS Giants, a seriously impressive team who have many of us terrified of a future time where grand final day will for many years be dominated by orange confetti.
The Giants have just about everything you could want in a team, their strength being an incredibly deep midfield that has plenty of skill and speed.
However the flaw for them in 2016 is their lack of maturity and experience. Yes, the team is rapidly gaining both of these qualities, but they’re still some way off having real premiership credentials.
It seems likely that at some point during their expected finals campaign, they will be found wanting in this regard. That said, if they can overcome this concern, the world is their oyster.
The West Coast Eagles are an easy target – they’ve got an impressive 7-3 record, but all seven of their wins came against sides outside of the eight, and all three of their losses against side inside the eight.
Not only that, but their losses were all seriously poor efforts, where they were very comfortably beaten by the Hawks, Swans and Cats. A lot of players in the side just seem to have regressed a bit after stellar 2015 campaigns, as is common, and they look off the pace.
Their advantage at their home ground is significant – one would think to make it to the final showdown this year they’re going to have to get a top two spot so that they can blow through their finals series at home, and that just doesn’t look likely.
The Western Bulldogs share their concerns with Geelong and the Giants. They’re a very young team with limited finals experience, and they’re also lacking a bit in options going forward.
The absence of Stewart Crameri due to a doping ban and an injury earlier in the season to Tory Dickson has left their forward a bit short of the quality unit it was in 2015. They’ve had some troubled with inaccuracy also.
Hawthorn are a team I talked about extensively last week. The short of it is that they’re yet to find solutions for the absences of Jarryd Roughead and Brian Lake.
And finally, the Adelaide Crows. They’ve got the best forward line in the league by my reckoning and are kicking more goals per game than any other side. But their flaw at the moment is a lack of depth in the midfield.
While they’ve covered for him well, they’re still missing Patrick Dangerfield. Brad Crouch hasn’t come on as expected this year, but if he finds form it could be the missing piece they need for a charge up the table and towards the flag.
So there you have it – the flaws in all of the top eight teams. Who will find answers for the questions that plague their premiership chances – and who will not?
Only time will tell, but one thing we do know is that a top eight this even is bound to make for a thrilling finals series come September, and I for one look forward to seeing how it pans out.