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Hey brother, can Cousins deliver the goods?

Roar Guru
25th March, 2009
7
1219 Reads

Ben Cousins of West Coast in action during the AFL Round 18 match between the West Coast Eagles and Fremantle Dockers at the Subiaco Oval. Slattery Image Group

So here we are, set to go for what promises to be the most interesting AFL season in many moons, kicking off on Thursday night with a ripper of a clash between Richmond and Carlton. A sellout between the teams that finished ninth and eleventh last year? Strange, but true.

Both teams, whose rivalry is among the keenest in the competition, are expected to start showing their supporters that better times are ahead after years in the wilderness.

More than 80,000 will pack the MCG as Ben Cousins takes the first step in his comeback, fortuitously for the promoters against the team led by one of his former brothers-in-arms at the West Coast Eagles, Chris Judd.

If he stays fit, Judd could easily snare another Brownlow Medal to add to the one he won in 2004. His ability to read the game, win the ball and make best use of it makes him still the best player in the competition.

It’s a pretty safe bet that Cousins won’t be in Brownlow contention, but the Tigers’ gamble in picking him up off the bottom of the draft birdcage, where he was languishing like a quail waiting for the canaries to drop a morsel of seed, could turn out to be a masterstroke.

I’m tipping that by halfway through the season Cousins’ hamstring, rather than any remaining drugs problems he may or may not have, will be among the hottest subjects of media scrutiny in the game.

We’ve already had some pundits predicting that he’ll play all 22 games and others tipping fewer than a dozen. Somewhere in between, say16 to 18, will be enough to repay the Tigers for their punt on him, because he’ll be there when the whips are cracking. It’s called class.

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Put it this way: who would you rather have on your books, Cousins or Setanta o’hAilpin?

I’m tipping the Tigers to win, probably by a margin somewhere in the 20s (points, not goals, I hasten to add).

Then, as if one blockbuster to start the season wasn’t enough, we have a grand final replay on Friday night.

The Cats will win this one comfortably, given the determination they showed in the NAB Cup final to atone for the mistakes they made in September.

They’ll probably win the flag again, too. It would be a bit much to expect Stuart Dew (is he REALLY only 29?) to pull another rabbit out of the hat at such a vital time.

The rest of the round is really only to make up the numbers, although it will be interesting to see how the Western Bulldogs fare against Fremantle on Sunday.

The Doggies, who I think are the only team likely to prevent another Cats-Hawks grand final, snuck home by three points at Subiaco last year, one of the Dockers’ many single-figure losses.

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A bigger margin would indicate that September could be coloured red, white and blue, as well as being an unfortunate start for Fremantle’s mental state going into what they should expect to a year of significant improvement. Doggies by three goals.

St Kilda v Sydney on Saturday night will be another game providing a good guide to the two teams’ season prospects.

I don’t think either team will make the eight – the always-promising-to-do-better-this-time Saints have let themselves and their supporters down so many times I don’t think they believe in the hype themselves any more, and the Swans have too many pensioners playing one year too many, with even a couple of those unavailable.

The Saints should win this one by 14 to 18 points, mainly because of home-ground advantage.

Home turf should also be enough to get Collingwood home over Adelaide, although it won’t be any picnic.

As well as Fremantle, I’m expecting Port Adelaide and the Weagles to do better this year than last, too. Port, at home, should be able to shade the inexperienced and under-strength Bombers, but Brisbane will give rookie coach Michael Voss a first-up win over West Coast at the Gabba.

And Melbourne will have to wait at least another couple of weeks for the chance to break their duck, with North likely five- or six-goal winners.

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At this stage the Dees would have to be equal favourites to retain the wooden spoon, although the Bombers will put in a strong challenge.

My top eight after round 22:
Geelong
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
Brisbane

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