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New Zealand vs Australia: Second ODI preview and prediction

Who will be the next generation of the Aussie cricket team? (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
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31st January, 2017
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Some Marcus Stoinis magic almost gave Australia an unlikely victory in Auckland, but they will need a much better team performance if the series is to be kept alive against a dominant New Zealand outfit when the teams head to Napier.

It would have been an ugly result for the Australians in the first match if not for Stoinis, who stole the show and earned himself a standing ovation from the parochial Kiwi crowd after three wickets and a massive century in just his second ODI – the first Australian to achieve the all-round feat.

Stoinis came in with the tourists in a seemingly hopeless position – 5-54 chasing 286 – but steadied himself and set about building partnerships, firstly with James Faulkner and then Pat Cummins, before completely taking over the innings on his own.

Mitchell Starc scored just three in a 30-run partnership before Josh Hazlewood made a 26-minute diamond duck, Stoinis taking himself past the run-a-ball mark as he added 54 from 24.

While Australia ended up on 280, going down by just six runs, the result is a lot closer than the game was, as Stoinis ended up with 146.

Earlier in the day, it was Martin Guptill and Neil Broom who stole the show for the Black Caps.

Martin Guptill

There were points throughout the innings where it looked like New Zealand weren’t going to end up with a fantastic score, but on the back of a Guptill’s 61 and Broom’s 73, along with James Neesham’s big-hitting 48, they made 286.

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Even into the last over it didn’t look that good, as Trent Boult hit a couple of bombs to finish with 16 from just seven balls – in the end, it made all the difference.

Stoinis was again the hero for Australia, being the pick of the bowlers with 3-49 from his ten overs.

While Hazlewood was economical, with 1-48 from his ten, none of the Australian bowlers really did a lot of damage, although Travis Head finished with 1-21 from five, with skipper Aaron Finch deciding to limit Head’s overs and not play Adam Zampa.

As mentioned, Australia quickly collapsed to 5-54, Shaun Marsh and Glenn Maxwell the only two in the top six to go past double figures, before Stoinis came to the crease and hit 11 sixes during his unbeaten innings.

It all ended in an anti-climax as Hazlewood was run out at the non-striker’s end trying to back up, but for an outplayed team, a six-run losing margin wasn’t bad at all.

Nonetheless, the only obvious thing to come out of Auckland is that Australia must improve or they will be put to the sword.

New Zealand are a very strong team playing at home, as they proved in the 2015 World Cup and in every series since. Simply put, you must be on your game to beat the Black Caps and Australia weren’t during the first match.

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Given Australia are understrength, missing Steve Smith and David Warner, it’s not the biggest of surprises that their batting didn’t immediately stand up, but this time around there are no excuses.

History

Last five meetings
January 30, 2017 – New Zealand won by 6 runs at Eden Park, New Zealand
December 9, 2016 – Australia won by 117 runs at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
December 6, 2016 – Australia won by 116 runs at Manuka Oval, Canberra
December 4, 2016 – Australia won by 68 runs at Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
February 8, 2016 – New Zealand won by 55 runs at Seddon Park, Hamilton

Last five series
2016 – Australia defeated New Zealand 3-0 (in Australia)
2016 – New Zealand defeated Australia 2-1 (in New Zealand)
2015 – New Zealand defeated Australia 1-0 (World Cup)
2011 – Australia defeated New Zealand 1-0 (World Cup)
2010 – Australia defeated New Zealand 3-2 (in New Zealand)

Can Marcus Stoinis shine again?
Look, I’ll be honest – I’m not the biggest Stoinis fan. Like most viewers, I thought the game was already over when he made his way to the crease at No.7.

That isn’t meant to be a knock on Stoinis though – Don Bradman batting from that position would still have most people backing New Zealand to get the job done.

What Stoinis did in Auckland was make his breakthrough, but it’s the beginning of a long process. Cementing a spot in the Aussie middle order is easier said than done, and he now needs to perform on a consistent level with both bat and ball.

Marcus Stoinis of Australia celebrates on reaching his maiden century

Can Lockie Ferguson be New Zealand’s x-factor?
Ferguson bowls with genuine pace and while he struggled on debut in Australia, he seemed to come into his own in Auckland, having also performed well against Bangladesh in ODIs.

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Coming on first change and taking 2-44 from his ten overs, with a few of those sent down against a firing Stoinis, was a strong display, but he too has to cement his spot by being consistent.

Ferguson has all the tools to become an x-factor bowler for the Kiwis, and this series is a big stepping stone to making that a reality. Expect him to put in a big performance during this second ODI.

New Zealand’s batting still needs work
New Zealand were at one point in trouble during their innings, before a couple of good partnerships guided them to a defendable score.

In the end, they needed every one of their runs, as Stoinis stole the show, but it does leave a few questions over the Black Caps’ batting and whether they can score enough runs, even at home on smaller grounds, if the Aussies play somewhere near their potential.

In Australia, Kiwi performances came down to Kane Williamson, and despite a few scores from Guptill, Broom and Neesham, this still seems the case. While it’s fair enough, because the first drop should be the best batsmen, depth in an ODI batting order is critical and there were still too many failures in Auckland.

With Guptill out for this match – more on that later – the middle and lower order must step up.

Who is going to stand up at the top of the order for Australia?
It’s scary to think that across all three formats of the game in the last three years, Smith and Warner are approaching 20 centuries each, and no one else has scored more than five.

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Aaron Finch at the top doesn’t provide a great deal of confidence, given his average of seven against New Zealand coming into the series.

Head was in good touch before he left Australia, but he played a horrendous shot in Auckland. While you don’t want to base a guy’s form on one innings when he scored a century just a few days ago, it was a baffling shot to play already a wicket down, and maybe shows the pressure this Australian side is under away from home.

Still, Head along with Shaun Marsh are probably Australia’s best hopes of getting the innings off to a reasonable start.

Marsh played well early in his innings, although getting out stumped was ordinary, before Peter Handscomb scratched around for a short-lived seven. Handscomb did have the gloves on throughout the game, but with Matthew Wade out for the rest of the series, it’s a burden he has to deal with.

It feels like the man who is going to stand up and make a big score has to come from those top four, with Glenn Maxwell not able to be relied on and Sam Heazlett, despite having a truckload of potential, only playing his second ODI.

Travis Head of Australia celebrates after scoring a century

How do the Kiwis cope without Guptill?
New Zealand’s opening batsman Martin Guptill might have had problems going on with starts when playing in Australia, and it continued into the first match of this series, but with the opener out to a hamstring strain, the question turns from why can’t he go on with it to how do the Kiwis cope without him?

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Guptill seems to have no problem making aggressive half-centuries, which he did by getting the Kiwis off to a good start with 61, but whoever comes into replace him must at least match it.

New Zealand have had issues with their batting and having good backup for Kane Williamson, so the pressure will be on for the replacement to remain aggressive at the top of the order and pile up the runs.

Pat Cummins must be better with the ball
There were high hopes for Cummins in this series, after some very strong performances in Australia during the summer against both New Zealand and Pakistan, and also for the Sydney Thunder during the Big Bash League.

Unfortunately, the quick didn’t live up to those expectations during the first game, proving to be expensive and not bowling out his ten overs, despite taking a pair of wickets – ending with 2-67 from nine overs.

He must bowl on more consistent lines and lengths and, particularly if Mitchell Starc or Josh Hazlewood are rested, he must carry the extra load if Australia are to compete.

Key Information

First ball: 12 midday (AEDT) – 2pm (NZST)
Venue: McLean Park, Napier
TV: Live, Fox Sports (Aus), Sky Sports (NZ)
Online: Foxtel Go or Foxtel Play (Aus)
Betting: Australia $1.81, New Zealand $2
Overall Record: Played 134, Australia 90, New Zealand 38, no result 6
Last five: Australia 3, New Zealand 2

Squads

New Zealand (squad)
Kane Williamson (c), Tom Blundell (wk), Trent Boult, Neil Broom, Colin de Grandhomme, Lockie Ferguson, Martin Guptill, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, Colin Munro, James Neesham, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Ross Taylor

Australia (squad)
Pat Cummins, James Faulkner, Aaron Finch, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade (wk), Adam Zampa

Hours of play

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Start (AEDT) Finish (AEDT) Start (local) Finish (local)
First innings 12 midday 3:30 PM 2:00 AM 5:30 PM
Break 3:30 PM 4:15 PM 5:30 PM 6:15 PM
Second innings 4:15 PM 7:45 PM 6:15 PM 9:45 PM

Prediction

New Zealand were the dominant force in the first game, but the Australian’s should take a little bit of heart from the performance of Stoinis. More importantly, the top order should be better for the hit, even if most of them didn’t make runs.

The Kiwis will be keen to wrap things up and rest players ahead of the impending arrival of South Africa, but the rivalry between the two sides – and pride of the Aussies – shouldn’t allow it to happen.

They might be understrength, but Australia will go to Hamilton with the series on the line.

Australia in a thriller.

The Roar will have a live blog of each and every day played by the Australian national team, as well as highlights throughout the match.

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Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde

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