After 25 glorious rounds of rugby league so far in 2016, we’re down to nine teams eligible for finals footy coming into the last round of the regular season.
Who’s playing who? Can my team make top four? Who can they overtake in the standings? What’s the worst they can do? We take a look at all nine team’s final round situations.
» The Roar’s complete guide to the 2016 NRL Finals
Ranked in order of their ladder position coming into the final round.
Current position: 1st – 40 points
Last Round Opponent: Cronulla Sharks (2nd)
Best Possible Finish: 1st
The Storm are in s top of the table clash with the Sharks this week with a winner takes all stipulation. A win or draw will be enough to see them take the minor premiership for the second (official) time in the club’s history.
Worst Possible Finish: 2nd
It’s hard to pick a winner out of this one with arguably the two best sides in the competition, hence their placings at this point of the season.
At worst, Melbourne will go into the first week of the finals against the Raiders with a second chance should they lose.
Current position: 2nd – 39 points
Last Round Opponent: Melbourne Storm (1st)
Best Possible Finish: 1st
It’s been a record-breaking year for the Sharks in their pursuit for a maiden NRL premiership. They’re the other half of the aforementioned 1 vs 2 battle for the top spot heading into the first week of the finals. A win would earn them the club’s third ever Minor Premiership.
Worst Possible Finish: 3rd
The Sharks dominated for so much of the season but slipped (some say choked) late to fall behind the Storm despite a record winning streak. A loss against this weekend would see them face the Raiders in the 2 vs 3 first week fixture regardless of whether or not Canberra win their game.
Current position: 3rd – 37 points
Last Round Opponent: Wests Tigers (9th)
Best Possible Finish: 2nd
The Raiders have worked themselves all the way up to third after a huge second half to the season. They have the potential to take second spot on points difference with a win over the Wests Tigers, if the Sharks lose of course.
Worst Possible Finish: 3rd
Canberra are at their worst possible finish right now. They’ve created an unassailable five-point gap back to the Cowboys in fourth. At worst they will finish three points in front of the Cowboys, Broncos or Bulldogs, but more on that later. They’ll be through into Week 2 no matter what.
Current position: 4th – 32 points
Last Round Opponent: Gold Coast Titans (8th)
Best Possible Finish: 4th
Last years premiers can’t advance any higher than fourth, but they are in a very tight race to maintain that spot. They have the advantage of facing the eighth-placed Titans at home this week and can realistically hold onto their current position with a one point win, such is their superior points difference over the chasing sides (+113 better than next best Brisbane).
Worst Possible Finish: 7th
One of three teams on 32 points coming into the round, with the Panthers just two points further back, they’ll need a win over the Titans to make sure they at least get a second chance come finals time. It’s a slippery slope for the Cowboys if they suffer a loss, with the (albeit unlikely) possibility to fall as far as seventh.
Current position: 5th – 32 points
Last Round Opponent: Sydney Roosters (15th)
Best Possible Finish: 4th
Brisbane’s fall from the top after a firing start to the season sees them battling it out in the middle of the eight rather than the top. They’re in good stead to challenge the Cowboys for fourth place if North Queensland lose of course. Brisbane have the struggling 15th placed Roosters for the final round game, but should be weary of a side with nothing to lose.
Worst Possible Finish: 7th
Similar to the Cowboys, the Broncos have a lot of potential to slide the wrong way down the ladder if they miss the two points this week. They’re unlikely to lose to the Roosters at home, and even if they did, the Panthers are too far off mathematically to realistically drop them as far as seventh.
Current position: 6th – 32 points
Last Round Opponent: South Sydney Rabbitohs (13th)
Best Possible Finish: 4th
Bulldogs are the third team on 32 points coming into the final round, but their for and against isn’t in their favour. They need losses to the Cowboys and the Broncos if they want that top four safety net, plus a win of their own over the Rabbitohs.
Worst Possible Finish: 7th
The Bulldogs sit two points ahead of the seventh-placed Panthers, but with a points difference only six greater than Penrith, a loss to the Rabbitohs and a Panthers win would almost certainly see the two sides switch places.
Current position: 7th – 30 points
Last Round Opponent: Manly Sea Eagles (12th)
Best Possible Finish: 4th
Penrith can mathematically still make the top four, but they need a 143 point turnaround with the Cowboys and rely on the Bulldogs, Broncos and North Queensland all losing. More realistically, their difference (+70) is just six behind the Bulldogs. If Canterbury lose to the Bunnies and the Panthers can beat Manly at home, then they’ll at least jump one spot into sixth.
Worst Possible Finish: 7th
Luckily for the Panthers, to a degree, they’re unassailable in seventh spot, sitting three points clear of the Titans, meaning at worst they’ll have to battle sixth place in the first round of the finals.
Current position: 8th – 27 points
Last Round Opponent: North Queensland Cowboys (4th)
Best Possible Finish: 8th
Gold Coast can’t do any better than eighth, sitting three points back from Penrith, but are right under the pump to keep the last finals spot. A win against the Cowboys will cause damage for North Queensland, while securing their own finals berth at the same time.
Worst Possible Finish: 9th
The Tigers are just one point behind them and they have to play a fourth-placed Cowboys side looking to go back to back. They might be relying on a Tigers loss more than anything to get themselves through to the middle of September.
Current position: 9th – 26 points
Last Round Opponent: Canberra Raiders (3rd)
Best Possible Finish: 8th
The Tigers can overtake the Titans with a win, but they face the on-fire Canberra Raiders for the final round game of the season. It’s do-or-die for Jason Taylor’s men, with not even a draw being enough to sneak through.
Worst Possible Finish: 9th
It’s all or nothing. A loss to the more fancied Raiders will spell the end of their 2016 campaign, plain and simple.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
Cronulla great Paul Gallen couldn't even get on board with this highly controversial sin bin.
The NRL’s crackdown on kick pressure has officially jumped the shark after a crucial call went Cronulla’s way with Storm star Harry Grant ending…
To paraphrase Bill Woodfull, there were two teams out there at Shark Park on Sunday but only one of them was playing wet-weather footy.…
Nicho Hynes has not quite made an undeniable case to be Nathan Cleary’s halves partner for NSW but he should be the first five-eighth…
There is only one way for Cronulla to shake off their reputation for being flat-track bullies. They are off to an impressive start in…
Canterbury's board have vowed to "vigorously defend" themselves against a $4 million civil case from former player Jackson Topine, amid claims he suffered a…
