Flat track bullies. Downhill skiers! Both the Port Adelaide Power and the West Coast Eagles have been tarred with this brush from time to time in 2017. Now the time is ripe for one of them to prove the world wrong.
Let’s start with Port Adelaide – they have by all accounts had a brilliant season, one that has seen them return to finals for the first time in three years, and had them in contention for a top four spot as late as the final round.
They finish the year with the second highest percentage of any team in the comp, conceding the second least points, and scoring the second most – an excellent balance.
It’s a result made all the more remarkable by the fact that in our crowd-voted ladder prediction at the start of the 2017, the punters picked Port to finish 16th on the ladder – so kudos to them for proving us all quite wrong.
But – you knew there was going to be a but, didn’t you? – they’ve defeated only two of their fellow top eight sides all year, and one of those was a woefully out-of-form Sydney in Round 1. The other was their opponents today.
Speaking of West Coast, their season has been somewhere in between mildly disappointing and wildly disappointing, depending on whether or not you were dumb enough to say they’d win the flag in the pre-season.
They’ve actually beaten the top two teams on the ladder this year – but surprise surprise, both those wins came at home, and the latter in particular against an Adelaide Crows side whose mental focus during the game was on puzzling out what they wanted to watch on TV that night.
The only other top eight side the Eagles have beaten all year? Why, Port Adelaide of course. These two were made for each other.
Last five matches
Round 16, 2017 – West Coast Eagles 13.10.88 defeated by Port Adelaide Power 18.12.120
Round 7, 2017 – Port Adelaide Power 12.15.87 defeated by West Coast Eagles 15.7.97
Round 9, 2016 – Port Adelaide Power 13.8.86 defeated by West Coast Eagles 14.10.94
Round 6, 2015 – Port Adelaide Power 10.8.68 defeated by West Coast Eagles 11.12.78
Round 5, 2014 – West Coast Eagles 7.14.56 defeated by Port Adelaide Power 10.10.70
(AAP Image/David Mariuz)
Port Adelaide Power
IN: Jarman Impey
OUT: Aidyn Johnson (Omitted)B: Jasper Pittard, Tom Clurey, Dan Houston
HB: Darcy Byrne-Jones, Dougal Howard, Hamish Hartlett
C: Justin Westhoff, Ollie Wines, Jared Polec
HF: Sam Gray, Todd Marshall, Robbie Gray
F: Jarman Impey, Charlie Dixon, Chad Wingard
FOL: Paddy Ryder, Brad Ebert, Travis Boak
I/C: Sam Powell-Pepper, Jake Neade, Karl Amon, Riley Bonner
EMG: Aaron Young, Jackson Trengove, Aidyn JohnsonWest Coast Eagles
No changeB: Shannon Hurn, Eric Mackenzie, Tom Barrass
HB: Elliot Yeo, Jeremy McGovern, Brad Sheppard
C: Liam Duggan, Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff
HF: Jack Redden, Jack Darling, Lewis Jetta
F: Drew Petrie, Josh J Kennedy, Mark LeCras
FOL: Nathan Vardy, Sam Mitchell, Luke Shuey
I/C: Dom Sheed, Jamie Cripps, Luke Partington, Mark Hutchings
EMG: Chris Masten, Sharrod Wellingham, Will Schofield
A real shot at the prelim
After watching the GWS Giants crash out in the first of this weekend’s finals, both of these team will surely have thought to themselves, we’re a real chance to go far here.
Whichever wins this one will go on to face the Giants at Spotless Stadium next week. They’ll have all the confidence that comes from a good win, and they’ll know GWS can be beaten.
After that? A meeting with the Richmond Tigers at the MCG – a pretty intimidating prospect after the fearsome display Richmond put together on Friday night.
Still, anything’s possible in finals. If you put yourself in the mix you never know what good luck might fall your way.
Keep Hinkley’s good finals record going? Yes we Ken
Port’s revival this year has no doubt been in part due to the good work of Ken Hinkley, who amazingly was one of the coaches said to be on the chopping block at the start of the year.
Instead he has guided the Power back into finals, and that should be particularly exciting for them given where past finals campaigns under him have wound up.
In 2013 they scored an upset win over Collingwood, in 2014 they blew away Richmond, upset the Dockers and came within one kick of going to the grand final.
Having a few away finals wins under the belt is a pretty impressive achievement, but of course, we are talking about three years ago – ancient history.
If Hinkley can again take the Power just that little bit further than most pundits think they can go, it’ll be another feather in his cap and cement him as the right longterm choice to coach Port Adelaide.
Can Kennedy do it when it counts?
Josh J Kennedy played 17 games in the home-and-away season this year, kicking 65 goals, and would certainly have earned himself a third consecutive Coleman Medal if it weren’t for his injury interruption.
However… he played against top eight sides six times this year for a return of fourteen goals (a little over two per game).
By way of contrast, he had 11 games against sides outside the top eight and kicked 51 goals, almost five goals a game against the lesser lights of the competition.
He’s an elite player, Kennedy. And it’s fair to say he’s not the only key forward in the comp who tends to have an easier time against the worse teams.
However I’ve never been too comfortable calling him the best key forward in the game when there’s someone like Lance Franklin around who has kicked these game-changing bags on the big stage rather than in off-Broadway productions.
A big performance from Kennedy would go a long way to changing that.
(Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images)
Prediction
Either of these teams is capable of winning this match with their best form, but West Coast’s best form hasn’t genuinely been seen in a little while.
Yes, they beat the Crows in Round 23 – but that was a dead rubber where Adelaide had nothing to play for, and West Coast everything. I’m not buying it.
The Eagles ultimately should consider themselves extremely lucky to have snuck into finals, and there’s a reasonable-sized gap between them and the other finalists.
I expect the Power to show us all just how big that gap is.
Port Adelaide Power to win by 36.
Where: Adelaide Oval
When: 7:50pm AEST Saturday 9 September
TV: Seven, live, Fox Sports, live
Betting: Port Adelaide $1.49, West Coast $2.65
Head-to-head: Port Adelaide 18, West Coast 12
Last five: Port Adelaide 2, West Coast 3
In finals: Port Adelaide 1, West Coast 0
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