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Australia vs Pakistan: Third ODI preview

Pakistan bowler Mohammad Amir (2nd right) celebrates the wicket of Australia's Matthew Wade on day 2 of the first Test match between Australia and Pakistan at the Gabba in Brisbane, Friday, Dec. 16, 2016. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Expert
18th January, 2017
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Pakistan finally got their first victory on a disastrous tour of Australia at the Melbourne Cricket Ground and will be looking to move ahead in the one-day series when the teams head west.

After the first ODI in Brisbane where the tourists were knocked over for just 176 – following a 3-0 drubbing in the Test series – you could have been excused for thinking they were already mentally on the plane heading home.

Yet despite the first four matches of the tour going well and truly against Pakistan, there had been a few stunning individual performances such as Azhar Ali’s double century in the Boxing Day Test and Asad Shafiq’s century leading Pakistan to 450 chasing 490 in Brisbane.

Asad Shafiq saluting as he leaves the ground

Though there was a refreshed looking top order for the Aussies in Melbourne, it was the same result as the first match early on as they won the toss, batted, and crashed to be in a precarious position.

In the first match, it was 5 for 78 before Matthew Wade and Glenn Maxwell built a big partnership to help Australia to a competitive total.

Yet in Melbourne, it was 5 for 128, 6 for 193 and eventually all out for 220, as the tail failed to wag and guide the hosts to any sort of total they could realistically hope to defend, even against an out of sorts Pakistan on the gigantic MCG.

In reply, it didn’t take long for Pakistan to get going, with the tourists eventually chasing the score with six wickets in hand.

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It was a well controlled and constructed chase by Pakistan, two phrases which haven’t often been used when talking about them on this tour.

Mohammad Hafeez, who took over the captaincy from an injured Azhar Ali, promoted himself to the top of the order and batted fantastically for his 72.

No one seriously went on with their start and got a big score, but Pakistan didn’t let themselves lose wickets in bunches, with only one partnership being less than 30 runs.

The worrying sign for the Aussies is that their top order collapse has happened twice in a row and they simply don’t seem to be able to play Mohammad Amir and his colleagues when they have the new ball. Even though David Warner, Steve Smith and Usman Khawaja had no problem doing so during the Test series.

For Australia to turn it around, they must make bigger first innings scores. That starts with the batsmen at the top of the order, who must look to take pressure off the aggressive and therefore vulnerable middle order.

Meanwhile, Pakistan still won’t be happy with their performance as there are areas to improve.

The chase should have been over a long time before it was in Melbourne, and that’s where someone going on to reach a century while others play aggressively – but not stupidly – becomes key.

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Last five meetings

January 15, 2017 – Pakistan defeated Australia by 6 wickets at Melbourne
January 13, 2017 – Australia defeated Pakistan by 92 runs at Brisbane
March 20, 2015 (world cup quarter-final) – Australia defeated Pakistan by 6 wickets at Adelaide Oval
October 12, 2014 – Australia defeated Pakistan by 1 run at Abu Dhabi
October 10, 2014 – Australia defeated Pakistan by 5 wickets at Dubai

Last five series

2014 – Australia defeated Pakistan 3-0 in United Arab Emirates
2012 – Australia defeated Pakistan 2-1 in United Arab Emirates
2010 – Australia defeated Pakistan 5-0 in Australia
2009 – Australia defeated Pakistan 3-2 in United Arab Emirates
2002 – Pakistan defeated Australia 2-1 in Australia

Remaining series fixtures (all times AEDT)

4th match: January 22 at Sydney Cricket Ground (2:20pm)
5th match: January 26 at Adelaide Oval (2:20pm)

More changes for the Aussies
Australia made a couple of changes for the second ODI at the MCG.

Among them, Chris Lynn was ruled out with a neck injury in Melbourne, and replaced by Usman Khawaja, who was promptly pushed to the top of the order, as Travis Head made way, slipping down to number five.

Whether that was the smartest option for the form of Head is another question altogether, but results on the scoreboard will point in the direction that it hampered the South Australian.

More changes will occur in the third ODI, with Mitch Marsh out for the rest of the series through injury, and the selectors deciding to give spearhead Mitchell Starc a much-needed rest.

With the team named on Wednesday morning, Peter Handscomb will be given a spot ahead of Marcus Stoinis, who had been drafted into the squad. While Billy Stanlake gets another opportunity – the hosts again taking four quicks, with Adam Zampa sitting out.

The Stanlake inclusion will generate some discussion and rightfully so. After coming down with a possible bout of heat stroke in the first game, he left the field after only three overs and didn’t return to the attack.

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It’s not hard to understand why the selectors have gone with four quicks at the WACA, but there is a bit of a feeling that Zampa might be on the outer, particularly given the number of overs part-timer Head has bowled.

Australian batsman Peter Handscomb

Hafeez at the top of the Pakistan order might be a masterstroke
Though it seems as if Hafeez is only at the top of the Pakistan order while Azhar Ali is injured, there is a little inkling that he should remain there.

Ali is the captain of the side and so it’s not going to happen, but Hafeez produced a controlled innings and led the run chase from the top on Sunday, batting almost all the way to the end and allowing other batsmen to get aggressive around him.

While Ali plays that role, he simply doesn’t keep the strike rate at a reasonable enough level, soaking up too many dot balls.

Hafeez worked the singles well and ended up with a strike rate of almost 70, which was just about perfect for what the chase needed.

A player with Hafeez’s level of experience is only going to help Sharjeel Khan along as well.

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There have been calls for Ali to not be at the top of the order – or anywhere for that matter – in the one-day side.

So if Hafeez fires again, there could be a very interesting period coming up for the tourists once Ali is right to go again.

David Warner can’t be far from a score
It’s rare that David Warner will fail twice in as many innings, but that’s exactly what has happened this series.

His form since the one-day series against New Zealand had been simply stunning, so maybe this was always coming, but it still comes as a surprise to anyone who was watching the controlled aggression he was batting with while effortlessly peeling off centuries.

Though Amir has been giving him trouble with the white ball, Warner has always enjoyed batting at the WACA, so he could be in for a big one here.

Australian batsman David Warner leaves the field

What can Billy Stanlake serve up this time?
It was always going to be the case that Stanlake would get another opportunity whether the bowling attack suffered a loss of form, injuries, or none of the above.

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Starc was always going to be rested at some stage, and potentially Hazlewood will get another rest before the series is out after six test matches and a one-day series throughout the summer.

The tour of India in February will be a much higher priority than the rest of this series, so the opportunities for Stanlake will probably not finish here if he puts in a good enough performance – particularly if Australia continue with the four-pronged pace attack.

The question though is what can Stanlake serve up in Perth? Given he bowls with some good pace and bounce, the WACA pitch should assist him and he could be dangerous here.

Mohammad Amir’s impact with the new ball will be crucial for the tourists
If the last two matches haven’t proved it, then this one will. On the bouncy deck in Perth, the way Amir bowls will become even more crucial.

While Pakistan has reduced the Aussie top order to rubble in the last couple of games, it’s absolutely crucial it happens again.

Once a batsman is in at Perth, the potential to go big and make a massive score is huge. Having a team three or four wickets down at the end of the powerplay or just after, is probably the only way to fast track a victory. It puts pressure on the rest of the order which in Australia’s case, as we saw in Melbourne, has plenty of cracks.

Pakistan's Mohammad Amir

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Key game information

First ball: 2:20pm (AEDT) – 11:20am (AWST)
Venue: W.A.C.A Ground, Perth
TV: Live, Nine Network
Online: Cricket.com.au live pass
Betting: Australia $1.27, Pakistan $3.82
Overall Record: Played 95, Australia 59, Pakistan 32, tied 1, no result 3
Last five: Australia 4, Pakistan 1

Likely Teams

Australia
1. David Warner
2. Usman Khawaja
3. Steve Smith (c)
4. Travis Head
5. Peter Handscomb
6. Glenn Maxwell
7. Matthew Wade (wk)
8. James Faulkner
9. Pat Cummins
10. Josh Hazlewood
11. Billy Stanlake

Rested – Mitchell Starc
Rest of squad – Adam Zampa, Marcus Stoinis
Injured – Mitchell Marsh, Chris Lynn

Pakistan
1. Mohammad Hafeez (c)
2. Sharjeel Khan
3. Babar Azam
4. Asad Shafiq
5. Shoaib Malik
6. Umar Akmal
7. Mohammad Rizwan
8. Imad Wasim
9. Mohammad Amir
10. Hasan Ali
11. Junaid Khan

Rest of squad – Wahab Riaz, Rahat Ali
Injured – Azhar Ali

Hours of play

Start (AEDT) Finish (AEDT) Start (AWST) Finish (AWST)
1st Innings 2:20 PM 5:50 PM 11:20 AM 2:50 PM
Break 5:50 PM 6:35 PM 2:50 PM 3:35 PM
2nd Innings 6:35 PM 10:05 PM 3:35 PM 7:05 PM

*Times are subject to change due to over rates, game situation, weather

Prediction

With Australia stinging from their recent loss and opting for a pace-heavy attack at the WACA, it should be expected they will hit back.

Mohammad Amir will enjoy bowling at the WACA though, and after taking wickets in Melbourne, he will do so again here, helping reduce Australia to a low score.

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Still, Australia has the depth, and David Warner is due for some runs.

Australia to win comfortably and go ahead in the series.

Don’t forget The Roar will have a live blog of each and every day from the summer of cricket as well as highlights throughout the match.

Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde

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