Wow! 20 races down, one to go, and while the championship isn’t as close as I want, at least there’s a question whether Lewis Hamilton could win from 12 points down.
I started off saying that we had 21 races, so I just wanted to touch on the fact that this season has been incredibly long.
F1 tends to believe the bigger the season the better the racing, but I’m getting sick of it.
This season just keeps on dragging on, and it’s one of those issues that F1 concentrates too much on, rather than the big issues – like the fact that so many tracks are under scrutiny for beyond 2017 as a result of poor racing.
But aside from that, let’s have a proper look into what Hamilton requires to win the title.
Let’s face it, he’s going to need a lot. The equation for the 2016 title to be Hamilton’s is as follows:
Hamilton first vs Rosberg fourth
Hamilton second vs Rosberg sixth
Hamilton third vs Rosberg eighth
Hamilton fourth means Rosberg wins the title
So yes, the odds aren’t especially high, but let’s just consider the factors that could make the tides turn in Hamilton’s favour, thus giving him the championship.
Firstly, the Red Bulls or Ferraris could very possibly excel at the circuit, given its high downforce requiring layout. On the other hand, Rosberg wouldn’t let them past by any stretch of the imagination. He knows he can take it easy, but can’t lose positions to both Red Bulls.
Secondly, Rosberg could crash, or have a car failure. Yes, it’s a long shot, but you never really know.
Cheekily, Button said in an interview recently that he would accept bribes from Hamilton to take out Rosberg when he was overtaking him! No, it doesn’t seem likely for a crash or failure to happen, but if it did and Hamilton won the championship, I would honestly call that fair after what was a very compromised season for Lewis.
Last, Rosberg could be off the pace. He could have a car issue all weekend or some kind of issue with his setup that could greatly compromise him – but that’s a long shot again.
To Hamilton fans, don’t get your hopes up. Everything I’ve listed has been highly unlikely, so don’t expect it to happen.
To Rosberg fans, expect a boring race from your number one man. He’ll most likely be cruising around in second place, conserving as best he can.
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