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2016 US Open: Draw analysis and predictions

The Williams sisters. (AP Photo/Tim Ireland)
Roar Guru
27th August, 2016
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The men’s and women’s draws for the 2016 US Open have been released and it has produced some interesting first round matches as well as some potential clashes to watch out for over the next fortnight.

The men
The top two seeds, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, are on opposite sides of the draw which means they cannot face each other until the final, neither can Rafael Nadal or Stan Wawrinka who are seeded third and fourth respectively.

Djokovic, for whom this will be his first match since his early exit at the Rio Olympics, will face a tough start to his title defence when he comes up against Jerzy Janowicz in his first match before potentially coming up against the Czech Republic’s Jiri Vesely in the second round.

Vesely is one of five men who have beaten Djokovic this year, and the first to beat him in a completed match (Djokovic was forced to retire in his quarter-final match against Feliciano Lopez in Dubai in February due to an eye infection), doing so at the Monte Carlo Masters in April.

The Djoker’s first seeded threat could come in the form of Martin Klizan, who faces two-time semi-finalist Mikhail Youzhny in the first round, while either 13th seed Richard Gasquet or 20th seed John Isner loom as his fourth round opponent.

Should the top seed reach the quarter-finals as expected, either rival Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or 2014 champion Marin Cilic, who lost to Djokovic in the semi-finals last year, could await.

Fourth seed Rafael Nadal leads the second quarter of the draw and he may have to beat two of his fellow seeded countrymen to reach the quarter-finals in New York for the first time since winning the title in 2013.

The Spaniard starts against Uzbekistan’s Denis Istomin and could face French Open quarter-finalist Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the third round and recent Olympics quarter-finalist Roberto Bautista-Agut in the fourth.

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Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic and the always-entertaining Gael Monfils, twice a quarter-finalist at Flushing Meadows, loom as the 30-year-old’s potential quarter-final opponents should he get this far.

Moving down to the bottom half of the draw now, which is led by French Open semi-finalist Dominic Thiem, two-times Grand Slam champion and world number two Andy Murray.

Thiem will start his US Open campaign against Australia’s John Millman and could face Novak Djokovic’s Wimbledon conqueror, Sam Querrey, in the third round.

There is also the chance that Millman could face Ricardis Berankis in the second round, which would pit the pair together for the second time in a month, after the Australian dealt the Lithuanian a double bagel at the Rio Olympics.

Also in this section of the draw is 11th seed David Ferrer and former champion Juan Martin del Potro, who has been granted a wildcard into the main draw, with the pair set to meet in the third round.

In the sixth section, there is the potential for fireworks with Australia’s top two ranked men, Nick Kyrgios and Bernard Tomic, on course for what could be an explosive All-Australian third round showdown.

During Australia’s Davis Cup tie against the United States back in March, Tomic complained that Kyrgios faked illness when the fact of the matter was that the 21-year-old was genuinely ill and was formally ruled out by officials.

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If Kyrgios gets to round four, then Stan Wawrinka could await.

It would be the pair’s first match in North America since Kyrgios infamously made some distasteful remarks towards Wawrinka’s girlfriend, Croatian tennis player Donna Vekic, by suggesting that Thanasi Kokkinakis had an affair with her.

There have been two meetings since then, with Wawrinka winning after Kyrgios was forced to retire in Dubai due to a back injury in February, and the Australian returning serve with a tight straight sets win in Madrid in May.

Wawrinka himself faces a tough first round match against Spain’s Fernando Verdasco, who knocked Rafael Nadal out in the first round of the Australian Open back in January.

Moving down to the bottom quarter now, where Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray are projected to face off in the quarter-finals.

Nishikori starts off against German veteran Benjamin Becker, who a decade ago sent Andre Agassi into retirement right here in New York, with 12th seed David Goffin looming as his major obstacle to a final eight showdown against 2012 champion and two-time Olympic gold medallist Murray.

The Scot, seeking a fourth Grand Slam title, faces a very tough opener against the Czech Republic’s Lukas Rosol, the man who famously knocked Rafael Nadal out of Wimbledon in 2012.

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The 29-year-old could then face Marcel Granollers in the second round, 30th seed Gilles Simon in the third and either 16th seed Feliciano Lopez or 2013 junior champion Borna Coric in the fourth.

Barring any major upsets in the men’s draw, the quarter-finals onwards could look like this:

Quarter-finals
Novak Djokovic (SRB) versus Marin Cilic (CRO)
Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus Milos Raonic (CAN)
Dominic Thiem (AUT) versus Stan Wawrinka (SUI)
Kei Nishikori (JPN) versus Andy Murray (GBR)

Semi-finals
Novak Djokovic (SRB) versus Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Stan Wawrinka (SUI) versus Andy Murray (GBR)

Final
Novak Djokovic (SRB) versus Stan Wawrinka (SUI)

The women
The world’s top two women, Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber, are on opposite sides of the draw and thus they cannot face each other until the final at the earliest, neither can Garbine Muguruza or Agnieszka Radwanska who are seeded third and fourth respectively.

Williams, who must at least reach the semi-finals to have any chance of keeping her world number one ranking, faces a tough opener in the form of two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist Ekaterina Makarova, who has slid down the rankings this year.

Until Kerber at this year’s Australian Open, Makarova was the only left-hander to have beaten Williams at a Grand Slam tournament, doing so in the fourth round of the 2012 Australian Open.

That denied the American a quarter-final showdown against Maria Sharapova, and indirectly cleared the path for Victoria Azarenka to win the first of her two major titles Down Under.

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But that’s not all – the 34-year-old could then face former world number one Ana Ivanovic in the third round, in what would be their first major meeting since the Serb scored a stunning upset win at the 2014 Australian Open, and her conqueror in the 2011 final, Samantha Stosur, in the fourth round.

Stosur herself faces a tough opening match in the form of Italy’s Camila Giorgi.

Should Williams reach the quarter-finals, then any of Carla Suarez Navarro, Jelena Jankovic, Daria Gavrilova, Lucie Safarova or fifth seed Simona Halep could await.

Gavrilova, Australia’s second-highest ranked woman only behind Samantha Stosur, faces a tough opener against last year’s French Open finalist Safarova, who has slid down the rankings this year after poor form and injury; get past that and Halep, whom she beat in Rome back in May, could await in the second.

In the second quarter, fourth seed Agnieszka Radwanska faces a tough path if she is to reach the quarter-finals in New York for the first time.

The 27-year-old starts against American qualifier Jessica Pegula and could then face Laura Robson, who beat the Pole in Madrid back in 2013, in the second round, and then either France’s Caroline Garcia or Canada’s Eugenie Bouchard in the third.

Dutchwoman Kiki Bertens or Switzerland’s Timea Bacsinszky then loom as potential fourth round opponents for Radwanska.

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Should the Pole reach the final eight, either sixth seed and two-time US Open champion Venus Williams, or in-form Czech Karolina Pliskova could await.

Pliskova, who is in hot form having beaten Garbine Muguruza and Angelique Kerber on her way to the title in Cincinnati last week, starts against American wildcard Sofia Kenin with Russia’s Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looming as the major obstacle to a fourth-round showdown against 36-year-old Williams.

Moving down to the third quarter of the draw now, and there will be an American in the third round with there being two all-American matches, one of them pitting Madison Keys and Alison Riske against each other.

Also in this section is 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, who starts off against former French Open champion Francesca Schiavone with unseeded two-time US Open finalist Caroline Wozniacki looming as her second round opponent.

The leading name in this quarter of the draw is third seed and French Open champion Garbine Muguruza, who faces a possible rematch against Monica Puig in the third round.

Puig, who narrowly snuck into the seedings after the withdrawal of Sloane Stephens, chopsticked the Spaniard en route to the Olympic gold medal, the first for any man or woman from her country.

British 13th seed Johanna Konta, who reached the fourth round last year, and Belinda Bencic, who earlier this year broke into the top ten but has since dropped to 26th due to injury, are also in this section of the draw.

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The bottom quarter of the draw is anchored by reigning Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber, who like Serena Williams faces a tough road if she is to not only challenge the American for the world number one ranking, but also reach the final.

The German starts against Slovenia’s Polona Hercog with Alize Cornet, Italian 27th seed Sara Errani, two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, last year’s finalist Roberta Vinci and former Australian Open finalist Dominika Cibulkova all looming as major obstacles to the 28-year-old making a deep run at Flushing Meadows.

In summary, both Williams and Kerber face tough roads if they are to face off in a Grand Slam final for the third time this year, which if it eventuates will also decide who leaves New York with the world number one ranking.

Barring any major upsets in the women’s draw, the quarter-finals onwards could look like this:

Quarter-finals
Serena Williams (USA) versus Simona Halep (ROU)
Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) versus Venus Williams (USA)
Madison Keys (USA) versus Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
Roberta Vinci (ITA) versus Angelique Kerber (GER)

Semi-finals
Serena Williams (USA) versus Venus Williams (USA)
Garbine Muguruza (ESP) versus Angelique Kerber (GER)

Final
Serena Williams (USA) versus Angelique Kerber (GER)

The US Open gets underway this Tuesday morning from 1:00am (AEST), with the men’s top half and women’s bottom half all in action. The men’s bottom half and the women’s top half will start on Wednesday morning (AEST).

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