The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 5

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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    We’ve got another extended week of footy in Round 5 and again there are some challenging decisions to be made – so let’s dive right into The Roar’s AFL expert tips.

    The first three matches all look fairly straightforward – Port Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide should comfortably defeat Carlton, Brisbane and Gold Coast respectively.

    It gets a little trickier from there on though. Greater Western Sydney will head into a match against Sydney as favourites for the first time, and I will tip them, but the occasion may bring out some fire from the Swans.

    After four weeks of tipping against my beloved North Melbourne I can hold out no longer, I’m tipping them to break their duck against Fremantle.

    Admittedly, it’s a Perth game and Fremantle have been in good form this past fortnight, but North have been playing good footy too and also I’m a rusted-on Roos tragic.

    On the formlines alone, Geelong should be strong favourites against St Kilda, but I reckon the Saints will knock the Cats off the top of the ladder and give them their first loss of the season.

    The only concern is that the Saints have kicked more behinds than goals in their last three matches straight – they need to fix that this week.

    Hawthorn are being tested for signs of life at the moment and I’m not optimistic we’ll discover any when they host West Coast on Sunday. Eagles by plenty.

    Toby Nankervis Richmond Tigers AFL 2017 tall

    Richmond and Melbourne is the match I wrestled with the most this week, tipping the Tigers to remain unbeaten in the end but not with any significant amount of confidence. Jordan Lewis and Max Gawn still being absent was just too much for me to ignore in this one but there’s no doubt it could go either way.

    Lastly, Anzac Day is going to be a high-stakes game, and no doubt much more competitive than it was last year. Both teams have had a decent break and that favours Essendon more than it does Collingwood, so Dons for the win.

    There are a few decent options for my lock of the week here, I’ll say Port Adelaide to get a home win on Friday night has the lowest margin of error.

    Lock of the week from the Simpsons

    Maddy Friend
    Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, North Melbourne, Geelong, West Coast, Richmond, Essendon

    Port should be too strong for Carlton, although if the Blues can put up a good showing as they have in their past few games, it could be close.

    The Bulldogs should account for Brisbane, while Adelaide will smash a Gold Coast team missing Steven May and Rory Thompson.

    GWS should beat Sydney, but if ever the Swans were going to break their duck, it’ll be in the cringe-worthily named ‘Battle of the Bridge’.

    Two weeks ago I would have said that North were shoe-ins to beat Freo, but after Freo’s last two weeks, it shapes as a close game. I’m tipping North, just.

    Geelong should get over the top of an inaccurate Saints outfit, while West Coast should easily account for the woeful Hawks (there’s a sentence I didn’t think I’d see myself write a few seasons ago).

    Richmond versus Melbourne is the match of the round – Tigers to win, but it should be a cracker of a game.

    The Anzac Day match always brings out the best in both teams, and even though the Bombers supposedly hit a wall last week, they’ll bring their best on the big stage.

    Cameron Rose
    Port Adelaide, Bulldogs, Adelaide, GWS, Fremantle, St Kilda, West Coast, Melbourne, Essendon

    It doesn’t look the hardest round on paper, but that doesn’t mean some surprises don’t lie within. With only one match between sides currently in the eight, there could be some separation to occur on the ladder.

    Port will beat Carlton, the Bulldogs will defeat the Lions, and ditto for Adelaide over Gold Coast.

    Sydney will get some players back to take on GWS, but will that be enough to turn around their form? It’s doubtful, and we must expect the Giants to continue their winning streak.

    North can beat Fremantle given they are knocking on the door for a win, but best stick to the home side in this sort of game.

    It gets interesting on Sunday. Geelong are an unconvincing 4-0, and could easily be 0-4 with a marginally harder draw (which could be said for a lot of teams, admittedly).

    St Kilda haven’t exactly impressed in their two wins either, but they will win this game with a style of play that will undo the Cats at Etihad, just as they did last season.

    I’m going to steal Josh’s lock of the week and make the Saints mine.

    Hawthorn are going worse than Fitzroy in their last season, and even West Coast’s MCG record won’t prevent an Eagles win here.

    Melbourne is the second upset I’m tipping, based on the Demons having the wood over the Tigers, and Richmond probably being due for a loss. Or, as a man that bleeds black and yellow, maybe I’m just hoping for some reverse psychology? Either way, Dees for mine.

    Essendon and Collingwood is probably the hardest match of the round to pick, particularly writing this on Wednesday night for a game on Tuesday! I’ll go with Essendon on the basis of a few more viable and in-form forward options.

    Round 5 Josh Elliott Maddy Friend Tim Lane Cam Rose The Crowd
    PA vs CAR PA PA PA PA PA
    WB vs BRI WB WB WB WB WB
    GCS vs ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE
    SYD vs GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS
    FRE vs NM NM NM FRE FRE FRE
    STK vs GEE STK GEE STK STK GEE
    HAW vs WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE
    RIC vs MEL RIC RIC RIC MEL RIC
    ESS vs COL ESS ESS COL ESS ESS
    Last week 7 5 6 7 7
    Total 23 20 22 22 24
    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (69)

    • April 20th 2017 @ 6:08am
      Swannies said | April 20th 2017 @ 6:08am | ! Report

      Swans to start their climb back into the top 4 with hard fought win over GWS. Hawks will also break their duck against West Coast leaving North on the bottom after they get blown away by Freo. Swans and Hawks do not deserve to be where they are and need to be given more respect. Richmond look set for September action which is fantastic.

      • Roar Guru

        April 20th 2017 @ 9:47am
        SportsFanGC said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:47am | ! Report

        Swans and Hawks do not deserve to be where they are and need to be given more respect.

        Ridiculous statement.

        Those two teams are exactly where they are because they are playing rubbish footy.

        No one is disrespecting either team, however their form dictates that 18th and 17th is where they are at right now.

        • April 20th 2017 @ 12:33pm
          Slane said | April 20th 2017 @ 12:33pm | ! Report

          I was thinking the same thing. When a team has been smasbed by over 80 points in half of their games it is fair to say they deserve to be sitting at the foot of the ladder.

        • April 20th 2017 @ 2:16pm
          Swannies said | April 20th 2017 @ 2:16pm | ! Report

          A lot of people are saddened to see The MightyHawks at the bottom…may they quickly regroup. A level-headed coach, great supporters and genuine team players.

          • Roar Guru

            April 20th 2017 @ 3:00pm
            Ben of Phnom Penh said | April 20th 2017 @ 3:00pm | ! Report

            A lot of people are not. Someone has to prop up the bottom and no club has a divine right to avoid that particular role.

          • April 20th 2017 @ 3:07pm
            Milo said | April 20th 2017 @ 3:07pm | ! Report

            Yep that’s probably what they need.

          • April 20th 2017 @ 3:09pm
            hal said | April 20th 2017 @ 3:09pm | ! Report

            A lot of Cats fans are in their element seeing the old foe anchored to the bottom.

          • Roar Guru

            April 20th 2017 @ 4:24pm
            SportsFanGC said | April 20th 2017 @ 4:24pm | ! Report

            Only Hawthorn fans are sad about the Hawks sitting 18th with the worst percentage in the league after two absolute smashings at the hands of the Suns and Cats.

            Additionally, no one outside of Hawthorn fans are hoping that they re-group quickly.

            It is their time for some bottom 4 ladder positions.

            • April 20th 2017 @ 5:08pm
              George said | April 20th 2017 @ 5:08pm | ! Report

              I had to laugh when I saw AFL poll. 42% Hawks fans believe that current form is only blip vs 17% rivals clubs fans. After 10 plus amazing years it’s hard to recognise the era is over. Considering current list and no picks many painful years ahead for Hawks regardless what coach Hawks have.

          • April 20th 2017 @ 7:29pm
            Geoff from Bruce Stadium said | April 20th 2017 @ 7:29pm | ! Report

            Maybe a lot of Hawks supporters are saddened to see them at the bottom but no one else is

        • April 20th 2017 @ 4:28pm
          Mark said | April 20th 2017 @ 4:28pm | ! Report

          Give us a break, we’re 16th! (by .1% point)

        • April 20th 2017 @ 7:27pm
          Geoff from Bruce Stadium said | April 20th 2017 @ 7:27pm | ! Report

          Yep – rubbish comment – the Swans and the Hawks are exactly where they deserve to be. They don’t deserve any respect this season because at the moment they are the two worst teams in the comp. Having said that I have a feeling they may both get their first wins of the season this weekend.

      • April 20th 2017 @ 3:11pm
        Pope Paul VII said | April 20th 2017 @ 3:11pm | ! Report

        Sydney and Hawthorn are gunna get smacked

    • April 20th 2017 @ 8:02am
      Nigel Fauntleroy-St John III said | April 20th 2017 @ 8:02am | ! Report

      I was getting my suit measured by Kermit (my tailor at Henry Bucks) and he asked “how are we going to go in the battle of Toorak? Are you confident we can triumph on Monday night?” I looked at the old fellow with a puzzled expression, and replied “battle of Toorak? What the devil do you mean old son?” Kermit then replied “back in the days of zoning Melbourne and Richmond used to share Toorak and Armadale. We had all the parts to the west of Kooyong Road, which were part of the old City of Prahran, while they had all the parts to the east of said dividing line, under the old City of Malvern. Malvern and Malvern East belonged to them as well. While Richmond had Glen Iris to the south of Gardiners Creek and Hawthorn had Glen Iris to the north of the creek.” “Thank you for the education dear Kermit. We will vanquish that ghastly team, whose supporters tie their pullovers around their waists, as opposed to draping them over their shoulders. Many adult Richmond fans wear Football guernseys, which is a fashion no no.” I am in talks with the Anglican arch bishop to get him to perform the pre game service at Dendy Park in Brighton. We have lost two in a row and need to fire up. We are not gawn!!! The carbon emissions Range Rover cavalcade will head to the Gee from Brighton via Wesley and Grammar to pay homage to independent education. I am sticking with the Red Legs by 15 points. We will win the battle of Toorak and will claim the right to be the true Toorak football team.

      • April 20th 2017 @ 8:19am
        Franko said | April 20th 2017 @ 8:19am | ! Report

        Wow

      • April 20th 2017 @ 8:28am
        Baron Von Toorak said | April 20th 2017 @ 8:28am | ! Report

        We will triumph in this battle! Toorak is ours and has always been ours. It is our spiritual heartland. I have got a new lense in my gold rimmed monocle, so it is easier for me to view the game, from behind glass. I will be in attendance at Dendy pre battle. I look forward to hearing the sermon from upon high. With the almighty on our side we cannot but triumph! This is a war between civilisation (polo shirts, tweed sports coats, boaters, deck shoes, and moleskins) and barbarism (plaid shirts, jeans, sneakers, beanies, and lumber jack coats). It is luxury automotive vehicles versus old bombs. Go you almighty fuchsias bring victory back to the soil of Toorak!

        • April 20th 2017 @ 9:30am
          hal said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:30am | ! Report

          Is it mission accomplished?

      • April 20th 2017 @ 9:23am
        Basil Fotherington-Thomas said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:23am | ! Report

        Have no fear Fauntleroy old chap, our boys will triumph. They’re not a real football team, Richmond. Johnny-come-latelys as they say with no real history. 1885? Puh. Not like us blue bloods eh. Dirty black and yellow jerseys and a team full of vulgar thugs what. That number four needs to be outlawed and sent to Coventry eh? We don’t need rabble like that dirtying our Gee, especially along Our Wing.

        By jove Ive just checked the calendar and we’ve only seven games to go until the end of season old boy! Its time for the mighty Fuchsias to bloom! Good luck with that chap from the Cloth and see you at the club for pre-game G&Ts. Then onto the Room and the leather couches eh to see our boys vanquish the great unwashed by ten goals.

        • April 20th 2017 @ 9:42am
          Nigel Fauntleroy-St John III said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:42am | ! Report

          Quite! Quite!
          I booked my Aspen ski trip post September anticipating that we would be premiers.
          I went down to the petrol station in Toorak to fill the Range Rover up with petroleum distillate and I put some mud on my tyres and mud guards. That is right Dees fans; the mud is back down at the Toorak petrol station. They even have a little chap who fills up your vehicle for you, so your day trading is not disrupted.

          • April 20th 2017 @ 9:51pm
            Drake Wrigglesworth-Smith said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:51pm | ! Report

            Greetings old chap.

            Looking forward to seeing our boys go out there to catch those Tigers by the tail!

            Will be a barnstormer I say.

            We will be the toast of Toorak yet again come Monday night.

            Our boys will teach that Martin upstart with the neck tattoos and moles on his face a lesson or two about winning with class and dignity.

            I was at the Club last weekend and Reginald was telling me how this Martin fellow will be getting his million next year. How about that?

            He’ll be the richest man in Broadmeadows what

            • April 21st 2017 @ 6:46pm
              Nigel Fauntleroy-St John III said | April 21st 2017 @ 6:46pm | ! Report

              Drake old boy I was speaking Upton Waldorf-Greig and he told me that young Dusty (read: Dustbin) is carrying an injury, which puts the mighty fuchsias in good stead for the battle of Toorak. We will definitely catch those tigers by the tail and then some. Tally ho off we go old chap.

    • April 20th 2017 @ 8:16am
      true blue said | April 20th 2017 @ 8:16am | ! Report

      I am going to espouse a view that is controversial among some of my Carlton supporter friends, and that is we should not be playing Friday nights until we have earned it. Friday nights are not our God given right and I hope we don’t push for more of them next year. Friday night football should be awarded on merit. My memory may be short, but I can’t even remember the last time we won a night game. I don’t think it is even in our interests to play night football as we don’t win at night. I hope to see us give it a go and want to see more of SPS, Williamson, MacCreadie et al. Greg Denham said the jury is still out on these kids, while plough Wallace is impressed with what he has seen. Last year I picked us to beat Port but this year I pick Port. I hope we don’t make fools of ourselves and I hope we try and stick to team structures. We were good in the first half last week but our goal kicking let us down, so we didn’t capitalise on our early game dominance.

      • April 20th 2017 @ 9:02am
        George said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:02am | ! Report

        Second consecutive 6 day break for Carlton. Port playing some good footy. It could turn ugly in Adelaide for Carlton.
        Otherwise tipping surprise Swans over GWS.

      • Roar Guru

        April 20th 2017 @ 10:23am
        Paul D said | April 20th 2017 @ 10:23am | ! Report

        I must admit my heart sank a little when I pulled up the weekend’s viewing and saw Carlton v Port on Friday night

        • April 20th 2017 @ 10:57am
          true blue said | April 20th 2017 @ 10:57am | ! Report

          Yes I understand such feelings. Objectively speaking there are much better games to open the round with. We should stick to the rebuild and focus on playing afternoon games at Etihad.

          • April 20th 2017 @ 11:17am
            true blue said | April 20th 2017 @ 11:17am | ! Report

            Cam Polson and Phillips are in. Thomas and Kreuzer are out. I will be interested to see how Polson goes.

      • April 20th 2017 @ 11:18am
        mattyb said | April 20th 2017 @ 11:18am | ! Report

        Well said True Blue and spoken like a true genuine fan of this once mighty and proud club.
        When I saw the blues were playing Friday night I couldn’t see how they deserved it after some of their Friday night performances over recent seasons.
        There’s been plenty of talk Carlton will be playing finals the year after next but some of this talk has now been going on for year after year after year. It’s time to put up or shut up for the Blues.
        Let’s hope the blues can at least be competitive and finally start showing some genuine improvement. I’m sure people have differing opinions on what they have seen so far but I’ve been far from impressed.
        Be interesting what happens with prize recruits Palmer and Smeldts. I must admit I have absolutely no idea what’s going on there. Maybe something we havnt been told has occurred off field.
        Will be interesting also if Bolton sticks to his plan of playing so many talls,especially in defence. They are far to top heavy and I’d imagine they will revert to a more modern game style very shortly.
        Anything more than a 4-5 goal defeat and this tragic club is just slipping further and further behind.

        • April 20th 2017 @ 3:24pm
          true blue said | April 20th 2017 @ 3:24pm | ! Report

          Matty B: unfortunately our history is marred by loud mouth born to rule types like Menzies, John Elliott and his son. None of these buffoons had/ have any connection to the northern suburbs that Carlton represents. They jumped on board Carlton because there was status attached to supporting a VFL heavy weight. I have no doubt if Melbourne were still a powerhouse they would have barracked for them. Dick Pratt is an exception because he played for Carlton under 19’s. Unfortunately non ruling class types like Snapper from Port Phillip Bay prop up such arrogance with their idiotic and offensive rants, and Millhouse starts idiotic rumours, on his radio show, that Fyfe is coming to Carlton. These loud mouths don’t speak for Carlton’s northern suburban rank and file support base.

          • Roar Guru

            April 20th 2017 @ 10:46pm
            Col from Brissie said | April 20th 2017 @ 10:46pm | ! Report

            True Blue, if you are going to pot people be sure to get your facts right. Both Menzies and Elliott were/are lifelong Carlton supporters. They didn’t just jump on board as you have alleged and since when has it been a condition that you need to have a connection to certain suburbs before you can barrack for a team?

            • April 21st 2017 @ 10:26am
              true blue said | April 21st 2017 @ 10:26am | ! Report

              Fair point Col, it’s my political bias I guess. I should have used the Stan Zemanic example. Who came to Melbourne in 2002 and chose Carlton because of our history. That year we finished last.

        • April 20th 2017 @ 9:17pm
          Macca said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:17pm | ! Report

          Mattyb – can you point to where anyone has said Palmer and Smedts are prized recruits?

          And can you explain why a team with 10 or its 22 under 21 would be deemed to be slipping behind if they lose on the road to Port? Especially when you thought the blues wouldn’t win a game this year?

          And weren’t you criticising the blues for not going hard enough for youth in the rebuild?

        • April 20th 2017 @ 9:30pm
          Lofty said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:30pm | ! Report

          Correct me if I am wrong but I don’t think the got a Friday night game last year so eventually the AFL has to give us one. Every team gets a gig occasionally.
          As for so called prize recruits, that’s the first time I’ve heard them mentioned in that context. Had more to do with getting other deals done. Are you just making stuff up again?
          Lets be honest Mattyb. It would not matter what the blues do, you would not be impressed. You just like getting a reaction from blues supporters. You cant help yourself can you?

          • April 20th 2017 @ 9:53pm
            Macca said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:53pm | ! Report

            Yeah lofty the blues could kick 20 goals tomorrow night and win by 10 and Mattyb would only see negatives.

    • April 20th 2017 @ 9:04am
      hal said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:04am | ! Report

      I doubt that Tom Lynch will have easy supply this week. The GCS will not be able to play their front running bruise free brand against the Crows. Crows by plenty.

      Melbourne are gawn. Richmond by enough.

      Port to take care of Carlton.

      Geelong in a tough one against the Saints

      Freo at home against North.

      No excuses for West Coast against the cellar dwellers.

      The Dogs to knock over the Lions.

      GWS in a tight one against Sydney

      The Dons to put the final nail in Buckley’s coffin and Collingwood’s season.

    • Roar Guru

      April 20th 2017 @ 9:16am
      Wayne said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:16am | ! Report

      Port Adelaide – At home, should do it easy
      Bulldogs – Brisbane away, Dogs should do it easy
      Adelaide – Closer game than expected, but Crows last quarter to blow scoreline out
      GWS – Not confident. Depends on how Swans returning players perform
      Fremantle – It’s in Perth. Probably tip the other way if it was in Melbourne
      Geelong – Would have St.Kilda if they could score better. So many behinds…
      West Coast – Until Hawthorn give me a good reason to tip them, they are off the list
      Richmond – That April Premiership run looks pretty solid to continue
      Essendon – The way Collingwood lost. Essendon losing to Crows vs Collingwood losing to Saints. Upset in cards?

    • Roar Guru

      April 20th 2017 @ 9:26am
      Steve J said | April 20th 2017 @ 9:26am | ! Report

      To think after this round there could be 3 winless teams all of whom made up 3/4’s of the top 4 at this stage last season.

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