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Perth's Wayne Shroj (22) and Sydney's Beau Busch go for the ball during Round 16 of the Hyundai A-League between Sydney FC and Perth Glory in Sydney. AAP Image/Jenny Evans
We’re in for another tight one, it seems. If there are any confident predictions to make ahead of the latest A-League season, which kicks off with Thursday’s Etihad opener between the Victory and the Mariners, it is that the season is likely to be as close as ever.
The introduction of two new teams and the FFA’s subsequent stretching of the finals cut-off from four to six will ensure the race remains tight till the end, no doubt keeping the interest high for most teams and their fans.
Given the salary cap restrictions and the fact there have hitherto only been eight teams, the closeness of the competition has been its hallmark, with results as hard to predict as three points are to come by.
Last season there was only 20 points between top (Melbourne, 38 points) and bottom (Newcastle), with two teams only two points outside the four.
The season before was even tighter, with 14 points separating top (Central Coast, 34) and bottom (Wellington), and only three points between first and fourth.
Indeed, season three was ridiculously close, and not only in terms of the point differential. A break-down of the results highlights this.
In total there were 28 regular season draws, one in three matches. By the end of the first third of the season (seven rounds), 25 of the 28 games finished in either a draw (13 games) or one-goal winning margin (12 games).
That trend continued in the second third of the season, with 21 of 28 games finishing with a margin of one goal or less. Ten of those were drawn.
As the race to the finals intensified, there were only five draws in the final 28 games.
Overall, 63 of the 84 regular season games finished with a margin of a goal or less.
Even during the first two seasons, when the NZ Knights were the whipping boys, the margins elsewhere were tight.
In the inaugural season, while the gap between top placed Adelaide (43) and bottom placed New Zealand (6) was massive, the gap between second (Sydney, 36) and seventh (Melbourne) was only 10 points.
It was a similar trend in the second season, where Melbourne bolted (45), but the gap between second (Adelaide, 33) and bottom placed NZ (19) was tighter.
Looking ahead, this season promises much the same if the pre-season is anything to go by.
Of the 17 pre-season games played between A-League clubs, 12 have finished with a winner, with five drawn. On the surface that sounds like a pretty handy ratio of results: draws.
But scratch surface and you realise that eight of the 12 wins have been by only a one goal margin.
Only Sydney (twice), Gold Coast and Brisbane have won games by more than two goals. Three of those four wins by two goals or more have been against the North Queensland Fury, while the other was a Sydney 2-0 win over a Newcastle team in the early days of transition between coaches.
Indeed, while North Queensland have been the pre-season whipping boys, losing five of their seven games against A-League opposition, most of the damage was done in their first four games, all of which they lost, scoring none and conceding 11.
But in the past three games against A-League opposition they have won two (against Adelaide and Brisbane) and lost narrowly in Mandurah to Perth.
Robbie Fowler and David Williams are said to have been impressing, suggesting the Fury might be more competitive than first thought. Factor opposition travelling north into the heat and you have another Fury equaliser.
Comparing only the results against other A-League teams, the most impressive pre-season has come from Gold Coast, who have won two and drawn one.
With Porter, Smeltz, Minniecon and Milson profiting from the creativity of Culina and Robson, the Coast look to have a productive from third, but there appears a couple of question marks about the centre of their defence and overall depth, with journeymen like Caravella, Fitzsimmons, Rees and Pantelidis needing to take this chance.
If Thwaite, Piorkowski and Adam Griffiths are productive in their defensive duties, Gold Coast can do anything. Looking forward to seeing Adama Traore, and what type of football Bleiberg promotes.
Not far behind United in terms of pre-season form are Sydney, with two wins and two draws. They have had the lengthiest pre-season and look to now be well organised.
What has really impressed has been Lavicka’s ability to build the kids into his template. Not only has it given them mileage and experience, but it has added quality depth, and that appears Sydney’s biggest strength this season.
Lavicka now knows the likes of Gan, Grant, Jurman, Danning, Payne and Cairncross can do a job for him, whenever.
With the likes of McFlynn and Brosque now the team leaders, Sydney should be right in the premiership mix, but Lavicka would do well to get Musialik and Bridge focused and firing.
The defending champions have only played A-League opposition twice and have a similar record to Sydney, with a win (against Adelaide) and a draw (against Wellington).
It has been a quiet pre-season, but Melbourne still has the depth to challenge Sydney all the way. Little doubt they’ll be banking on familiarity.
The old saying, ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ seems to apply, but the big question will be just how much have the others caught up?
Adelaide and Brisbane are both interesting and had identical unproductive pre-seasons against A-league opposition; played 3, won 1, lost 2.
Adelaide will really need Owusu and Cristiano to strike an accord, while Vidmar will hope Shin and Hughes make an impression breaking forward.
If the likes of Mullen, Jamieson, Marrone, Barbiero and Monterosso can continue to develop, United should be in the top six mix, especially if they can find a way to cover Ognenovski’s loss.
We know from his time with the Socceroos that Farina likes experience, and at Brisbane he keeps the faith in the likes of Tiatto, Moore, Miller and Packer.
But he will need his talented crop of kids – Devere, Zullo, Oar, Nichols, Cernak, Kruse and Sarota – to really step up.
Central Coast’s horrible 2009 has been well documented, yet despite being without a win in a competitive match, their short pre-season has been more encouraging, with a narrow win over the Fury followed by draws against Sydney, Gold Coast and Wellington.
Lawrie McKinna has gone back to basics, bringing in an experienced central defender (as I suggested he should in this Roar piece) in Chris Doig, and the proof has been in the fact they have kept three clean sheets against other A-Leaguers.
The weakness though still appears to be in central midfield. Shane Huke will need to vastly improve on what we saw in the ACL or the name Jedinak will continue to get mentioned.
Other than the two new-starters, perhaps the liveliest recruiters have been Perth Glory.
This might mean they take a little while to gel, but when they do, they appear to have the depth and quality to score goals.
I’m particularly looking forward to seeing if Dadi, Shroj, Sikora and Pellegrino can bring the best out of the likes of Sterjovski and Jelic.
If these guys can click in the front third, watch out.
Another interesting front third is that of Wellington. While they’ve lost Smeltz, they’ve recruiting well in snaring Diego and Ifill, while there’ll be plenty of pressure on Greenacre.
By adding numbers, the ‘Nix look to have strengthened their squad, and two pre-season draws to Melbourne and the Mariners suggest they will be competitive.
After finishing bottom last season, being competitive and stable will also be Newcastle’s aim.
If they can get consistent quality from the likes of Vignaroli, Milicevic, Topor-Stanley, Song, Kantarovski, Elrich, Thompson, Wheelhouse and Petrovski, they certainly have the depth to be competitive, but Culina might need a little time to get it all working.
TAB Sportsbet has the teams ranked as such; Melbourne $2.40, Brisbane $4.50, Sydney $6, Gold Coast $7, Adelaide $11, Central Coast $13, Perth $17, Newcastle $26, North Queensland $41, Wellington $51.
I think they’re pretty much bag-on, with my order varying only slightly; Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Perth, Newcastle, Central Coast, Wellington, North Queensland.
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