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Here we are – the final round of the home-and-away season, the week that will separate the finalists from the rest and decide the wooden spoon.
If you’re wondering how all that figures together, wonder no more – I wrote out all the best and worst case scenarios for all the relevant teams on Wednesday.
You’ve got to hand it to the AFL, they’ve scheduled this round brilliantly without even knowing it – eight games involving at least one potential finalist, and a wooden spoon decider. No game is without impact.
Generally speaking, I’m tipping the team who has something at stake over the team who doesn’t – so that’s tips for the Bulldogs, Melbourne, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond right off the bat.
Of the lot, I reckon the biggest upset potential exists in the Collingwood versus Melbourne game, though Friday night’s match is close to a 50-50 proposition as well.
That leaves two games that feature finals fancies on both sides, and the spoon-off.
Brisbane have been in better form than North Melbourne in recent weeks, and the home ground advantage as well. Unfortunately for my Roos I believe a first wooden spoon since 1972 is the likely result. C’est la vie.
Which is a bigger concern for Geelong versus GWS – Geelong missing their captain, or GWS struggling to beat the best away? I’ve seen over the last two weeks that Geelong know how to win without Joel Selwood, but I’m yet to be convinced on the latter, so the Cats it is.
Adelaide are a lot like West Coast in some ways, except they are actually good. I expect this one to be decided to some degree by the games before it, as that will affect the teams’ motivation – that’s hard to predict though, so I’ll just pick Adelaide because they are good.
The last lock of the week for the year… Port Adelaide will absolutely slaughter Gold Coast in Gary Ablett’s last game for the club (assuming he gets up).
Maddy Friend
Hawthorn, Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond, Adelaide
The Bulldogs have everything to play for on Friday night, but I’m tipping the Hawks to get the win.
With a finals spot on the line, I expect the Dees to get over the Pies.
Brisbane has been playing with good energy and spirit recently, and I think they’ll be eager to get the win over North to end their season on a good note.
Geelong against GWS is the match of the round – the Cats will get the win at home, but in a close one.
I expect Adelaide to win in Perth, but I wouldn’t be surprised if West Coast mounted a serious challenge at home.
Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond should all get comfortable wins.
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Cameron Rose
Hawthorn, Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond, Adelaide
The last round of the season is upon us, and rarely are as many spots in the top two, four, six and eight still up for grabs, and the wooden spoon is still up in the air too.
Friday night’s game is the least consequential game of the round, which is a pity to kick off the weekend with. The Dogs looks dusted for the year, and the Hawks can win.
Melbourne should prove too strong for Collingwood, but should still make the eight even if they don’t.
Brisbane’s last three weeks have been better than North’s, so that’s reason enough to go with them. And with the big players North are shaping to be in the off-season, holding onto the number one draft pick is all-important.
Sydney will give Carlton a touch-up, although you suspect the Blues will try and provide nuisance value.
Geelong hosts GWS in the match-of the round, to possibly determine which one hosts the rematch in the first week of finals. The Cats will have the benefit of outrageously biased umpiring, the “noise of affirmation”, if their recent win over Richmond is anything to go by, but the Giants still look too strong.
Port basically needs to beat Gold Coast by more than Sydney beats Carlton, to stay ahead of them and be in line for a top four finish. They will.
Essendon will thump Fremantle, and Joe Daniher could kick half a dozen or more to stay in the Coleman race.
Richmond will be out of the top four by the time they play St Kilda, but winning will put them back in. I’ll back them in, with heart more than head.
Adelaide needs to beat West Coast to maintain top spot, if GWS beat Geelong. Regardless, they should be too slick for the Eagles.
| Round 23 | Josh Elliott | Maddy Friend | Tim Lane | Cam Rose | The Crowd |
| HAW vs WB | WB | HAW | WB | HAW | HAW |
| COL vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| BRI vs NM | BRI | BRI | BRI | BRI | BRI |
| SYD vs CAR | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| GEE vs GWS | GEE | GEE | GWS | GWS | GEE |
| PA vs GCS | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| ESS vs FRE | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS |
| RIC vs STK | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| WCE vs ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| Last week | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Total | 111 | 111 | 118 | 120 | 117 |