Germany's Lukas Podolski, left, and Australia's Ljubo Milicevic, right, challenge for the ball during the Confederations Cup match between Germany and Australia at the FIFA World Cup stadium in Frankfurt, western Germany, Wednesday, June 15, 2005. AP Photo/Michael Probst
The politicking and backroom power-play of FIFA and its Confederations within a World Cup year is as active as any other time previous.
With two FIFA World Cups to be awarded simultaneously, there is debate over the expected return of the World Cup to the UEFA Confederation and the cancellation of the rotation system for the future World Cups, which would have seen each FIFA Confederation share it.
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Some commentators are questioning whether a strong showing by the African teams at 2010 FIFA World Cup is cause for CAF (Confederation of African Football) to obtain one of the AFC (Asian Football Confederation) World Cup spots.
Currently CAF has five places for each World Cup whilst AFC has 4.5 places, with the 0.5 place to be contested with OFC (Oceania Football Confederation) World Cup Qualifying winner.
The only reason this type of rhetoric would be debated, and others similar, would be that the AFC may be seen as the weakest FIFA Confederation other than the OFC.
Where do the FIFA Confederations really sit against each other?
Possibly CAF should question whether 0.5 place be determined with CONMEBOL (South American Football Confederation) for future World Cups.
Another debate closer to home is whether Australia, by becoming a member of the AFC, has in fact just gained an easier passage and taken a place away from a genuine Asian country to the World Cup.
It could be argued that the AFC needed Australia as much as Australia needed the AFC.
Certainly Australia has only added more strength to the Top 10 teams within the AFC.
However, one of the most important elements that Australia brings to the AFC is its European football experience. The other top AFC teams have struggled to play in Europe and against European teams.
The same cannot be said about the Socceroos.
FIFA’s July rankings have placed Australia currently 16th, and certainly questions about the rankings validity have been raised. However, the rankings through a formula take into account several factors, with one important factor being the Confederations strength.
This affects each teams ranking from each FIFA Confederation. The stronger the Confederation, the more points a country receives. And this is also the case when two teams from the same Confederation play off against each other.
The strength of each FIFA Confederation is determined by the amount of ‘wins’ from the previous three FIFA World Cups. So at South Africa 2010, your second team should be any of the AFC teams competing, as each win is a win for the AFC.
Some interesting facts from the last three World Cups and the last four years of FIFA rankings by Confederation:
UEFA are clearly on top, the AFC is fighting it out with CONCACAF (North and Central America Football Confederation), and surprisingly CAF are making some big inroads into CONMEBOL.
All the countries have been separated into their respective FIFA Confederation based on the month of July from 2006 to 2009.
Each FIFA Confederation was tracked by two indicators: firstly, the total average ranking of each Confederation, and secondly, the top ten average ranking for each Confederation.
On the total average ranking for each Confederation, the placing was first CONMEBOL with an average rank of 36th, second UEFA with an average rank of 61st, third CAF on average rank of 105th, forth place with average ranking of 130th is AFC, fifth place at 131st is CONCACAF, and the OFC at 168th.
In this instance, CONMEBOL has a clear advantage as the Confederation is made up of only 10 countries, whereas UEFA has 53 counties.
However, when you look for just the cream, the top ten countries of each FIFA Confederation are separated and the average ranking is determined over the ten countries, there is an interesting shift in placing amongst two of the Confederations.
The UEFA is clearly in first position, as its top ten countries over the past four years have a collective average ranking of 7th, second is the CAF with a ranking of 34th, third is the CONMEBOL with an average ranking of 36th, fourth is the CONCACAF sitting with a ranking of 59th, the AFC placed fifth with an average ranking from the past 4 years of 61st and the OFC at 165th for its average top ten countries.
• UEFA have held their average ranking of 7th over the last two years, 8th was their lowest ranking;
• CONMEBOL’s highest ranking was 33rd in 2006 and it’s lowest ranking at 38th in 2008;
• CAF highest ranking was 28th in 2006 and lowest at 39th July 2009;
• CONCACAF highest ranking was 52nd in 2006 and lowest at 68th in 2008;
• AFC highest ranking was 56th in 2008 and lowest rank of 66th in 2006;
When looking at the last three FIFA World Cups by Confederation, the CAF countries could be seen as falling short of their expectations and certainly the European teams don’t perform as well away then when on their home soil.
UEFA have clearly won the majority of games – a total of 95 wins out of 152 in total over the last three World Cups including 3rd and 4th play off games, and has achieved two World Champions in France and Italy.
CONMEBOL are second with 30 of the 152 wins and one World Champion, Brazil.
The next three Confederations are separated by two wins, CAF (10), AFC (8) and CONCACAF (8) wins over the last three World Cups.
The OFC has a solitary win, that of Australia from 2006.
1998 World Cup – France
• CONMEBOL with 10 wins, four countries progressing into 2nd Round, and Runners Up Brazil ranked 1st in the world;
• CONCACAF with 2 wins, and Mexico ranked 4th eliminated in 2nd Round;
• UEFA with 33 wins, ten countries progressing into 2nd Round and World Champion France ranked 18th in the world;
• AFC with 1 win, no country progressing out of the group stage;
• CAF with 3 wins, and Nigeria ranked 74th eliminated in 2nd Round;
2002 World Cup – Japan/Korea
• CONCACAF with 6 wins, 2 countries into 2nd Round, USA ranked 13th eliminated in Quarter Finals;
• UEFA with 25 wins, 9 countries into 2nd Round, and Runners Up Turkey ranked 22nd in the world;
• CONMEBOL with 10 wins, 2 countries into 2nd Round, and World Champions Brazil ranked 1st in the world;
• CAF with 3 wins, and Senegal ranked 42nd eliminated in Quarter Finals;
• AFC with 6 wins, 2 countries into 2nd Round, South Korea ranked 40th eliminated in Semi Finals;
• Netherlands didn’t qualify and were ranked 9th in the world going into the 2002 World Cup;
• China ranked 50th were the lowest ranked country competing at 2002 World Cup;
2006 World Cup – Germany
• UEFA with 37 wins, 10 countries into 2nd Round, and World Champions Italy ranked 13th in the world;
• CONMEBOL with 10 wins, 3 countries into 2nd Round, Brazil 1st and Argentina 9th eliminated in Quarter Finals;
• CONCACAF with zero wins, no country progressing out of the group stage;
• AFC with 1 win, no country progressing out of the group stage;
• OFC with 1 win, and Australia ranked 42nd eliminated in 2nd Round;
• CAF with 4 wins, and Ghana ranked 48th eliminated in 2nd Round;
• Germany were ranked 19th going into their World Cup and eliminated in the Semi Finals by Italy;
• Spain & USA both ranked 5th and Mexico ranked 4th at the time of the World Cup, only Spain progressed out of group stage;
So in South Africa, one would expect CAF competing countries to make the most of the ‘home ground’ advantage and better their previous best at a World Cup of four wins at Germany, and have one country advance to the Quarters or possibly Semi Finals.
Who from the AFC or CONCACAF is going to perform on the distant rainbow coloured lands? Neither Confederation had a country progress into the 2nd Round at the last World Cup.
The significance is that after the 2010 World Cup, the 1998 World Cup results and Confederation ‘wins’ are disregarded.
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