Anticipation for this weekend’s Bledisloe Cup match is reaching fever pitch. For rugby fans, this is like the opening Test of the Ashes, the final leg of the football World Cup, or the NBA playoffs. It’s the grand stage of our sport.
One can only hope it lives up to the hype. And if the opening Tri Nations matches are anything to go by, it should.
This match could well decide who goes on to win the Tri Nations. Back-to-back wins for the Aussies will make them two from two, and shoot them to the top of the table.
A loss for New Zealand will leave them in the precarious situation of being one from three, with a lot of ground to make up on the road.
It is hard to tip a winner here, when both teams are so evenly matched, so I have broken the teams up into key areas where the positional match-ups will decide the outcome.
Front Row
From the three matches I have seen so far, the edge here definitely lies with New Zealand. While there has been marked improvements from the Wallabies, they still trail the Kiwis here. The combination of Sommerville, Woodcock and Hore is the best in the comp.
NZ 5/5 – Aus 3.5/5
Middle Row
Ah, the achilles heel of the mighty All Blacks! Ali Williams’ return is crucial, and they will need him to be on the top of his game for New Zealand to be a show here. Thorn adds the leadership and brute force that they were sorely missing against South Africa. The Wallabies’ middle-row was impressive against South Africa, and even without Vickerman, they have a huge edge over New Zealand’s aerial abilities.
NZ 2.5/5 – Aus 4/5
Backrow
Will he or won’t he? Richie McCaws presence, or lack of it, will be the deciding factor in this battle. Burger was allowed to run rampant in the last match without McCaw, and as good as Soialo is, he is no Richie. The Aussies have two of the best loosies at their disposal in Waugh and Smith, while Elsom has been tremendous. Kaino and Thompson were both found wanting in their last match, and Braid hasn’t had any international time this year. Australians are the favourite in this matchup.
Aus 5/5 – NZ 3.5/5 (McCaw in=5/5)
Halves
Carter is a genius. Ellis is not. New Zealand should dominate this matchup, yet are slight favourites against an ever-improving Burgess and Giteau, due to lack of progress being made from Ellis. His backup, Cowan, is much the same player.
NZ 4/5 – Aus 3.5/5
Midfield
The midfield battle was heavily in favour of Australia until Captain Corageous’ last minute withdrawl. Instead of capitalizing on this by retaining Conrad Smiths’ services, the New Zealand coaches are persisting with rookie Richard Kahui. This has evened the contest, an area Australia look set to dominate.
NZ 4/5 – AUS 4/5
Back three
Can someone explain why Rudi Wulf has been replaced? Sivivatu’s form as been sub-par in this series, and McDonalds injury is a real blow to the blacks. While they have the ever-consistent Mils Muliana at the back to rely on, their set piece moves haven’t set the world on fire and they look underdone as a whole. This is Australia’s weakest matchup, and looks possibly the slowest and weakest back three of all 3. An edge to the All Blacks.
NZ 5/5 – AUS 3/5
Coaching
Deans is a super-coach who rarely makes a mistake; Henry often has confusing “what the?” moments in coaching, substitutions and selections. Deans also has more experience under the new ELVS, while Henry has years of international experience. Deans wins here.
NZ 4/5 – AUS 5/5
Misc items
Home ground advantage +1 to Australia
Momentum + 1 to Australia
Overall
NZ 28
AUS 30
This will be another epic, but I give Australia the slight edge. By 6 points.
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