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I believe that the NRL season has four distinct phases. The first phase is the pre-Origin competition. This phase is where teams hope to get off to a good start.
You have some teams sprint out of the gates and other teams slowly build their structure and style of play.
Form in this phase can be ignored as it is often not relevant to the race going into the finals at the end of the season.
We have had many teams in the recent past do really well at this part of the season. Examples are the Cowboys and the Titans (my team).
In the past, these teams have really come out of the blocks to usually fall over later on in the year. What teams want to get out of this early stage of the season is some good combinations and some good wins, not blinding form.
2nd Phase: Origin
This phase generally sees the teams that are affected by heavy representative duties just hang on for dear life as they have to deal with injuries and players being absent due to Queensland or NSW honours.
In this phase, you will see lots of upsets: teams such as the Raiders, Souths and Panthers will see this is an opportunity to claw their way closer to the eight with an upset or two.
The teams already entrenched in the eight generally like to play ugly footy and go for wins as this presents a perfect spring-board into the next phase.
Phase 3: The Run Home
This is, in my opinion, where the NRL season really starts.
You can be in the top 4 at this point and still miss out on the finals, or just make the eight and get bundled out first week. On the flip side, you could do a West Tigers from 2005 and rise from the depths of the ladder to win a Grand Final.
This brings me to my main point.
It is what happens from tonight on that will secure your place in the finals and further.
We have seen many a team lose the momentum and have the season finish on a whimper. This is where all teams will look to start winning pretty. No more ugly wins. They want that prized momentum.
Look at the Warriors last year. They played great footy and went really well, just falling over at the last hurdle.
I think that any team from the Raiders up could make the eight if they have a great run home with form and fitness. A smoky for me is Souths.
Some of their main players have shown a little form recently and they will be hoping to turn things around.
4th and Final Phase, the finals
This is obviously where all the hard work plays out. The teams that have had a good run into the finals can go in with all the confidence in the world and look to knock off some of the more fancied opposition.
Obviously, emotion and momentum will only take you so far in the finals, as the better team seems to find a way to make it to the Grand Final.
But I would like to think that sometimes the underdog can make it, too.
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