Future draft pick trading was always going to be a lottery and, for once, the roulette wheel might be coming up red, white and black.
If Hawthorn’s rebuilding slump continues, it won’t be the Hawks flying high, but the Saints marching into pick one. So let’s have a look at the winners and losers based on the current ladder.
St Kilda are easily the biggest winners of the future draft pick trading market this season if the ladder remains the same or similar. Not having a second-round draft pick is a complete non-event, with the Saints holding onto picks one and nine. Even if they moved up the ladder, the Hawthorn first-round pick is the one to watch.
It’s not clear whether Brisbane are winning, or merely breaking even with getting Port Adelaide’s first-round draft pick. It’s currently pick 12, but with Port playing okay this season so far, it could easily stay as a late first rounder.
There’s still nothing wrong with that, but the Lions would be hoping a Power outage hits, and they tumble down the ladder.
Gold Coast is the other big winner, not in the first round, but definitely in the second round. Hawthorn’s second-round pick (19), St Kilda’s (25) and even Richmond’s (high at 34) are still going to be good gets for a team that needs some love.
The currency can easily translate back to the trade table, as three good quality picks for academy ones will be of interest to Greater Western Sydney, Sydney and Brisbane too. There could be some horse trading, and quality players coming to the coast.
Geelong traded out their first-round draft pick to Carlton (and onto Richmond), which currently sits at the lofty pick 18. It’s still a first round that Geelong won’t be participating in, but so late in the party that I doubt the Cats would be disappointed.
If the rumours are that Geelong will make a play for Ablett, the 2017 draft might be a quiet one for the Cats.
This early in the piece, there is one that is standing out. Was Jaeger O’Meara and pick 33 worth picks one and 19? I didn’t think so, and Hawthorn fans who were hopeful of a quick rebuild back to the finals might have to wait until 2019 or 2020.
Coming into the draft at Pick 33 and then pick 37, they would be hopeful of diamonds in the rough falling through, or Gold Coast doing something stupid with their three second-round picks before the Hawks.
Of course, it is still really early in the season and things will likely change. But the Saints and Gold Coast Suns might have pulled off the heist of the trade period last year with Hawthorn if they stay rooted to the bottom.
A different argument would look at the merits of future draft pick trading, but surely people weren’t expecting Hawthorn to be sitting with Ross Lyon’s mate Owen.
But what do you think Roarers? Of the future draft picks in play in Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Geelong’s first rounders, which teams will come out ahead and which teams will be left behind?