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Australia is tipped to exceed its own Olympic expectations in Beijing with leading US sports journal Sports Illustrated (SI) predicting a top four finish on the medal tally with a record 22 gold.
The Australian Olympic Committee has made no secret of its desire to remain among the top five nations in the world after their annual benchmark studies predicted a slip to sixth on the medal table.
While the SI predictions include cyclist Cadel Evans taking gold in the individual time trial, which he officially pulled out on Thursday, it is still a timely boost to Australia with over half the team now in the village and just a week to go until the opening ceremony.
AOC boss John Coates insists all the studies and predictions become meaningless at Games time, however he remains confident the Australians can reach their lofty targets.
“I still think this is a very, very strong team and I am still very confident that the team can finish in the top five. It is a team of great quality,” said Coates.
“But I think you never quite know where your medals are going to come from. A world champion one year isn’t necessarily the next.”
SI predicts the Aussie team will take home 54 medals in Beijing – 22 gold, 14 silver and 18 bronze.
They say that would put Australia fourth on the medal tally, behind the US (121), China (102) and Russia (75).
AOC studies at the end of 2007 had Australia winning 44 medals – 20 gold, 10 silver and 14 bronze – to be in sixth place behind Germany and France.
The Aussies won 17 gold in Athens four years ago, as well as 16 silver and 16 bronze to leave them fourth on the medal table.
SI says most of Australia’s gold will be won in the pool, with the women’s team expected to win nine races – three of those by Libby Trickett – and five silver and bronze medals.
Trickett would finish with five gold medals with a further two relay wins, thrusting her past Ian Thorpe as Australia’s greatest Olympian with six gold medals.
Grant Hackett will also re-write history, joining Dawn Fraser as the only swimmer to win gold in the same event at three successive Games as he wins the 1500m freestyle.
Hackett is tipped to also win the 400m freestyle and world record holder Eamon Sullivan gold in the 50m freestyle as the men collect a further four minor medals.
Australia’s sailors (three gold), men’s hockey, shooters Warren Potent and Michael Diamond, men’s pairs rowing and triathlete Emma Snowsill are the other champions according to the magazine.
The biggest disappointment expected is at the velodrome where our track cyclists won six gold in Athens, SI tips only one gold to sprinter Anna Meares plus two silver and one bronze in Beijing.
Two-time Olympic track cycling champion Ryan Bayley doesn’t rate a mention as he has not won a world title since his Athens sprint and keirin heroics.
Bayley on Friday admitted he was concerned about his own preparation but remains confident he can be a factor in the sprint events.
“It’s hard to say, it’s really been up and down,” he said from the track team’s base in Buttgen, Germany.
“It’s hard to predict what’s actually going to happen.”
Kayaking veteran Clint Robinson on Friday declared this would be his fifth and final Olympic Games and he plans to bookend his career with gold medals.
The 36-year-old Queenslander won K1 1000m gold in Barcelona in 1992 and will spearhead Australia’s K2 500m and K4 1000m teams here in Beijing.